MLB Free Agents 2014-15: Forecasting the Best Values on the Market

If you're looking for the best of the best in baseball's upcoming free-agent class...you've come to the wrong place. You won't find names like Jon Lester, Pablo Sandoval, Max Scherzer or James Shields on the pages that follow.

That's not to say that those players aren't valuable commodities—you'd have to be insane to think that they weren't. But when it comes to the contracts that they are going to receive, in terms of both dollars and in length, well, these aren't the droids you're looking for.

Instead, our focus will be on the role players, the rotation fillers and middle relievers, the veterans whose better days are behind them and some youngsters who never quite lived up to the hype. They're all quality players worthy of a spot on a major league roster, but none are going to command much in the way of dollars or years on the open market.

Who are we talking about, exactly? Let's take a look.

*For our purposes, we are operating under the assumption that any player who has an option on his contract for 2015—any kind of option—will have it picked up and, thus, not officially become a free agent.

UTIL Emilio Bonifacio

2014 Stats: .269/.311/.352, 23 XBH (2 HR), 21 RBI, 23 BB, 71 K, 24-for-32 SB

2014 Salary: $2.5 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 29

Emilio Bonifacio has no power to speak of, doesn't draw walks and, while capable of getting hot for spurts, as he did at the beginning of the season when he set a new modern-day record with nine hits in Chicago's first two games, he's not a player that a team is going to rely on to produce at the plate.

The value lies in his base-stealing ability—he's been successful on nearly 80 percent of his stolen-base attempts since 2009—and that he's one of the most versatile players in the game.

He's not an automatic out at the plate by any means, however, and that he can provide a team with a quality defender at no fewer than five positions—second base, third base and all three outfield spots—is invaluable.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $4.5 million

1B/OF Michael Cuddyer

2014 Stats: .333/.378/.602, 25 XBH (10 HR), 30 RBI, 13 BB, 27 K, 3-for-3 SB

2014 Salary: $10.5 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 36

It's not often that you'll ever find a player only a year removed from winning a batting crown on a list of best available values, but that's the situation that Michael Cuddyer finds himself in.

There's no question that his numbers over the past three years have been heavily inflated by playing at Coors Field half the time, but it's not as if he's been a complete waste when the Rockies have been out of town:

Split	BA	XBH (HR)	RBI
Home	.329	73 (25)	102
Away	.285	53 (20)	59

But Cuddyer is on the wrong side of 35 and has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, including 109 games this season due to thigh injuries and a fractured shoulder.

With such a shaky recent injury history, Colorado would be insane to extend him a qualifying offer, which is expected to be around $15 million, because Cuddyer would probably accept it. His inability to stay on the field also makes another team swooping in with a lucrative, multiyear deal—something like the three-year, $31.5 million pact he signed with Colorado before the 2012 season—highly unlikely.

That said, a healthy Cuddyer is still productive at the plate and a capable defender at first base or in a corner outfield spot, making him a fit for a number of teams this winter.

Forecasted Contract: Two years, $16 million

Of Chris Denorfia

2014 Stats: .231/.286/.312, 18 XBH (2 HR), 20 RBI, 25 BB, 69 K, 9-for-12 SB

2014 Salary: $2.25 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 34

While he's a plus defender in either corner outfield spot, it hasn't been a banner year for Chris Denorfia at the plate, evidenced by his meager slash line. But he's a right-handed batter who has traditionally hit left-handed pitching very well, slashing .293/.360/.428 against southpaws over the course of his career.

There's always a place for a player like that on a team's bench.

He's coming off a two-year, $4.25 million extension that he signed with San Diego in 2012, a deal that he grossly outperformed (FanGraphs values his play over the past two seasons at a combined $21.2 million).

While he could be a candidate for a similar deal as the extension as a free agent, a one-year pact seems far more likely given his age and recent struggles at the plate.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $3.5 million

RP Zach Duke

2014 Stats: 72 G, 5-1, 2.54 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 56.2 IP, 49 H, 16 BB, 71 K

2014 Salary: $850,000

Age on Opening Day 2015: 31

Signed to a minor league contract by Milwaukee before the season, Zach Duke has been one of the biggest bargains in baseball. Viewed as a left-handed specialist heading into the season, the former starter has been tough against batters from both sides of the plate, holding the opposition to a .229/.283/.308 slash line.

He's been especially tough against left-handed batters, as you'd expect, holding them to the 16th-lowest batting average (.202) and OPS (.573) among all major league pitchers, not just relievers. Even with a predicted 300 percent increase in salary, Duke would still be a relative bargain for any team's bullpen.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $2.5 million

DH Adam Dunn

2014 Stats: .224/.342/.426, 39 XBH (22 HR), 62 RBI, 69 BB, 148 K, 1-for-2 SB

2014 Salary: $15 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 35

No longer a lock for retirement after the season, as he told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle shortly after being traded to Oakland, Adam Dunn's ability to get on base consistently and put the ball in the stands is sure to garner significant interest from American League teams this winter.

