MLB Free Agents 2014-15: Ranking the 10 Best Sleepers

Most MLB organizations operate under a constricting budget, forcing them to pinch every penny when constructing a roster over the offseason.

When the risky free-agency process begins this winter, those squads will pass the top hierarchy of stars and instead search for value signings.

Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Nelson Cruz are all getting paid handsomely this offseason. Anybody who wants one of those stars will have to break into Walter White's storage unit to afford the monstrous contract.

They'll also require long-term investments, which hasn't worked well for teams willing to empty their pockets.

How do you think Brian Cashman feels about owing 30-year-old catcher Brian McCann and his .289 on-base percentage $68 million over four more years? Better or worse than having to shell out $30 million more through 2016 to Carlos Beltran, who turns 38 next April and wields a minus-0.4 fWAR?

Across town, the New York Mets are stuck with Curtis Granderson for three additional seasons. The outfielder hitting .222/.322/.377 hardly warrants another $45 million.

Instead of paying top dollar for big names, buying low on veterans whose stock has plummeted presents clubs with the greater value.

Following that format, the Boston Red Sox struck big with Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Stephen Drew two years ago. The Baltimore Orioles hit a figurative home run by giving a one-year, $8 million deal to Cruz, who has hit 39 actual home runs this year.

Although Chris Young, Corey Hart and Kelly Johnson fizzled, they won't dilate each of their team's payroll past September. With all that cash involved, teams will want to minimize the inherent risks as much as possible while maximizing the return on investment.

None of these players are sure to strive in 2015. When they sign, only the truly dedicated fans will give it much notice.

Yet these are solid players who can come cheap due to injuries, declining production or a simple misconception of their actual worth.

Honorable Mentions

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Chris Young's late-season revival keeps him relevant during free agency.

Chris Young, OF, New York Yankees

Safe to say nobody is paying Chris Young $7.5 million this time, but his ridiculous 1.256 OPS in 11 games with the Yankees will spur some interest. The Bronx Bombers should consider giving him another one-year deal for around $3-4 million.

Josh Johnson, SP, San Diego Padres

Josh Johnson hasn't pitched this season after undergoing his second elbow surgery in April. As a provision of the one-year deal he signed last year, the San Diego Padres can exercise a $4 million option for 2015.

That's a hefty price to pay for an injured 30-year-old with one 200-inning season under his belt, but the former ace is worth a smaller, incentive-packed flier.

Jason Grilli, RP, Los Angeles Angels

Since the Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh Pirates swapped their disappointing late-inning firearms, Jason Grilli has redeemed a slow start with a 2.90 ERA through 31 innings for L.A.

Given his strong 2013, where he conversely started strong as the closer before fading late, his market value may not stray too low.

Grilli can especially secure a lucrative offer with a strong postseason, which could strip him of any sleeper status.

10. Nate Schierholtz, OF, Washington Nationals

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Nate Schierholtz is a year removed from clubbing 21 home runs.

Teams must be willing to dig deep to uncover a hidden gem at a marginal cost. Most people would see a 30-year-old outfielder hitting .190/.238/300 and run away in terror, but Nate Schierholtz should find an opportunistic owner in 2015.

Schierholtz has stunk this season. Quite terribly. Only a year ago, however, he contributed 21 homers with a .470 slugging percentage.

That power is not readily available, especially for pennies. Well, more like thousands, maybe even a million or two dollars, but that's chump change for baseball franchises.

The lefty bat offers a very specific function, as he's made for the heavy end of a lefty-righty platoon. Last season, he hit .262/.300/.499 with 20 long balls against righties. Although dreadful against everyone this year, a further look explains his downfall.

Terrifyingly enough, Schierholtz's .197 average against lefties trumps his .189 average versus right-handed pitchers. That's because he has suffered terrible misfortune against righties, contriving a .210 BABIP compared to a cooler .300 against same-handed tossers.

Over his career, he holds a .281 BABIP against righties. Yes, he's a pull hitter whose style leads to putting less balls in play in hopes of finding gaps, but such an unusual number below the mean will hinder anyone.

Don't expect any miracles, but why not see if Schierholtz can return closer to his 2013 production? At the worst, any prospective buyer has a fourth outfielder to use as a pinch hitter.

9. Luke Hochevar, RP, Kansas City Royals

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Luke Hochevar broke out in his new bullpen role before needing Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow.

