Making the Call on Week 4's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

Bye-week season is here in the NFL.

For some fantasy football owners, that is panic season, especially with such fantasy juggernauts benched as quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson, receivers Demaryius Thomas and A.J. Green, running backs Giovani Bernard and Marshawn Lynch, and tight ends Julius Thomas and...well, that's it there.

Add to the bye-week madness the injuries that have piled up in the first three weeks and, perhaps, the pressure of being below .500 in your fantasy league, and there is real pressure on starter choices this week. 

Never fear—here are some of this week's toughest lineup decisions made for you based on opportunity, matchup or quality of play.

Start: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Last week Jonathan Stewart seemed like a nice option given DeAngelo Williams was out with injury and Mike Tolbert was hampered with one. Then the injury bug hit Stewart.

A knee injury knocked him from the game and threatens to keep him out for much longer. Tolbert was also injured, per Max Henson of Panthers.com, leaving the Carolina Panthers dangerously thin at the running back position.

Good thing Williams is coming back from his injury.

The dreaded Carolina back is going to be free from meddling from other running backs this week, likely garnering a lead back's share of touches. That alone should be tempting for fantasy owners perhaps scrambling for a starter during the bye week.

According to Jonathan Jones and Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, head coach Ron Rivera said Williams has been taking plenty of snaps at practice in anticipation for Week 4:

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Today he took every snap he was supposed to. I think we had 42 total snaps and I’m going to bet he took 30 of them. Hopefully (Thursday) he’ll feel pretty good in the morning, no residual. And then he’ll take a few more snaps each day.

"

It might be a bit optimistic to expect a big game out of a guy who rarely does big things in the fantasy realm these days, but there are too many positive signs this week to ignore for Williams.

Fantasy Prediction: 21 attempts, 95 yards, one TD; three receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Who else is going to score fantasy points for the Panthers?

Sit: Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets

USA TODAY Sports

This may be self-evident given the horrendous stat lines he has put up over the past couple of weeks, but there is little reason to have Chris Johnson in your lineups in Week 4. You will be best served keeping Chris Ivory on the bench too.

True, Ivory looked pretty good last week against the Chicago Bears—not to mention he is averaging 5.8 yards per carry to Johnson's 3.5—but the Detroit Lions are coming to town. 

That would be the second-ranked run defense.

Hence it should be no surprise the Lions are giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to date. That includes games against New York's Rashad Jennings—who has been pretty good this season—and last year's Rookie of the Year, Green Bay's Eddie Lacy.

The Lions look to complete the New York sweep this week while keeping that Jets running game grounded. Neither of these running backs is worth starting unless pickings are slim during the bye week.

Johnson Prediction: 11 attempts, 40 yards, 0 TD; two receptions, 20 yards, 0 TD

Ivory Prediction: 13 attempts, 65 yards, 0 TD; one reception, five yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: The Lions defense is too good to risk starting Johnson or Ivory this week. One may get lucky at the goal line, but they are both liable to put up stinkers.

Start: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

For better or worse, Teddy's time has come in Minnesota.

Rookie Teddy Bridgewater was thrown into the fire last week after starter Matt Cassel was injured, performing admirably in relief. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 150 yards and ran for an additional 27, avoiding mistakes and generally looking like the poised and polished rookie many saw coming out of Louisville.

He gets a tasty matchup in his first NFL start this week, a tantalizing opponent in the Atlanta Falcons defense. Atlanta is currently the ninth-worst passing defense, and that includes a game against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Bridgewater isn't going to light things up like New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning—the man everyone knew would have a huge week, of course—but a nice, startable week in the fantasy realm is on the horizon.

Considering all the byes this week, you could do worse than Bridgewater as a plug-and-play option.

Fantasy Prediction: 21-of-31, 225 yards, two TD, one INT; 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing TD

Final Verdict: Bridgewater's first start comes at home against a soft pass defense. If you are in a pickle at quarterback, he is a decent option for Week 4.

Sit: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

His time has come.

The days of Tom Brady being a great fantasy quarterback are long gone. He faltered last season, but turnover and injuries around him seemed to be a big culprit. Despite more stability among his skill players this season, things have only gotten worse.

Brady is currently ranked 28th in fantasy scoring through three games with just 43.2 points. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck scored 36 in Week 3.

The deep ball has been missing for Brady and the Patriots—much ado has been made of his 3-of-21 performance on such passes, as Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier ruminated—and that is a huge reason why Brady's fantasy scores are so low:

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Building a deep passing attack out of [Julian] Edelman, [Shane] Vereen, [Brandon] LaFell and Kenbrell Thompkins will inevitably result in overthrows and passes into tight windows. And while it is impolite to mention it, Brady lost his top fastball years ago. Most of his truly deep attempts—not 17-yarders to Gronk [Rob Gronkowski], but attempts to launch the ball—wobble or tail away from receivers who are not fast or gifted enough to retrieve them.

The Patriots did not have much of a deep-passing game in 2013, either. But they had a running game and pass protection. Now, they are playing a shell game of screen passes, six-linemen packages and wily Brady reads.

"

Granted, we are only three weeks into the 2014 season, and Brady could well turn things around. For now, however, he is a shell of himself and a danger to your fantasy lineups.

Brady is on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Given all his troubles to date, it seems there are safer options, even during the bye week.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-38, 250 yards, two TD, one INT; 0 rushing yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Brady seems to be in fantasy free fall. Avoid him most of the time until he pulls up, if he can.

Start: Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

The first few weeks haven't been kind to Keenan Allen or his fantasy owners, who likely took him early in drafts this past summer.