That he's not playing under the four-year, $56 million deal that he signed with the Chicago White Sox in 2010 anymore and is widely regarded as a fantastic teammate and clubhouse influence isn't going to hurt his chances of landing with a contender, either.

Simply put, there isn't a team in the American League that couldn't use Dunn's powerful left-handed bat, whether it be as a full-time designated hitter or as a bat off the bench.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $7.5 million

SP Gavin Floyd

2014 Stats: 9 GS, 2-2, 2.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 54.1 IP, 55 H, 13 BB, 45 K

2014 Salary: $4 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 32

Tommy John surgery wasn't enough to keep Gavin Floyd from finding a new home last winter, so it stands to reason that the fractured elbow that sidelined his return in 2014 won't be a significant hurdle for him to overcome this winter.

That he's made only 14 starts over the past two years is going to scare some teams off, but Floyd averaged 12 wins and 190 innings a year from 2008-12, so there's a track record of success for teams to point to as the potential upside to bringing him aboard.

Floyd is going to have to settle for another incentive-laden deal, similar to the one that he signed with Atlanta last year, but he could wind up as one of the real bargains of the winter if he can stay healthy and solidify the back end of a team's rotation.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $4 million (with significant incentives)

RP Tom Gorzelanny

2014 Stats: 22 G, 0-0, 0.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 21 H, 6 BB, 23 K

2014 Salary: $2.8 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 32

Sidelined for more than two months of the season as he recovered from 2013 shoulder surgery, Tom Gorzelanny has put up solid numbers in limited action out of Milwaukee's bullpen.

Traditionally stronger against left-handed batters, Gorzelanny has flipped his splits this season, struggling against southpaws while proving to be very tough on right-handed bats.

His limited innings, coupled with his issues against lefties, will give some teams pause this winter, but his career 2.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP as a reliever will land him a multiyear deal with a club looking to add another left-handed arm to its bullpen.

Forecasted Contract: Two years, $4.5 million

RP Luke Gregerson

2014 Stats: 69 G, 5-4, 2.09 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 69 IP, 54 H, 15 BB, 58 K

2014 Salary: $5.065 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 30

While he's proved that he's not the guy you want on the mound in the ninth inning, blowing seven of nine save opportunities in Oakland this year, Luke Gregerson continues to prove that he's one of the game's premier setup men.

Tied for seventh in the American League with 22 holds (via ESPN), the veteran reliever has pitched to the lowest ERA of his career—the fourth consecutive season that he's posted an ERA below 2.80. Since he broke into the majors in 2009, only two pitchers have posted a lower eighth-inning ERA than his 2.02.

While he's due a raise over his current salary, Gregerson's ability to bridge the gap between a team's starter and its closer is incredibly valuable—certainly worth more than what he's going to wind up making.

Forecasted Contract: Three years, $18.5 million

SP Hiroki Kuroda

2014 Stats: 31 GS, 11-9, 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 199 IP, 188 H, 35 BB, 137 K

2014 Salary: $16 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 40

Before you roll your eyes at Hiroki Kuroda's inclusion on a list of greatest free-agent values, consider that the veteran has outperformed his salary in all but two of his seven major league seasons (per FanGraphs), including the three years that he's spent in the Bronx.

Chances are that he's heading back to Los Angeles to rejoin the Dodgers this winter (either that or a return to Japan to finish his career), and it's true that starters over the age of 40 tend to be far less effective than they used to be.

But Kuroda has never been a thrower. He's a pitcher, and he's shown the ability to adapt his game when a particular pitch isn't working for him on a given day. Consistent and reliable, there's never a question as to whether Kuroda will be available to take the ball every fifth day—and give his team a chance to win.

That alone makes him far more valuable than his salary dictates.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $15 million

SP Brandon McCarthy

2014 Stats: 31 GS, 10-14, 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 194.2 IP, 211 H, 33 BB, 167 K

2014 Salary: $9 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 31

If Brandon McCarthy has his way, he won't reach the open market and will work out an extension to stay in New York, as he told Newsday's Erik Boland back in August:

"

This is a place, it would be hard to turn down. There's nothing that doesn't line up with my way of approaching the game. There's nobody here that makes me think this is something I have to get away from. 

I haven't yet found a downside. I try and look at things rationally and logically and pick things apart and find good and bad. When you're not able to find a negative so far in a month, it's a good sign, I think.

"

McCarthy's career has been rejuvenated in the Bronx, with the veteran right-hander pitching to a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 85 innings of work, striking out 74. That's a huge difference from his numbers to begin the season in Arizona, where he pitched to a 5.01 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 18 starts.

