Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Miami Dolphins are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread the last four times as home favorites, while Kansas City is 3-1 ATS the last four times as a road underdog.

Can the Dolphins buck their recent troubling trend, or will the Chiefs extend their positive streak when the teams meet at Sun Life Stadium on Sunday afternoon?

Historically, the Chiefs never win in Miami (losers in seven of eight visits here, according to the Odds Shark matchup report).

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 23.4-21.5 Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS after getting upset at home by Tennessee and then losing a tough game at Denver. K.C. got thoroughly outplayed by the Titans but rebounded with a good effort last week against the rival Broncos, outrushing them 133-88 and holding the ball for over 36 minutes.

At +13, Kansas City never trailed by more than 11 points in Denver and got as close as 21-17 with a score midway through the fourth quarter, although that is as close as the Chiefs would get. Running back Jamaal Charles hasn't done anything yet this year and is now out with a sprained ankle, but second-year man Knile Davis came up with 79 yards on 22 carries against the Broncos.

K.C. is now 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS on the road under Coach Andy Reid and 3-2 ATS as an underdog.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are 1-1 both SU and ATS with an upset win over New England and a loss last week at Buffalo. Miami rallied from a 10-point deficit against the Patriots, dominating the second half, shutting out Brady and company for the last 30 minutes.

The Dolphins outrushed New England 191-89, as newcomer Knowshon Moreno rambled for 134 yards and a score. Last week, Miami only trailed by six points late into the third quarter before the game got away. The Fins actually beat the Bills in first downs 23-13 and held the ball for over 31 minutes, but they also gave up a touchdown on a kickoff return.

Moreno went down and out last week with an elbow injury, but Lamar Miller, the former Hurricane who ran for 700 yards last year, came in and gained 46 yards on 11 carries.

Smart Pick

The Chiefs had that great start to last year, but that's a distant memory now, having gone 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, including that playoff collapse against the Colts last January. Miami, meanwhile, was up for a big second half against New England, then came down last week against Buffalo.

Which, in the topsy-turvy world that is the NFL means the Fins might be up for a bounce-back effort this week. So the pick here is with Miami, giving the points.

Trends

• Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last eight games when playing on the road against Miami.
• Dolphins are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home games vs. the AFC West.
• The under is 6-1-1 in Kansas City’s last eight games as road underdogs.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.