Allen currently ranks 68th in standard fantasy scoring, exactly one spot ahead of similarly disappointing Larry Fitzgerald out of Arizona. What gives?

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has simply not targeted Allen much in the first three weeks, relatively speaking. He has just 17 targets through three games—five fewer than team leader Eddie Royal, of all people—and hasn't done much with them to boot. 

His schedule hasn't helped, though—Allen has played two of three games on the road. Arizona, Seattle and Buffalo all have pretty good secondaries as well, headlined by such names as Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman and Stephon Gilmore, though that last one isn't quite the same as those other two.

Who comes to town this week? The Jacksonville Jaguars and the league's worst pass defense, that's who. 

By Odin's beard, Allen is going to bust out this week. If he doesn't, then it might be time to panic.

Fantasy Prediction: seven receptions, 125 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Allen's 2014 breakout is coming this weekend against the Jaguars' porous pass defense.

Flex Only: Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a mess, and receiver Vincent Jackson has been part of the problem.

Looking disinterested at times, Jackson has been all but invisible in the fantasy realm to date. A garbage-time touchdown wasn't even enough to get him into the top 40 in fantasy scoring.

With a few extra days to prepare and, hopefully, a fire lit underneath the team as a whole after that Week 3 shellacking, the Buccaneers will surely come out and play better against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Right? Sure.

That may well happen, but it's a long way up that crevasse after rock bottom. That is, if the Buccaneers even reached the bottom last week.

Jackson is still the No. 1 receiver on his team, however, and that has some value. If the Buccaneers find themselves down big again, Jackson will have value in garbage time. If they hang around or even somehow beat the Steelers, Jackson should be a reason.

Just don't count on a huge game from the big receiver.

Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Jackson is by no means a safe option, but he will get targets and be fantasy-relevant to some degree.

Start: Owen Daniels, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The agony of injury struck Dennis Pitta yet again last week as the big tight end dislocated his hip for the second consecutive year.

Owen Daniels steps into a starting role with Pitta out for the year, and there is reason for fantasy optimism for the former Houston Texan. His offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, is his former head coach, after all.

The veteran did score a pair of touchdowns in Week 2, though they were both goal-line plays where he was the forgotten second tight end.

Going forward, Daniels should get Pitta's targets, and they should be plentiful—the injured tight end had been targeted 22 times in the first three weeks before the injury struck. Daniels may not get all of those, but six or seven per game is a good bet.

Fantasy Prediction: five receptions, 40 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: With Pitta out, Daniels will garner enough targets to be fantasy-relevant as long as he is healthy.

Sit: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Scott Kane/Associated Press

Has Father Time finally felled Jason Witten? 

The 32-year-old tight end has looked worse for the wear for a little while now, a lumbering mass of declining football player. He has benefited from a deluge of targets from Tony Romo over the years, but so far he hasn't had the eye of his quarterback as much.

His fantasy owners won't be encouraged by the fact he is facing the New Orleans Saints, who are giving up just 5.1 standard points per game to opposing tight ends.

With youngsters on the rise—guys like Larry Donnell, whose Week 4 ship has sadly sailed, and Travis Kelce—and a tough matchup, you might be better suited looking elsewhere for points at tight end this week.

Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Witten has faltered this season, and the Saints aren't a good matchup.

Start: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

As of a week ago, the outlook was grim for Doug Martin's fantasy owners.

The Tampa Bay running back was iffy with an injury, and Steve Gallo of USA Today reported that he was more than just injured—he was benched. Lovie Smith angrily denounced that report, but Martin wasn't active for a second consecutive week while Bobby Rainey was given another chance to shine.

Rainey fumbled that chance away, however, and Martin is on the verge of a return. Whether it will be triumphant will depend on the overall quality of the Buccaneers offense, which has looked pitiful thus far this season.

Martin may yet have to contend with Rainey cutting into his playing time, but the latter may have played his way into Smith's doghouse with a pair of lost fumbles last week. It wasn't enough to get him booted from the game, but the Buccaneers didn't have much to gain by benching him either.

With that in mind, consider inserting Martin into your bye-depleted lineups this week. It's a good bet he will be the lead back again with Rainey's fumbling issues. Even if he's not, Martin will still see a good amount of work against a Pittsburgh Steelers run defense that has been bad at times this season.

Fantasy Prediction: 19 attempts, 85 yards, one TD; four receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Rainey's fumbling issues should reopen the door for Martin to put up a nice fantasy score this week.

Flex Only: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Ben Margot/Associated Press

This might be an easy call come Sunday morning if Arian Foster is declared out—he is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, per CSN Houston's Dave Zangaro—but you should have an alternative ready to roll regardless.

Now, that may be difficult given so many teams are on a bye, but Foster is aiming to disappoint fantasy owners everywhere if he does play and they entrust him with a spot in their lineups.

Foster had a great start to the season, but his first two weeks were largely volume dependent. His Week 2 outburst—138 rushing yards and a touchdown—was a function of opportunity. He ran the ball 28 times after having done so 27 times the week before—likely the biggest factor in his current injury situation.

The Texans are unlikely to make that mistake again, especially with Alfred Blue playing well. That means fewer touches for the inefficient Foster. Tread lightly, as his hamstring could go any time.

Fantasy Prediction: 16 attempts, 70 yards, 0 TD; two receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD

Final Verdict: Foster's hamstring will be too problematic to risk starting him this week. Even if he is a full go come Sunday morning, his workload should be impacted by Blue, not to mention his team should try to avoid getting him injured again.

All fantasy statistics and rankings courtesy of FFToday.com.

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