MLB Teams with Bad 2014 Records That Look Primed for a 2015 Breakout
As playoff-bound MLB clubs gear up for postseason play, baseball's less successful squads are already turning their attention to the 2015 season.
Some teams will continue to toil away in obscurity, as a lack of funds, talent and/or timing will hamper their chances once again. Yet baseball has proved to be topsy-turvy, with franchises frequently shifting from mediocre to mesmerizing and vice versa.
The Los Angeles Angels won 78 games last season, but they're now on the verge of entering October with MLB's best record. A year after going 76-86, the San Francisco Giants will also hunt for another title, even though they'll have to survive the winner-take-all wild-card clash.
A dull 2014 finish doesn't forebode another disappointing slate next season. For some unfortunate teams, injuries interfered with a possible playoff ticket. Others are better than the win-loss ledger suggests, and some promising youth has a few squads poised to erase years of misery.
These teams all finished with a losing record—teams above .500 were not considered for this list—but that can change once fall and winter come and go to make way for another clean tilt.
Chicago Cubs (70-88)
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They're a few steps away from fulfilling Back to the Future's foretelling, but the Chicago Cubs are on the doorstep to their first winning season since 2009.
Their season doesn't look great on paper. They're last in the National League Central with a minus-99 run differential, the NL's second-lowest mark. Yet the Cubs have assembled the blueprint to a brighter future during an encouraging campaign.
Following a despondent 2013, Anthony Rizzo has bounced back with an .895 OPS and 31 homers. A year removed from hitting .245/.284/.347, Starlin Castro rebounded with a .292/.339/.438 slash line. In a miniature sample size, Jorge Soler has enamored in the outfield with a .658 slugging percentage through 20 games.
A full year of Soler will boost an offense that rates 14th in slugging percentage but 26th in runs scored. Yet he's not even the budding squad's most promising young slugger. Kris Bryant proved ready for the big time months ago, so it' would be a complete head-scratcher if MLB.com's No. 3 prospect doesn't make the Opening Day lineup.
Split between Double-A and Triple-A, the 22-year-old third baseman hit .325/.438/.661 with 43 homers and 110 RBI. If given the chance, Bryant would become 2015's immediate Rookie of the Year front-runner.
In order to make a major dent in the NL Central, they'll have to replace Jeff Samardzija in the rotation. Upon breaking out with a 2.65 ERA and 9.44 K/9 ratio, Jake Arrieta is the group's new building block. Kyle Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada are both pitching over their peripherals, but they've emerged as solid back-end starters.
Now the current product isn't enough to make a substantial leap, but the Cubs are primed to make a splash during the offseason. Before settling their arbitration cases, they're committed to just $31 million, per Cot's Baseball Contracts. Their payroll towered as high as $144 million during 2010. When they last made the playoffs in 2008, they paid $118 million in salary.
If anyone is an ace away from contention, it's the Cubs. Theo Epstein should pursue Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields this winter, with his Boston Red Sox connection to Lester making the lefty a logical acquisition.
Houston Astros (69-89)
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After averaging 54 victories over the past three seasons, the Houston Astros can consider their 69-win campaign a breakout with four more chances to expand the count. Even if they increase their postseason drought to 10 years, the Astros will take another monumental step in their rebuilding plan.
Jose Altuve and Chris Carter lifted them from the cellar, and a full season from George Springer will make the offense all the more capable in 2015. The rookie hit 20 homers in just 78 games, notching an .804 OPS before a quad injury ended his promising debut.
Brandishing a .325/.416/.510 slash line in Single-A, 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa could hasten his path to the majors to next summer. The 2012 No. 1 pick had his timeline halted with a fractured fibula, but he should accelerate the process upon his return.
After ranking last in team ERA last year, the Astros currently sport a 3.89 FIP due to breakout performances from Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. Keuchel will conclude his season with a 2.92 ERA through 200 innings on the dot, and McHugh has emerged from afterthought to ace with a 2.73 ERA and 157 punchouts in 154.2 frames.
Receiving bullpen work late in the season, top prospect Mike Foltynewicz can join those young hurlers and veteran Scott Feldman in a no-longer decrepit unit. Mark Appel could rise to the majors too after overcoming a 9.74 ERA to still somehow receive a promotion to Double-A. There he has been a blue-chip prospect with his 2.99 FIP.
Sports Illustrated already awarded them the 2017 championship, but the Astros must first focus on procuring a winning record, a feasible goal for 2015.
New York Mets (76-81)
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If all goes according to plan, the New York Mets will trot out a filthy starting rotation next year.
After slaying the league with a 2.27 ERA, 6.16 K/BB ratio and MLB-best 2.00 FIP in a breakout 2013, Matt Harvey missed all of this season recuperating from Tommy John surgery. In an interview with WFAN radio hosts Boomer and Carton, via the New York Daily News' Kristie Ackert, he already declared victory for the Mets on Opening Day.
“I’m looking ahead to April 6 and counting (the) Washington Nationals as a ‘W,’" Harvey said. "I’m looking forward to it, and whatever trades or whatever they make this offseason, I think as players we have to do what we can and prepare to the best of our abilities so we’re ready for next year.”
