College Football Week 5 Predictions: Picking Top-25 Games Against the Spread
If you could categorize Week 5 of the college football season in one word, that one word would likely be “appetizer.”
By its lonesome it can be filling and delicious, although this course serves as only a precursor of greatness to come. That greatness is typically meat of some kind cooked medium rare, and Week 6—given the array of fascinating matchups on deck—is that fillet.
There will be ample hours to give next week’s slate of games its due. For now, however, the focus is on Week 5. More specifically, the focus at this present moment is handicapping each game featuring teams in the Top 25 of the AP Poll and picking winners using point spreads.
After hovering just a shade over .500 in back-to-back weeks, we finally broke through last Saturday. A solid 10-4 showing has given us the momentum we craved.
Let’s see if we can carry it forward for, oh, another 11 weeks or so.
All spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 24 Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
1 of 11
The Line: Oklahoma State (-13.5)
Oklahoma State, somewhat quietly, has started 2014 off in convincing fashion. Losing quarterback J.W. Walsh to injury was not ideal, although Daxx Garman has looked solid through two games.
Texas Tech just enjoyed a much-needed bye after being bullied by Arkansas. The Red Raiders are in search of their first cover of the season, and over the last nine games, they’ve covered just once.
The Pokes, meanwhile, have covered in eight of their last 11 games and hit the number in 12 of the past 15 at home. Even with questions entering this game, it’s hard to argue with recent history.
The Oklahoma State offense should thrive, which is why we're backing the favorite.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (-13.5)
No. 22 Ohio State vs. Cincinnati
2 of 11
The Line: Ohio State (-14)
The Buckeyes are hoping that a drubbing of Kent State followed by a bye week can heal all wounds. Coming home certainly helps, although Ohio State has covered just twice in its past six games while operating in front of the Horseshoe faithful.
Cincinnati has covered in 10 of its past 15 games overall, and quarterback Gunner Kiel is off to a promising start at 2-0. The main concern, however, is Kiel will hit the road for the first time, albeit only down the road, this week.
The line seems large—perhaps too large—although the aggressive posting is telling. The OSU offense should continue to jell, and the defense will make life for the new Cincinnati QB more uncomfortable than it has been.
The Pick: Ohio State (-14)
No. 18 USC vs. Oregon State
3 of 11
The Line: USC (-11.5)
The last time we saw USC, it was outrushed by more than 400 yards by Boston College. Coming off a physical game against Stanford, the road trip escalated quickly. The Trojans lost as a 17-point favorite before getting a bye last week.
Oregon State enters unbeaten, although its best win was likely at Hawaii and the squad is somewhat unproven. With that said, the Beavers, behind experienced quarterback Sean Mannion, have done quite well outside of Corvallis. On the road, Oregon State has covered five of its last six games.
The Trojans should get back on track with a victory, although the spread simply feels a bit too high. Look for USC to get the win and Oregon State to hang around long enough.
The Pick: Oregon State (+11.5)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 16 Stanford at Washington
4 of 11
The Line: Stanford (-7.5)
We’re not quite sure what Washington is at this point. The Huskies are undefeated, although they have not exactly looked like an undefeated team despite some solid individual performances.
Having just enjoyed a bye week after an ugly loss to USC, Stanford enters a situation is has thrived in of late. The Cardinal has covered four out of its last six games against Washington. More impressively, David Shaw has covered 15 times in the past 19 road games.
This line has continued to climb, opening around four-and-a-half points and moving a full field goal upward. Although some of the value on Stanford might be lost, it’s not stopping the love for the home dog.
The Pick: Stanford (-7.5)
No. 13 South Carolina vs. Missouri
5 of 11
The Line: South Carolina (-5.5)
A fascinating matchup in the SEC East lost some luster last week. Both teams were more than two-touchdown favorites against their opponents, although both struggled mightily. Missouri, however, was unable to secure the win against Indiana, perhaps a product of looking beyond to this game.
Steve Spurrier wasn’t happy about his team’s performance, to put it mildly, although South Carolina clawed back and beat Vanderbilt by two scores. For the season, however, the Gamecocks have covered only once.
Something has to give. Missouri has covered in six of its last seven road games, while South Carolina has covered in four of its past six games at home. Although the Tigers have been favorable to backers over the past year—covering in 14 of 18 games overall—the cracks in the armor feel a bit too pronounced.
In OBC we trust.
The Pick: South Carolina (-5.5)
No. 12 Georgia vs. Tennessee
6 of 11
The Line: Georgia (-17)
The Volunteers came close to pulling off an enormous upset against Georgia at home last season. And you could make the argument that they should have won rather than settling for a cover-friendly 34-31 loss in overtime.
We’re switching venues this year, and thus, tacking on a few more points to the spread. After being bulldozed by Oklahoma in the second half in Week 3, Tennessee enjoyed a weekend off. Georgia played Troy in Week 4, which was more like a practice than an actual game. The Bulldogs cruised to a 66-0 victory, putting it in neutral early on.
Taking the points is incredibly tempting. But Tennessee has only won once in its last 10 road games and covered in two of its past seven away from Knoxville. We’ll likely feel differently next year, just not right now.
