Pac-12 Football: Predicting Bowl Appearances for Pac-12 Teams
The Pac-12 Conference hasn't even fully entered conference play, but the postseason picture is much clearer than when college football began at the beginning of the month.
Which teams remain in the championship hunt? Will any surprise contenders emerge from either division? Both Cal and Utah look much improved from dreadful 2013 campaigns, while a team boasting arguably the most impressive win in the country—Oregon—was nearly knocked off by a Washington State squad that has otherwise looked pitiful.
Nobody has looked overwhelmingly dominant throughout the first four weeks, and yet, aside from maybe Colorado and Washington State, no team looks like the clear doormat or even belongs outside of the conference championship discussion.
Let's take a look at where things stand in relation to the bowls that teams will be invited to at the end of the year, with the full understanding that things could drastically change over the next few weeks as teams begin squaring off head-to-head.
9. Oregon State Beavers
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Bowl Prediction: Heart of Dallas Bowl
One of the positives out of Oregon State in the early going of the college football season has been a defense allowing only 17 points per game. The negative is that Hawaii, Portland State and San Diego State aren't exactly known for having powerhouse offenses, at least not in 2014.
Even more troubling is the fact that the offense hasn't scored 40 points and was held under 30 against both Portland State and San Diego State. Quarterback Sean Mannion and company are supposed to be dazzling us each week, and instead, points have been harder to come by than you'd expect given the opposition.
Conference play is a different beast, and sometimes that brings out the best in teams; that may very well end up being the case with Oregon State. But if these are the same Beavers that we'll continue to see, seven wins seems optimistic.
8. Utah Utes
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Bowl Prediction: Cactus Bowl
There's always one or two teams that may look completely out of order in these kinds of pieces, and Utah could certainly make a strong case for being one of the top five teams in conference. You know what? From where we sit today, the Utes may very well be.
But Kyle Whittingham's program won't finish that way, not with the murderer's row coming up following a visit from Washington State on Saturday. After that, the schedule goes at UCLA, at Oregon State, versus USC, at Arizona State, versus Oregon, at Stanford and then home against Arizona. All seven of those games will be extremely tough.
If Utah wins two of them, along with the season finale at Colorado and this week's matchup with the Cougars, it'll put it at seven wins, which will probably be good enough for eighth in the conference. Maybe Travis Wilson and the offense are for real, but the Utes have to prove it first, and a road win over Michigan, while nice, isn't strong enough evidence.
7. Washington Huskies
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Bowl Prediction: Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Washington has been about as mercurial a team as you'll find in college football through the first four weeks of the season. First, you have the Huskies that struggled mightily against both Hawaii and Eastern Washington. Then, you have the Cyler Miles-led squad that dominated Illinois.
Most recently, it was Miles and company failing to show up for the first half against Georgia State and entering the locker room down 14-0. Whatever head coach Chris Petersen said at halftime must have worked, as the Huskies flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball and pitched a 45-0 shutout after the break, but it's been too much of a roller coaster so far to believe they can do real damage in the conference.
A visit from Stanford this weekend will make that clear, as will later trips to Oregon and Arizona. Petersen is going to get this thing running, but it won't be fully up to speed for a year or two.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
6. Arizona State Sun Devils
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Bowl Prediction: Hyundai Sun Bowl
Arizona State-UCLA on Thursday sure is a juicy matchup, isn't it? The Sun Devils have blasted apart all comers thus far, but an injury to quarterback Taylor Kelly could cause problems while the star signal-caller takes some time to get healthy.
Then there's the defense, which allowed Colorado to pile up 545 yards of total offense. What's funny is that UCLA's lackluster unit could be the perfect medicine for the Sun Devils' young defense, but if the Brett Hundley of late 2013 shows up firing on all cylinders, it's likely the last time you'll hear about Arizona State being a contender in the south.
As the season wears on, the defense won't hold up, and the offense can't bail the team out every game. Maybe players like linebacker D.J. Calhoun will grow up in a hurry and become who we expect them to be down the road, but it's unlikely to happen in 2014.