He does have a lengthy history of injury, which will keep teams from throwing big bucks his way, but when he's healthy, McCarthy is a legitimate No. 2 or No. 3 starter in a contender's rotation.

Forecasted Contract: Three years, $42 million

CF Colby Rasmus

2014 Stats: .225/.287/.448, 40 XBH (18 HR), 40 RBI, 29 BB, 124 K, 4-for-4 SB

2014 Salary: $7 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 28

Normally, players in the prime of their career who wind up losing their job as an everyday player aren't going to take the demotion well. That's not been the case with Colby Rasmus, who has carried himself like a professional ever since he was benched in favor of younger players in Toronto.

“I’ll be playing whenever they think I should play and I’m just going to be sitting around watching these rookies play,” Rasmus told John Lott of The National Post. "I'm not down about it, no hard feelings. I’m just going to come in and pull for these boys and hope they do good.”

While Rasmus never lived up to the expectations that surrounded him when he was a highly touted prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, he's only a year removed from hitting .276 with 27 home runs and an .840 OPS.

When he's swinging the bat well, Rasmus has proved to be an above-average defender in center field. When he's struggling at the plate, those struggles travel with him into the outfield.

That inconsistency is going to severely limit his earning power on the open market, but there's still some upside in his game—someone is going to get a bargain when it signs him to a deal.

Forecasted Contract: Two years, $16 million

1B/3B Mark Reynolds

2014 Stats: .196/.287/.394, 31 XBH (22 HR), 45 RBI, 47 BB, 122 K, 5-for-6 SB

2014 Salary: $2 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 31

Mark Reynolds is never going to hit for average, and he's always going to strike out at an absurd rate, but the veteran infielder has been an absolute steal for Milwaukee on a one-year, $2 million deal in 2014.

Not only does Reynolds provide right-handed power, but he's proved to be an above-average defender at both first base and third base, making him far more valuable than someone like Adam Dunn, another all-or-nothing-type player at the plate.

But Reynolds isn't going to command anywhere near what Dunn will on the open market, keeping him as one of the great values in the game.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $4.5 million

OF Ichiro Suzuki

2014 Stats: .285/.325/.335, 14 XBH (1 HR), 20 RBI, 20 BB, 66 K, 13-for-16 SB

2014 Salary: $6.5 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 41

He's no longer the best hitter on the planet and his days of stealing 40-plus bases in a season are long gone, but Ichiro Suzuki is still a capable player, both at the plate and in the field.

Injuries have forced Suzuki into action more often than the Yankees would have liked, but among players that began the season in New York, he leads the team in batting average. While advanced metrics aren't kind to his defense, Ichiro still has enough speed to get to balls hit down the line or in the gap, while his throwing arm remains one of the best in the game.

Entering his age-41 season, Ichiro is faced with a future of one-year deals, the perfect length of a deal for a veteran who is best served as part of a platoon or strictly as a team's fourth outfielder.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $5 million

RP/SP Carlos Villanueva

2014 Stats: 41 G (5 GS), 5-7, 4.64 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 75.2 IP, 87 H, 19 BB, 70 K

2014 Salary: $5 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 31

Carlos Villanueva the starter is an absolute mess, a player no team wants anywhere near its rotation. In five starts for the Chicago Cubs this season, he's pitched to a 10.53 ERA and 2.19 WHIP.

Carlos Villanueva the reliever is significantly more effective, with a 2.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 36 relief appearances. That he's been used as a starter throughout his career allows him to toss multiple innings if needed, always a valuable commodity for a team to have in its bullpen.

His mediocre overall numbers—which are misleading, given his 3.18 FIP and 3.65 xFIP—will likely keep his price down on the open market. But it's not hard to see Villanueva exceeding expectations and outperforming his next deal in relatively short fashion given the advanced metrics.

Forecasted Contract: Two years, $12 million

OF/DH Josh Willingham

2014 Stats: .218/.349/.401, 25 XBH (14 HR), 40 RBI, 53 BB, 101 K, 2-for-2 SB

2014 Salary: $7 million

Age on Opening Day 2015: 36

It's been a rough two years for Josh Willingham, who has missed significant time due to injury in both 2013 and 2014, injuries that severely limited his ability to produce at the plate.

A below-average fielder who is best utilized as a designated hitter at this point in his career, the 11-year veteran offers power from the right side of the plate and isn't against drawing a walk to get on base.

While he'll likely never replicate his 2012 numbers in Minnesota (.260 BA, 35 HR, 110 RBI), Willingham can still be a run-producing bat in the bottom half of a team's lineup.

Forecasted Contract: One year, $5 million

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games of Sept. 22. All official contract information courtesy of Cots' Contracts.

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