Evaluating Kirk Cousins' Long-Term Potential as a Fantasy QB After Week 4

Snap judgments go hand in hand with fantasy football. Wait too long on adding a player, and another eager owner will swoop in before you can make a well-informed decision.

Those who rushed to conclusions learned the hard way with Kirk Cousins, especially if they inserted Washington's new quarterback into their Week 4 starting lineup.

The 26-year-old became a must-add after torching the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles for 677 yards and five touchdowns. Against the New York Giants, however, he proved mortal.

CMP	ATT	PASS YDs	YDs/ATT	TDs	INTs
19	33	257	7.8	1	4

Wait, mortal isn't the word I'm looking for. Bad? Yep, bad is better, and even that's a kind description.

None of those four interceptions were of the fluke variety like the touchdown-turned-pick saddled to Eli Manning. A rattled Cousins missed badly, and Newsday's Bob Glauber reported that the Giants had his flaws well-scouted.

At the time he replaced Robert Griffin III, few people stopped to analyze the level of competition Cousins faced. The Eagles rank 30th in passing defense and have three sacks in as many games. The Jaguars are the Jaguars, rating last against the pass.

As slyly noted by Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey, this is the first defense Cousins faced this season that can play defense.

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Be fair to Kirk Cousins though, it's not his fault this defense can rush the passer and cover receivers.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 26, 2014"

Now that the honeymoon phase was pummeled to a crippling end, let's rewind to Cousins' past production to examine a larger sample size of his play. Fair warning: His 2013 numbers are not pretty.

Following Cousins' game against Jacksonville, Grantland's Bill Barnwell urged readers not to get too excited.

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Of the 47 quarterbacks who threw 200 passes or more in the regular season and playoffs between 2012 and 2013, Cousins was 43rd in completion percentage and yards per attempt, 44th in passer rating, and 46th in interception rate. His rate numbers are an almost exact duplicate for Mark Sanchez’s final season as the starter in New York, when he completed 54.3 percent of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt. Cousins turns the ball over more frequently than Sanchez did that final year, and he didn’t even get attacked by any offensive linemen.

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While everyone praised him as Washington's best option under center, even he essentially identified himself as a stopgap, per USA Today's Gary Mihoces.

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[Griffin] was drafted high for a reason. He's had success here. He's done a lot of good things. He's done nothing to have that be any different. 

So this is his team, and it's my job as a backup on this team to hopefully when he comes back give him a team with a good record and put him in a good spot to have success down the stretch. By no means does that say that I can't go in there as a backup and hopefully get the job done.

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In leagues that start one quarterback, he's nothing more than a matchup play. For now, he's a No. 2 option to place somewhere between No. 15-20 among Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Geno Smith. I wouldn't blame you for dumping Cousins if Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater shines on Sunday.

Starting him against the Seattle Seahawks in a one-quarterback league next week is this year's equivalent of the Thad Lewis Challenge. You're asking for a loss. The following game at the Arizona Cardinals isn't particularly better.

From Weeks 8-11, the schedule clears up with the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That stretch could represent his last stand if Griffin enjoys a timely recovery. Cousins will serve as a solid plug-in option if your starter has a bye.

If Griffin doesn't return in 2014, the ultimate opportunist could envision Cousins paying off way down the road. In Week 16, when many fantasy championships are on the line, he faces the Eagles again. Bold enough to put your title in the hands of a glorified second-stringer?