Week 4 NFL Picks: Predictions for Teams in Must-Win Situation Against the Spread

There's a saying in sports that every game is a must-win situation. While that's certainly true, especially in the NFL with only 16 games to prove yourself, it is hard to say anyone is out of the playoff mix entering Week 4. 

Jacksonville and Oakland are exceptions because, well, have you seen them play? The other 30 teams in the NFL are still fighting for 12 playoff spots. There are 13 games left to make sure you secure your spot in the second season, though you can only fall so far behind before hope turns to despair. 

Fresh off a terrific and surprising Week 3, it's time to move onto Week 4 with a look at the teams already facing a must-win situation to avoid slipping too far behind in their divisional races and facing the steep uphill climb that they don't need one month into the year. 

Matchup	Pick
New York Giants at Washington (-3.5)	Washington, 27-17
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)	Ravens, 23-20
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (NL)	Bears, 27-20
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)	Bills, 20-17
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9)	Colts, 24-14
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (NL)	Lions, 23-17
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Oakland Raiders	Dolphins, 20-16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)	Steelers, 28-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)	Chargers, 35-17
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings	Falcons, 28-20
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)	Eagles, 28-24
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys	Saints, 30-28
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs	Patriots, 23-20

Teams in Must-Win Spots

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (NL)

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Returning to the scene where they clinched a playoff berth at the end of last year, the Green Bay Packers look like a much different team in 2014. The key pieces are still there with Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, et al., but the results have looked sluggish. 

Through three games, the Packers are 1-2 and have scored 54 points in those three games. Rodgers isn't turning the ball over, but he's completed less than 60 percent of his passes the last two games. The running game has been non-existent with 78.7 yards per game; Lacy has just 113 yards so far. 

The most alarming part about Green Bay's loss at Detroit in Week 3 is the offense didn't try to test a beat-up Lions secondary. The strength of Jim Caldwell's defense is the front four, so Mike McCarthy's play-calling was particularly baffling. 

According to Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, the Packers ran the ball on first down an overwhelming majority of the time in Week 3:

Spinning forward to Week 4, the Bears haven't played their best football despite being 2-1. They have gained a total of 473 yards in wins over San Francisco and New York. An opportunistic defense has catapulted the team, forcing seven turnovers in the last two weeks. 

That won't help them this week because Rodgers doesn't throw interceptions, with just one in 102 attempts this season. Neither team has been good at defending the run, but the Packers have been better at stopping the pass. 

However, Green Bay's secondary hasn't gone up against a receiving corps with the size of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. The key matchup will be Jordy Nelson vs. Kyle Fuller, who has been great in his first three games. 

According to ESPN Stats & Info, Fuller did something in Week 3 that only one other rookie has ever done:

As impressive as Fuller has been through three weeks, there are still holes that can be exploited. He missed a tackle against the Jets that allowed Greg Salas to gain 51 yards. Nelson is one of the best route-runners in football, with a knack for finding the football. 

The Packers know their backs are against the wall. A loss in this spot drops them to 1-3 with two losses in the division and two games behind Chicago. However, until we see their offense get back in sync, it's hard not to like what the Bears have going right now. 

Prediction: Bears 27, Packers 20

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

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While there are so many details that go into setting a betting line, what about San Francisco's performance through three weeks warrants being a 5.5-point favorite over an undefeated Philadelphia team? Is it just because the 49ers are at home?

The two biggest problems with San Francisco is the team's inability to get out of its own way and inexplicable offensive play-calling in the second half of games. The 49ers have given up 17 first downs by penalties, four more than anyone else in the NFL. 

Anquan Boldin can claim the officials are out to get the 49ers all he wants, but when he's headbutting Arizona safety Tony Jefferson after making a catch, it's hard to sympathize with him. 

As for the second half, what are Greg Roman and Colin Kaepernick doing? Last week's meltdown against Arizona was a perfect example of how little trust they really have in the passing game. They were driving on the Cardinals, getting in the red zone late in the third quarter. 

Boldin's penalty backed them up from the 6-yard line to the 21. The first-down call was a short pass to Michael Crabtree that gained four yards. On second down, Kaepernick scrambled and lost two yards. 