The Pick: Georgia (-17)
No. 11 UCLA at No. 15 Arizona State
7 of 11
The Line: UCLA (-4)
You’re probably not all that familiar with the name Mike Bercovici yet. That’ll change one way or another after Thursday. With Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly out, Bercovici will get the call at against UCLA. Helping him in this tall order with be D.J. Foster and Jaelen Strong, two of the conference’s top playmakers.
UCLA should have the services of its starting quarterback, Brett Hundley, following an injury before the team’s bye week. And yet, despite this enormous bit of good news, the Bruins have yet to really click. They’re unbeaten—which is most important—but they're also winless against the spread and have struggled against weaker opponents.
The loss of Kelly cannot simply be glazed over, although neither can UCLA’s turbulent start. With ASU’s offense still ripe with firepower, the points at home are too tempting to pass up.
The Pick: Arizona State (+4)
No. 10 Ole Miss vs. Memphis
8 of 11
The Line: Ole Miss (-19.5)
The team that could impact this game most isn’t Ole Miss or Memphis. It’s actually Alabama, which will head to Mississippi next week in one of the SEC’s early games of the year. If you watched South Carolina and Missouri play in Week 4, you can see the “look ahead” angle that tends to surface in situations such as this.
That seems to be what some of the early action is anticipating. After opening up at 24 points, this line has since moved under 20 and could crash down a bit further by kick. While Ole Miss is clearly the superior team with superior talent, Memphis has improved significantly from a few seasons ago, when it was the laughingstock of college football.
Neither team has lost against the spread this year. Memphis is better than most realize and will push to make this a game longer than Ole Miss would like.
The Pick: Memphis (+19.5)
No. 8 Notre Dame at Syracuse
9 of 11
The Line: Notre Dame (-12)
Let’s start with the location, which will serve as an intriguing variable in this matchup. MetLife Stadium in the lovely Meadowlands will play host to Notre Dame and Syracuse. This means both fanbases should be well represented (although let's give the edge to Notre Dame because it's Notre Dame).
The Irish, coming off a lackluster showing against Purdue, will attempt to bounce back after a bye week. Syracuse, meanwhile, just lost outright to Maryland by two touchdowns after closing as a slight favorite.
So why isn’t this line larger than 12?
The timing of this game is intriguing. Notre Dame will welcome Stanford next week, which will serve as the team’s most critical test to date. And given Syracuse’s surprising Vegas run—having covered in 15 of the past 23 games—perhaps it can take advantage and make this closer than many expect it to be.
The Pick: Syracuse (+12)
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
10 of 11
The Line: Texas A&M (-9)
When this point spread first opened, you could have grabbed Arkansas and nearly two touchdowns. That value quickly disintegrated, and Texas A&M is now just a single-digit favorite over the Hogs.
That wouldn’t have sounded all that strange this past offseason, although much has changed with Kenny Hill’s hot start and the Aggies’ magnificent air attack. Hoping to counter this attack is perhaps the nation’s top running game, and Arkansas has looked like a different team outside of the second half against Auburn in the opener.
Playing in AT&T Stadium—a stadium owned by one of the nation’s biggest Arkansas fans—the Hogs could be live. I’m not sure they get the win, but I do believe this running game does its part to keep this close. If you can find them at double digits, pounce.
The Pick: Arkansas (+9)
Other Top-25 Games
11 of 11
No. 25 Kansas State (-26) vs. UTEP
How do the Wildcats respond to supreme disappointment? I’m not sure it matters in this matchup. UTEP is 3-0 against the spread and playing surprisingly good football. The points are appealing.
The Pick: UTEP (+26)
No. 21 Nebraska (-20) vs. Illinois
Despite the glaring mismatch, this is an emotional sandwich game for the Cornhuskers. After taking on Miami last week, Nebraska gets Michigan State in Week 6. Illinois takes advantage, keeping this close enough.
The Pick: Illinois (+20)
No. 19 Wisconsin (-33) vs. USF
This line is massive, and yet, I have no interest in taking the points in any capacity given what USF has shown and the significance of home field. It’s a lot to lay, but lay it regardless.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-33)
No. 17 LSU (-43.5) vs. New Mexico State
Coming off an emotional loss, LSU should be angry. But with a road trip to Auburn on deck—and offensive issues aplenty—it’s hard to lay this many points, even against New Mexico State.
The Pick: New Mexico State (+43.5)
No. 9 Michigan State (-31) vs. Wyoming
The Spartans look deadly, but Wyoming is a spirited team with one of the worst schedules imaginable. Michigan State is likely pondering Nebraska next week, and the Cowboys should sneak in a cover accordingly.
The Pick: Wyoming (+31)
No. 7 Baylor (-21) at Iowa State
Iowa State’s win at Iowa gives you cause for pause, although Baylor off of a bye week really doesn’t sound like something you want to bet against.
The Pick: Baylor (-21)
No. 5 Auburn (-33.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
I know Auburn will likely be lacking motivation here with big games ahead, but I'm not sure it will matter. Louisiana Tech just lost to Northwestern State and Gus Malzahn needs to get his offense right.
The Pick: Auburn (-33.5)
No. 1 Florida State (-19) at NC State
The line movement here is fascinating. Florida State, having opened well north of a three-touchdown favorite, is now down to under 20 points. The move is concerning, but not enough to take the underdog with Jameis Winston making his return.
The Pick: Florida State (-19)
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