When the Kansas City Royals drafted Luke Hochevar with the No. 1 pick a decade ago, they probably dreaded the day the prized arm would bolt from the low-budget club.

His career, however, has endured a few twists along the way. The beloved young righty stumbled as a major league starter, prompting Kansas City to test his resolve in the bullpen. There he flourished, posting a 1.92 ERA and 82 strikeouts through 70.1 innings.

Right after reviving his career, the righty was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in his pitching elbow. Last week, he played catch for the first time in six months, leading the 31-year-old to express hope for a timely recovery for next season to The Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough.

“I’d like to think I could go into spring training like just any other time,” Hochevar said. “Especially with the timing of it, with it happening in March, and having my surgery done in March. That would be almost a full year.”

Moving Wade Davis from the rotation to the bullpen also worked resoundingly, so the Royals will likely pony up the $7 million for his club option. They also have Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera due arbitration hearings in a crowded relief corps.

Even if fully healthy, Hochevar will struggle to retain his 92.1 percent strand rate and .214 BABIP, so his ERA will hover over 2.00.

But he found his niche working a shorter shift, ballooning his swinging-strike percentage from 8.5 to a career-high 13.4. He generated opposing batting averages under .200 against righties (.138) and lefties (.195), a valuable trait of a reliever.

It's in everyone's best interest for Hochevar to take a one-year deal so he can repair his value heading into the 2016 season. The team that gambles on him this winter could reap the true rewards.

8. Grady Sizemore, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

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Grady Sizemore has slowly improved during his first MLB season since 2011.

The Boston Red Sox already tried this, but they eventually grew bored of Grady Sizemore and cut him. In his first slice of MLB action since 2011, he hit .211/.288/.324.

Then the Philadelphia Phillies were next in line to audition the former star, and he has delivered much better results. Through 51 games, he's hitting .272/.323/.422. Curtis Granderson got $60 million after sporting a .229/.317/.407 slash line.

Once he blew off the rust, Sizemore has become a decent threat again. He's not the 30/30 monster of old. In fact, he'll need a strong finish to close at 10/10. Yet he has still offered solid production for Philadelphia.

He should, however, only play against righties considering his .191 average against southpaws. Now that teams are more willing to employ platoons, that's not a deal-breaker,

One would have expected some defensive turmoil for the oft-injured veteran, but the 32-year-old has looked good patrolling left field, where he has amassed four Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). He won't roam center field again, but he's not a defensive liability like other aging, battered outfielders.

In his prime, Sizemore was a perennial MVP candidate who would have easily pocketed $150 million on the open market. Now he might cost $3 million. If he can stay healthy, he's worth a shot.

7. Colby Lewis, SP, Texas Rangers

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Colby Lewis has not pitched as bad as his 5.12 ERA indicates this season.

I know what you're thinking. OK, no I don't, but you might possibly be wondering, "Who wants a 35-year-old with a 5.12 ERA who missed all of 2013 with a hip injury?"

Flaws equal opportunity, and those ugly warts could turn Colby Lewis into a value for somebody needing an experienced arm to fill a rotation.

On Aug. 11, FanGraphs' Mike Podhorzer anticipated a strong finish from Lewis once his fortune on batted balls evened out.

"

Colby Lewis leads all starters with at least 40 innings pitched in BABIP. And sure, his line drive rate is somewhat elevated and he has induced a surprisingly low IFFB% [infield fly-ball percentage] given his fly ball ways, but no one is deserving of a .373 BABIP. His strikeout and walk rates remain solid and he could very well carve out some AL-Only league value the rest of the way. 

"

Since then, Lewis has registered a 4.22 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. That recent stretch lines up closer with his 4.32 FIP, a better indicator of what his future employer can expect next season.

Spectacular? No, but decent for a backend starter who has averaged 6.9 innings pitched during his past 10 starts.

Podhorzer tailored his recommendations to fantasy baseball players, but a veteran innings-eater stores more appeal for an actual MLB squad. In 2010, Lewis recorded a 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 169 strikeouts and 56 walks through 200.1 innings, a solid barometer for what he can accomplish in 2015.

That production earned him a 2.5 fWAR, so allotting Lewis $6 or $7 million is a worthwhile investment. 

6. Luke Gregerson, RP, Oakland Athletics

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Luke Gregerson has firmly remained one of baseball's best relievers over the past six seasons.