5. Arizona Wildcats
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Bowl Prediction: San Francisco Bowl
Arizona might not be the fifth-best team in the Pac-12 at present, but that's where it'll end up based on what we've seen from the Wildcats thus far. Rich Rodriguez's team has managed to scrape by UTSA and Nevada, and it took a Hail Mary to send Cal packing with an "L" on the record.
But quarterback Anu Solomon is the real deal, and when this offense is rolling, it's a thing of beauty and virtually unstoppable. Nick Wilson is an impressive answer to the question of who would replace Ka'Deem Carey at running back, and the unit as a whole is only going to improve.
With questions about Arizona State's defense, not to mention the health of Taylor Kelly, the Wildcats will have the slight edge when it comes to bowl placement, and they'll be heading to the Bay Area for their postseason game.
4. Stanford Cardinal
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Bowl Prediction: National University Holiday Bowl
Stanford has beat up on two awful teams and lost to USC so far in 2014. Anyone can look great against UC Davis or Army, but the Cardinal of old would have found a way to beat the Trojans. The offense, while perhaps more talented than it's been since the Andrew Luck days, has struggled.
But even if you believe the Cardinal to be more talented than USC despite the loss, you have to factor in the schedule, which sees them playing at Washington, Oregon and UCLA. With one league loss already on the record, two more seems fairly likely to happen.
Three losses in the conference not only won't be good enough to reach the Pac-12 title game, it may barely be good enough for a fourth-place finish.
3. USC Trojans
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Bowl Prediction: Valero Alamo Bowl
In order to see USC going to the Alamo Bowl, you have to assume the Trojans will fix their run defense, otherwise teams throughout conference play will use it against them. The difference between most Pac-12 squads and Boston College, however, is the ability to also throw the ball down the field, presenting a variety of looks for the defense to defend against.
As you can clearly see "USC" in the headline of the slide, we believe the Trojans will get their act together on that side of the ball, barring a slew of injuries. Quarterback Cody Kessler and the offense are playing well, and Javorius Allen looks like the top running back in the conference.
USC also has the advantage of holding a victory over Stanford, but the Trojans must still travel to UCLA at the end of the season. They'll drop a third game somewhere along the way and travel east to San Antonio for their bowl game.
2. UCLA Bruins
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Bowl Prediction: Fiesta Bowl
This prediction will either look really stupid or really smart after UCLA emerges from its Thursday night test at Arizona State. Of course, Bruin detractors will use Taylor Kelly's absence as an excuse even if Jim Mora's team is victorious, but this is the biggest test of the season thus far for both teams even with the loss of the stud signal-caller.
That same group will also point to UCLA's strength—the defense, specifically the front seven—as being a tad overrated after allowing 35 points at home to Memphis. But the Bruins may have captured something in the close win over Texas, and that something looks like a renewed focus and energy heading into the meat of the schedule.
Brett Hundley will be returning from injury with something to prove, and when the defense plays to its capability, it's one of the premier units in the nation. Look for that to finally happen on Thursday evening, and as the offense starts to follow suit, UCLA will morph into the elite team we've been waiting to get a glimpse of.
1. Oregon Ducks
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Bowl Prediction: Rose Bowl/Playoff Semifinal
Despite an extremely close call on the road at Washington State, the Oregon Ducks are still projected to be one of the four teams playing in the inaugural College Football Playoff. Two issues that could prevent that from happening? A banged-up offensive line and a secondary that looks porous, to say the least.
Let's start with the offensive line, which should have some time to get healthy during the bye week and, if nothing else, become more cohesive as a unit knowing what it needs to work on. If you were told Washington State would score 31 points on Saturday before the game, it wouldn't shock you. The Ducks still held the Cougars to just 10 second-half points as well.
There's no doubt that side of the ball needs work, but it's not as doom and gloom as some might suspect. And Oregon still has Marcus Mariota, who has all but solidified himself as the best quarterback in the country. He's, er, pretty good.
Bowl order via ESPN.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
