College Football Picks Week 5: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams
Every Top 25 team has certain games circled on the calendar every season, but all it takes is one slip to put any College Football Playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. That means no opponent can be overlooked.
That is an important theme as we head into Week 5 of the college football season.
Thursday night’s showdown between UCLA and Arizona State was the only matchup between ranked teams on this week’s slate, but the underdogs will surely be looking for some timely upsets. With that in mind, here is a look at the odds and spread predictions for every Top 25 team.
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*Note: The Associated Press Top 25 Poll was used, the broadcast information is courtesy of ESPN.com and the point spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark as of Thursday afternoon.
| Cincinnati | No. 22 Ohio State | BTN | OSU -16 | Ohio State |
| No. 1 Florida State | North Carolina State | ABC/ESPN 2 | FSU -18.5 | Florida State |
| Louisiana Tech | No. 5 Auburn | SEC Network/Watch ESPN | AUB -32 | Auburn |
| Arkansas | No. 6 Texas A&M | CBS | A&M -9 | Texas A&M |
| No. 7 Baylor | Iowa State | Fox | BAY -21 | Baylor |
| No. 8 Notre Dame | Syracuse | ABC | ND -9.5 | Notre Dame |
| Wyoming | No. 9 Michigan State | ESPN 2/Watch ESPN | MSU -28 | Michigan State |
| Memphis | No. 10 Ole Miss | ESPN 3 | MISS -21 | Ole Miss |
| Tennessee | No. 12 Georgia | ESPN/Watch ESPN | GEO -17 | Georgia |
| Missouri | No. 13 South Carolina | ESPN/Watch ESPN | SC -6 | South Carolina |
| No. 16 Stanford | Washington | Fox | STA -7.5 | Washington |
| New Mexico State | No. 17 LSU | SEC Network/Watch ESPN | LSU -42.5 | New Mexico State |
| Oregon State | No. 18 USC | ESPN/Watch ESPN | USC -9 | USC |
| South Florida | No. 19 Wisconsin | ESPN U/Watch ESPN | WIS -34.5 | Wisconsin |
| Illinois | No. 21 Nebraska | BTN | NEB -20.5 | Nebraska |
| UTEP | No. 25 Kansas State | Check local listing | KSU -26 | Kansas State |
Game to Watch: No. 1 Florida State at North Carolina State
The No. 1 team in the country and defending national champion is going on the road to face an undefeated team. On paper, this is certainly a noteworthy contest, and it is easy to look at the 4-0 record next to North Carolina State’s name and see this as a potential upset.
However, the difference in strength of schedule between Florida State and the Wolfpack describes a telling story. College GameDay pointed out that the Seminoles have been tested in the early going:
On the other hand, the Wolfpack have played Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida and Presbyterian, which is not exactly murderer’s row.
North Carolina State didn’t inspire much confidence, either, when it trailed the majority of the game against Georgia Southern before eventually winning by a single point, 24-23. The defense also struggled against Old Dominion and allowed 34 points to a team that only managed 17 against Eastern Michigan.
There is something to be said about the fact that the Seminoles are coming off of an emotional overtime victory against Clemson in what may be their most difficult test of the regular season.
Defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston did not play in that contest, but the defense (largely due to Clemson miscues) did just enough to keep Florida State in the game and eventually win at the end. The Seminoles actually trailed for the first time in 12 regular-season contests.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher commented on the result, via ESPN.com: "The mental resolve of this football team, that's why I love them. They understand how to rally together, they understand how to pull together, and they understand how much they care for each other. I think they mentally got themselves back together."
That mental resolve will be tested as Florida State tries to get up for another game seven days after its emotional roller coaster of a victory.
The key for North Carolina State will be exploiting what appears to be a vulnerable Seminoles offensive line. In fact, Florida State only managed 13 yards on 27 carries against the Tigers and allowed five sacks.
The presence of Winston alone will cut down on the sack totals thanks to his ability to elude pressure, but the offensive line is certainly a concern for now.
This wouldn’t be the first time the Wolfpack sprung a surprise on the Seminoles, either. North Carolina State has won five of its last seven home games against a ranked Florida State squad, including the 17-16 stunner in 2012 over the No. 2 Seminoles.
If the North Carolina State defense can rattle Winston with pressure or at least shut down the running game, it would open up the opportunity for the offense to do some work. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett leads the ACC with a 166.7 passer rating with 10 touchdowns and one interception, which is a large reason why the Wolfpack are averaging 502 yards of offense a game.
Throw in Shadrach Thornton, who ran for 173 yards and two scores in last year’s game against Florida State, and the Wolfpack have the pieces to challenge the Seminoles defense.
While Brissett and Thornton may keep it close for the first half, the North Carolina State defense just isn’t built to take advantage of Florida State’s offensive line. We are talking about a unit that allowed more than 500 total yards of offense against Old Dominion.
Winston will pick apart the secondary and make plays with his feet, essentially ending this one by the fourth quarter. The Heisman winner led his team to 35 first-quarter points alone against the Wolfpack last year.
It won’t be quite as ugly this time around, but Winston and the Seminoles will win by a comfortable margin.
Prediction: Florida State 41, North Carolina State 20
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