NFL Predictions Week 3: Upset Picks and Projections

When it comes to the NFL, it's best to expect the unexpected.

We've already seen several surprising results through the first two weeks of the regular season, and with injuries sweeping through the entire league, more chaos is on the horizon. 

No matter how unlikely they seem on paper, upsets are a weekly staple of the NFL. Let's take a look at some of this week's best candidates. 

Note: Upsets are determined via odds courtesy of OddsShark.com. 

Washington Redskins (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Monday night, the Eagles let Trent Richardson tally 79 yards on 21 carries. You may be thinking, "OK, 3.8 yards per carry. Who cares about that stat?"

Normally it wouldn't be noteworthy, but this is Trent Richardson we're talking about here. The former first-round pick who has suddenly turned into the most loathed running back in the league. The plodding, painfully slow back who is more likely to fall over after running into the backside of one of his own lineman than he is to break a tackle. 

Sports Illustrated's Peter Bukowski put it best:

Now, consider the following: It was just the third time Richardson averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 18 games with Indianapolis, and the first time he had three runs of 10 yards or more since October 6 of last year. His 79 rushing yards were the most since his rookie season.

Yes, there's a point here. If Richardson is going to have one of his best games as a Colt, then Alfred Morris, one of the league's most underrated ball-carriers, is going to have a field day against this defense, especially if rising star Mychal Kendricks (calf, still no significant update at the time of this writing) is out or limited. 

Playing in Philly, where the Eagles are just 14-19 since 2010 (20-13 on the road), The Butler is going to run wild, keeping Chip Kelly's explosive offense off the field just enough for the 'Skins to win a high-scoring contest. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins

Tim Umphrey/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 in the standings, but last week's performance against the Denver Broncos suggested that's a little misleading. 

Playing the AFC champs on the road, the Chiefs lost by seven but had a chance to tie the game from inside Denver's 5-yard line in the last minute. While there is no such thing as a moral victory, Andy Reid's squad displayed massive improvement after a Week 1 embarrassment at home against the Tennessee Titans. 

And as much as Lauren may try to argue otherwise, Ryan Tannehill, who completed a pedestrian 4.9 yards per pass last week, is not quite on Peyton Manning's level. Throw in the loss of Knowshon Moreno in the running game, and the Chiefs defense should control this game. 

On the other side of the ball, Knile Davis is more than capable of filling Jamaal Charles' shoes, while the increased usage of Travis Kelce will only result in good things. As Pro Football Focus noted, the talented second-year tight end is making the most of limited opportunities so far:

"

Tight end with the most yards per route run so far? Niles Paul with 3.85, just ahead of Travis Kelce (3.82) and Julius Thomas (3.31).

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) September 16, 2014"

A favorable matchup for the defense plus Kelce adding a new dynamic to the offense equals the Chiefs avoiding 0-3 on the road.

Arizona Cardinals (+2) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Even after losing Darnell Dockett to a torn ACL in the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals have remained the same brick wall against the run. They are currently allowing just 2.0 yards per carry, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. 

With Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde struggling to find running lanes, the San Francisco 49ers are going to have to turn to Colin Kaepernick and the passing game. And judging by last week's performance, that's not a good thing. 

Kaepernick was efficient moving the ball, but he threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter that helped the Chicago Bears score 21 unanswered points for the win. He was understandably a harsh critic of his own performance, via the Mercury News' Tim Kawakami:

As for the Cardinals offense, even if Carson Palmer isn't able to play, Drew Stanton proved he can manage a game, and against a 49ers defense struggling to create a pass rush without Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman, he'll be able to do just that. 

Andre Ellington breaks a long one, and the Arizona defense does the rest at home in a low-scoring war.