Stephen Strasburg may have some dissenting opinions on the matter, but getting the ace back undoubtedly jolts New York's deep rotation. Zack Wheeler has notched 180 strikeouts in 180.1 innings. If he slashes his 76 walks, he'll progress from solid to elite.
Wheeler may not be ready to become the 1A, but another less expected young ace has blossomed in Jacob deGrom, whose 2.63 ERA is better than Harvey could concoct during his rookie campaign. Since July 1, the 26-year-old has registered a 2.00 ERA and 99 strikeouts through 85.2 innings. If he keeps that up, he'll form baseball's deadliest one-two punch with Harvey.
Oh yeah, they also have Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and Bartolo Colon to round out the staff, with top prospect Noah Syndergaard waiting his turn. One of those veterans could fetch Sandy Alderson a position player to improve an offense in need of help.
New York ranks 20th in runs scored and 22nd in on-base percentage. With free-agent signing Curtis Granderson flopping in his first of a four-year deal, the Mets must find another corner outfielder to provide the power they hoped Granderson would deliver.
There are reasons for optimism. Following an alarming start, catcher Travis d'Arnaud is hitting .265/.313/.474 during the second half. Lucas Duda has offered much-needed pop at first base with a team-high 28 homers and an .826 OPS. Although not much of a hitter, Juan Lagares has patrolled center field with aplomb, contributing 26 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), MLB's third-best mark among outfielders.
The Mets can make the playoffs for the first time since 2006, but they'll need a healthy David Wright leading the way. He posted career worsts in home runs (eight), on-base percentage (.324) and slugging percentage (.374) while playing through a shoulder injury.
If he returns to the MVP-caliber third baseman of years past, the Amazins' can live up to that nickname for the first time in a while.
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Tampa Bay Rays (76-81)
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A preseason World Series favorite, the Tampa Bay Rays must win their final five games to avoid their first losing season since ditching the "Devil" from their moniker.
Following a rough start, the Rays caught fire in July, going 17-6. Since the beginning of that month, they're 39-32, yet that sizzling month was not enough to keep ace David Price in Tampa Bay.
When the Rays dealt Price for Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin on July 31, the league-wide reaction was "well, that's a wildly underwhelming return, but these are the Rays, so it could work out." Sure enough, Franklin has six hits in six September games, while Smyly posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.76 WHIP since the trade.
Just like that, the Rays still have a loaded rotation of young aces that will flourish without Price. A 1.49 ERA since the All-Star break decreased Alex Cobb's season mark to 2.75. Chris Archer has fared well enough with a 3.42 ERA and 8.04 K/9 rate, but he can take the leap to ace territory by lowering his 3.37 walk rate next season.
Perhaps the biggest ace up their sleeve, rookie Jake Odorizzi has recorded 171 strikeouts through 165 innings. As a result, his 3.66 FIP rates better than his 3.98 ERA. The 24-year-old can become just as vital of an acquisition from the Shields trade as Wil Myers.
Speaking of Myers, the 2013 Rookie of the Year went from slugging .478 last year to .317 this season. If he and Evan Longoria can shake off down years, the Rays will resurface in the playoff shuffle. Myers is still 23 and recuperating from an injury-riddled season, and Longoria simply needs his .283 BABIP to rise to his .301 career clip.
They also harness two relief aces in Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger, who have assembled a combined 191 strikeouts through 135 innings.
During a down season, Tampa Bay still boasts a plus-five run differential despite its sub-.500 record. One more bat can boost the Rays back up the league hierarchy next year.
Texas Rangers (64-93)
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Turns out your season won't go well when the entire team gets hurt.
Before scoffing at the "entire team" hyperbole, consider how much injuries decimated the Texans Rangers, who won at least 90 games in each of the past four seasons. They currently have 13 guys parked on the disabled list, and that's not including the previously hurt active players.
Colby Lewis is Texas' only pitcher who has logged more than 150 innings this season. When a 35-year-old who missed all of 2013 due to hip surgery is the only healthy arm, there's trouble. More so when he procures a 1.52 WHIP.
Prince Fielder, acquired for Ian Kinsler during the offseason, lasted 42 subpar games before a neck injury ended his season. Shin Soo-Choo notched a .374 slugging percentage before undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle. An elbow injury cut Yu Darvish's Cy Young campaign short.
Everything that could go wrong went direly wrong. Even if the Rangers don't vault back up to World Series contenders, there's nowhere to go but back up next season.
Fielder and Choo both declined before landing on the disabled list, but neither likely played near 100 percent. Texas fans should rightfully panic over Fielder and Choo bloating the team's payroll through 2019, but they're at least good enough to save them from holding the American League's worst record again.
Even if Fielder can't hit 40 homers and Choo doesn't record a .400 on-base percentage, they'll upgrade a once-potent offense that currently ranks 18th in team OPS.
Next season could also mark the MLB debut of Joey Gallo, who has crushed 42 homers in the minors this year. He's raw and strikeout-prone, but the 20-year-old lefty can rake.
The pitching will also enjoy a revival with some crucial returns. After missing the first five months, Derek Holland looks better than ever, allowing five runs through as many starts. He'll anchor a revamped rotation along with Darvish and hopefully Martin Perez, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May, before the season winds down.
After dealing with an unconscionable array of injuries, the Rangers can easily enhance their win total by 20, which still is not necessarily enough to earn a playoff nod.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy on FanGraphs.
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