On third down, with 19 yards to go for a touchdown, Kaepernick goes on a designed run for seven yards that gets negated by a clipping call on Jonathan Martin. The second third-down attempt was another short pass to Crabtree that gained six yards. The field-goal attempt was blocked. 

Another disturbing trend for the 49ers is how little impact their running game has had. A staple of Jim Harbaugh's era has been the team's ability to run the ball, yet they are only averaging 112 yards per game on the ground so far, and they've thrown the ball 13 more times than they've run it. 

Last year, the 49ers attempted an NFL-low 417 passes and third-most rushing attempts with 505. They can't close games, being outscored 52-3 in the second half of their first three matchups. 

As Greg A. Bedard of TheMMQB.com wrote, the snowball effect has killed the 49ers, and they show no signs of being able to stop it:

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In the past two weeks we’ve seen an undisciplined team that easily loses its cool and can’t recover when things go bad. That’s an indication, in my opinion, that the Niners players are no longer drawing their persona from the head coach, and are instead doing things their own way. That’s a bad sign.

"

The Eagles come into this game as a flawed team, but one that has been able to mask its shortcomings with strong second-half rallies and tremendous poise. They don't get rattled when things go bad, whether it's falling behind 17-0 against Jacksonville or a brawl breaking out in the fourth quarter of a tie game with a division rival. 

Nick Foles has had his problems early this season with some poor decisions and bad turnovers yet never seems to be overwhelmed by the moment. Don Banks of Sports Illustrated noted the Eagles rallied against Washington despite losing LeSean McCoy, Jason Peters and Jason Kelce at various points:

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And in their most impressive feat, they won even after seeing Peters—perhaps the league’s best offensive tackle—thrown out of the game after he fought with Baker, who also was ejected. That development meant the Eagles were playing the rest of the game with their last five active offensive linemen, and were fielding a unit missing four starters, considering they were also missing injured guard Evan Mathis and tackle Allen Barbre.

"

These are two teams trending in opposite directions, with the 49ers dominating the first half and Eagles tearing up the second half. Since NFL games are won or lost in the fourth quarter, which quarterback do you trust to make a big play? Which team isn't going to have a stupid penalty that keeps a drive alive?

There's a scenario where the 49ers win this game that wouldn't shock anybody because they aren't getting blown out in these losses. We just have to see a lot more composure and some movement in the second half of games to think it will happen. 

Prediction: Eagles 28, 49ers 24

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

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This is the rare must-win game in Week 4 for both teams. The New Orleans Saints finally got off the schneid with an ugly 20-9 win over Minnesota. It wasn't the performance any of us were expecting in the team's first home game, but a win is a win.

The Dallas Cowboys, somehow, managed to show their best and worst traits against St. Louis. Jason Garrett's team stole victory from the jaws of defeat, coming from 21-0 down to win 34-31. The good news is they are still racking up rushing yards, including DeMarco Murray's third straight 100-yard game. 

However, Dallas' defense still isn't inspiring confidence. Bruce Carter did have a huge 25-yard interception return for a touchdown, but the Cowboys let Austin Davis throw for 327 yards and three touchdowns. 

In other words, expect a wild shootout Sunday night in Dallas. The Saints need to win to prove they can be victorious away from home. The Cowboys need to win to prove they can do more than beat up on the Tennessees and St. Louises of the world. 

One noteworthy trend through three weeks for the Cowboys is their success in the second half. According to ESPN Stats & Info, they are tied for second in second-half point differential:

Tony Romo has been reined in this season to the benefit of the Cowboys. He's thrown just 89 passes through three games compared to 95 rushing attempts for the team. That actually plays into New Orleans' hand, because its strength on defense this season has been against the run. 

Opposing teams have thrown for 835 yards and four touchdowns against the Saints, who have yet to record an interception. 

Dallas' defense has been middle of the pack against the run and pass so far this season, so Drew Brees will have his choice of ways to attack this unit. He's been locked-in all year, completing nearly 71 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Until we see that the Cowboys really have changed for the better, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they come out of September with a 3-1 record. Brees and the Saints will end their road woes this weekend. 

Prediction: Saints 30, Cowboys 28

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