Champions League: Why It's Too Soon for a Premier League Club to Win This Year

After featuring at least one English finalist in seven out of eight years between 2005 and 2012, and nine out of a possible 12 semi-finalist spots between 2007 and 2009, the Champions League has certainly not been the happy hunting ground it once was for English clubs in the last few years.

And while fans of the quartet involved can expect a stronger showing this year, it is difficult to see a Premier League club winning it again just yet after a tough period.

Indeed, despite winning the competition against all odds in 2012, Chelsea were knocked out at the group stage the following season; so, too, were Manchester United—who will not feature this season—for the first time in 2011-12.

Manchester City only reached the knockout stage for the first time last season after two dismal group-stage exits themselves, while Arsenal have failed to reach the last eight since 2009-10.

That said, it is not all doom and gloom. England still has three clubs in the top 10 of the UEFA club coefficients and remains second in the overall country coefficients.

However, after being overtaken in the latter by Spain in 2012 for the first time in five years, the gap between the two nations has now significantly widened; particularly after Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla comprised three of the four European final spots last campaign.

This is reflective of the shift in power from the Premier League to La Liga, which can probably be traced from the sale of Cristiano Ronaldo from Manchester United to Real Madrid for a world-record fee of £80 million in July 2009.

That hammer blow arrived only six weeks after the Red Devils had been comprehensively beaten 2-0 by Pep Guardiola's Barcelona in the Champions League final.

Since then, of course, Real and Barcelona have also snapped up reigning Premier League players of the season in Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez respectively.

Moreover, Bayern Munich—who reached three out of four finals between 2010 and 2013—boast multiple German World Cup winners within their ranks, as well as the likes of Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Robert Lewandowski.

All six aforementioned players ranked high in Sam Tighe's look at the top 100 players in this season's Champions League for Bleacher Report, with no Premier League player featuring in the top eight.

This rightly represents that the vast majority of truly elite players now represent these three super-clubs of European football.

However, this has shown signs of changing this summer, with the likes of Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez and Mario Balotelli all joining Premier League clubs involved in the Champions League. Radamel Falcao and Angel Di Maria, too, have arrived, although will not feature in Europe this season.

It is fitting, then, that English clubs' chances of strongly competing again appear improved in a Champions League campaign which will coincide with the return of Liverpool: historically England's most successful European side and the top-ranked club in Europe as recently as February 2009.

All four English clubs should certainly reach the knockout stages, as was the case last season.

Where Manchester City and Arsenal went wrong, however, was failing to take their chances to finish above Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, leaving themselves open to tough draws in the round of 16.

It is difficult to see Liverpool avoiding such a fate, having been drawn in Group B alongside Real Madrid, although no potential winner of Groups C or H would frighten the five-time European Cup winners if they were fortunate enough to draw them.

It is doubly difficult, however, to see them or indeed Arsenal going all the way.

Unlike City and Chelsea, in Fernando and Nemanja Matic respectively, neither side has signed a top-quality defensive midfielder in 2014.

Instead, they largely rely on ageing, former attack-minded midfielders in Steven Gerrard (34) and Mikel Arteta (32), in a position which magnifies in importance during major European ties.

Both are undeniably excellent platforms in terms of building possession—a key mantra of both sides—with Gerrard notching up more Premier League assists than any other player last season.

Arteta, meanwhile, as per WhoScored.com, averaged the third-highest passes per game count in the league last season but was also dribbled past almost twice per game, looking noticeably exposed in Arsenal’s notorious big-game thrashings.

It is certainly difficult to think of a recent Champions League winner without better midfield protection.

City and Chelsea, too, looked vulnerable in that area in their two-legged exits to Barcelona and Atletico last season.

Manuel Pellegrini and Jose Mourinho clearly recognised this, even deploying customary centre-backs Martin Demichelis and David Luiz as holding midfielders in the two sides' tussle at the Etihad.

Now that they have more permanently addressed the issue, they should be all the stronger for it in such encounters.

Just as the likes of Michael Essien and Javier Mascherano did during the mini era of English dominance in the Champions League, Matic and Fernando can also help attacking threats such as Costa, Fabregas, Eden Hazard, David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure flourish.

It is a balance the holders Real Madrid are currently trying to solve after Xabi Alonso and the effervescent Di Maria were curiously allowed to depart for pastures new.

And it could even be an issue that prevents Real’s new group of galacticos becoming the first side to retain the Champions League at the Olympiastadion next June.

Despite great strides made by English sides in the summer transfer window, even if Carlo Ancelotti's men were to miss out, recent history and a simple glance at the wealth of players available to them suggest it would inevitably be one of their two fellow super-clubs to capitalise.