MLB general managers are too smart to appraise relief pitchers solely by saves these days, right?

There are other intriguing bullpen arms without the closer description to deflate their price tag. Zach Duke and Joba Chamberlain are intriguing options, but they both have unraveled late in the season.

With a 1.96 ERA and 14.93 K/9 rate, Andrew Miller has dominated too much to preserve the sleeper label.

Yet none of them can match Luke Gregerson's reliability. One of the game's most dependable middle relievers, he has posted a 2.76 career ERA through six sterling seasons as a middle reliever and set-up man. His ERA hasn't veered over 3.00 since 2010.

Since entering the league in 2009, only Tyler Clippard has tossed more innings from the bullpen than Gregerson.

Most of last year's top bullpen free agents had a long lineage of closer experience (Joe Nathan, Brian Wilson, Fernando Rodney) or recent success in the role (Edward Mujica, Casey Janssen, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour). 

The best example of a pure middle reliever: Matt Thornton, who earned $7 million over two years despite displaying signs for concern with a 3.74 ERA and career-low 6.23 K/9 rate.

With a 2.71 ERA and 8.68 K/9 ratio for the Oakland Athletics, Gregerson should come at no such discount. 

Considering he brandishes superior career numbers across the board to Rodney, a similar deal of two years for $14 million is justifiable. No reliever netted more than two seasons of job security last year, so don't expect anyone other than David Robertson to buck that trend this offseason.

It wouldn't come as much of a shocker to see a team award Gregerson closer money, perhaps with the intention of making him the ninth-inning man, but the 30-year-old is still a cheaper alternative to a "proven closer" a la Francisco Rodriguez.

5. Justin Masterson, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

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Justin Masterson obliterated his chances of receiving a big deal in free agency.

Nobody's market value plummeted more than Justin Masterson's, who tailspun from ace consideration to rotation banishment.

A short season ago, Masterson accrued a 3.45 ERA and 195 strikeouts through 193 innings. His play earned him $9.8 million while he closed out his arbitration window this year. Now he'd be lucky to make that in free agency.

The 29-year-old has registered a horrific 5.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Although never a control artist, his appalling 4.90 BB/9 rate compelled the Cleveland Indians to dump him off on the St. Louis Cardinals.

STL then expelled him to the bullpen after he surrendered five earned runs during five of his last seven starts.

I'm not going to write off those struggles. Along with those costly free passes, his fastball velocity dipped by over two miles per hour, leading his line-drive rate to accelerate to a career-worst 20.4 percent.

Yet a .343 BABIP remains high for someone who constantly incites weak contact. Among starters who have thrown at least 100 innings, only Dallas Keuchel has a ground-ball percentage higher than Masterson's 58.2 percent.

That places the onus on his infielders to convert those grounders into outs, and Cleveland ranks 29th in Defensive WAR. A better defense and improved command can lead Masterson back toward his 4.25 ERA.

He destroyed his value this year, providing a savvy team with the ultimate buy-low situation.

4. Jed Lowrie, SS, Oakland Athletics

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Despite a rough season at the plate, Jed Lowrie remains an enticing option at shortstop.

Timing is everything, and Jed Lowrie will learn that lesson the hard way.

Had he entered free agency last year, we'd discuss a four-year, $60 million deal on the horizon for a shortstop who hit .290/.344/.466 with 15 homers and 80 RBI.

Among qualified shortstops, he ranked second in on-base percentage, third in slugging and second in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at 120.

Now he's batting .244/.319/.353 with six homers, so he'll need an incredible finish to sniff such a profound payday.

Even if 2013's .290 average resulted from a fluky .319 BABIP, his current .275 mark regressed too much given his 23.8 percent line-drive rate. His .260 career average seems just right.

As for his power, he delivered a career-high 16 long balls in just 387 plate appearances for the Houston Astros two years ago. Over his seven years in the majors, he has hit 56 homers in 631 games, amounting to an average of 14 over a full season.

Defensively, his advanced metrics are scattered. While he fares well with a 1.8 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), his minus-seven DRS paints an uglier picture. Last year, Lowrie cost Oakland an estimated 18 runs.

Yet pickings are slim at shortstop, where only four qualified players hold an on-base percentage above .325. The teams that missed out on Ramirez should turn to Lowrie, who will hold his weight if he replicates his career .741 OPS.

3. Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees

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Chase Headley will benefit offensively from leaving San Diego, but defense remains his prime strength.

The Padres gifted Chase Headley the perfect chance to enhance his value by shipping him to the Yankees. From Petco Park to Yankee Stadium, the third baseman held an ideal opportunity to showcase his bat in a friendlier habitat.

He hasn't responded with a power spark, hitting four homers with a .368 slugging percentage. That's OK though, because everyone understands his 31-homer season is the clear outlier. Nobody is paying him for towering power.

Headley has made an impact for New York with a .350 on-base percentage, right on par with his career .346 tally. He came into the trade hitting .227, but the number is up to .237. Below .300 for the first time in his career, his .294 BABIP is the culprit for those doldrums.

Don't expect an awesome average of anything more than 15 long balls, but Headley's keen eye lends him to a high on-base percentage. With an 11 DRS at third base this season, he'll earn most of his salary in the field.

Teams and analysts alike both struggle to properly gauge the true value of exceptional defense. Stephen Drew couldn't land a deal on the strength of his glove until May, so the 30-year-old probably won't land the big bucks based on his skillful work at the hot corner.

Even in a down year, FanGraphs gives him a 3.3 WAR due to his defense. It's likely too high considering his .673 OPS, but Baseball-Reference.com's 2.6 WAR still justifies a starting salary of more than $12 million per year.

Due to his offensive struggles, Headley might not receive an offer befitting his worth.

2. J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore Orioles

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After three years of stellar power, J.J. Hardy has hit nine home runs during his contract year.

Heading into 2014, J.J. Hardy hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three seasons. No shortstop hit as many deep flies over that stretch, with Hardy sending 77 over the fences and Troy Tulowitzki's 63 good for second.

During his contract season, Hardy has hit nine homers, putting him in jeopardy of finishing without a double-digit tally for the first time since 2006. He only played 35 games in 2006.

Besides the power loss, he's doing just fine. In fact, he's benefiting from a career-high .327 BABIP to give him a .279 batting average.

He's producing fly balls at the same rate, generating a 37.6 fly-ball rate right in line with his 38.6 career percentage. Except only 6 percent of those flies served as a prelude to him rounding the bases in 2014.

The power should return, and when it does, the deadly combination of slugging and defense makes Hardy a top-10 shortstop.

Defensive metrics typically fluctuate, but Hardy has saved the Baltimore Orioles at least eight runs in each of the last four seasons. Given that consistency, Hardy's 3.6 fWAR should not be discredited.

Jhonny Peralta earned $53 million over four years with that same 3.6 fWAR. Then again, he also had an .815 OPS, so Hardy won't get that much money unless somebody is really desperate.

Do any big-market teams need to find a replacement shortstop this offseason?

1. Russell Martin, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Russell Martin has played like a superstar catcher this season. Will he get paid like one?

Russell Martin is the top free-agent catcher. Teams know and appreciate him as one of the game's finest catchers. Even then, they likely don't comprehend just how terrific he is.

He's not the young gun who fell one homer shy of a rare 20/20 season behind the plate. This year, he just hit his 10th dinger on Tuesday night. For what he lacks in fence-clearing power, however, he makes up everywhere else.

His .294 batting average is too good to be true, as he posts a .259 career mark. His 13.1 percent walk rate, which has increased in each of the past three years, is legit.

No catcher exceeds his .408 on-base percentage. His 143 wRC+ falls slightly shy of Buster Posey's 144 wRC+, even though the 2012 National League MVP has double the home runs. Posey and Jonathan Lucroy are the only two backstops with a higher fWAR.

Even last season, when he hit .226, Martin accumulated a 4.1 fWAR, all on the prowess of his catching acumen. Under FanGraphs' model, he was worth $20.5 million last year. This season, his estimated value is $26.8 million and counting.

There's no chance he'll make anywhere close to that. He's still a catcher who turns 32 before next Opening Day. Yet plate discipline and pitch framing hold up better than raw power and speed, so he won't toil away to uselessness at the backend of his agreement.

Going off FanGraphs' WAR, he's the most valuable free-agent position player, trailing Lester and Scherzer among the entire field. But given the justifiable concerns, he shouldn't require a long-term commitment.

I'd certainly take the under on him matching McCann's five-year, $85 million deal, even though Martin is the far better choice going forward.

All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.