North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Clemson Tigers: Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The North Carolina Tar Heels and Clemson Tigers both suffered tough losses last week, but each for different reasons as they meet in a key ACC matchup on Saturday.

The Tar Heels are coming off their first setback of the season, and it was a big one as they lost badly on the road to the East Carolina Pirates, 70-41.

North Carolina also fell to 0-3 against the spread while the Tigers have covered their past two but dropped a 23-17 decision on the road to the Florida State Seminoles in overtime last week.

Point Spread: The Tigers opened as 10-point favorites at Memorial Stadium, but the spread was bet to 14.5 points by Thursday.

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: Tigers 44.0, Tar Heels 31.7

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels Can Cover the Spread

The Tar Heels had high expectations for their play in the ACC this season, and those remain as they finally get a chance to prove themselves in their conference opener.

Even though they have struggled a bit in three nonconference games, the slate is wiped clean for league play and they can start competing for the ACC crown.

North Carolina is 5-1 against the spread in its last six conference games, with the only loss during that stretch coming against the Duke Blue Devils, 27-25, in its 2013 finale as a five-point home favorite.

The Tar Heels know what is at stake here and just need to keep this game within a couple of scores to cover the spread.

Why the Clemson Tigers Can Cover the Spread

Clemson has not faced North Carolina since 2011 but routed the Tar Heels 59-38 in that last meeting as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Tigers got off to an 8-0 start that year but have already dropped two games this season—none bigger than last week’s loss to Florida State.

Clemson dominated most of the game against the Seminoles but missed two field goals and turned the ball over late to miss out on a potential game-winning opportunity in the final minutes of regulation.

Still, true freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson played well under pressure and kept his team in the game until the end.

Watson is a future star and will have a short memory to help the Tigers bounce back in this spot. They have covered the spread in their last three games as home favorites.

Smart Pick

Who will have the worse hangover from last week’s performance?

That’s highly debatable, but Clemson is a fairly young team and should be able to rebound here. North Carolina was just on the road and got clobbered, so things will not get any easier in Death Valley.

The Tigers are the more talented team and will be a lot more confident playing at home. That may have even made the difference last week against Florida State.

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, so look for Clemson to take out frustrations from the loss to the Seminoles on the Tar Heels in an easy victory.

Trends:

• North Carolina is 4-11 straight up in its last 15 games on the road.
• Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last five games when playing at home against North Carolina.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates.