Odds for Each of MLB's Top Wild-Card Contenders Winning It All
Welcome to baseball's version of the Thunderdome, where two teams enter and one team leaves.
Faced with roughly 10 games to prove themselves worthy of a spot in the playoffs, nine teams—four in the American League, five in the National League—find themselves in a battle to keep their seasons alive. Six of those teams are still battling it out for division supremacy, hoping to avoid the Wild Card Game.
It's true that five wild-card teams have been crowned World Series champions, a feat most recently accomplished by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011. But to pull it off, a number of things have to line up perfectly.
In putting together these updated odds for each wild-card contender being able to follow the Cardinals' lead, we'll look at the following things:
- What the team's latest odds of winning the World Series are, according to OddsShark.com
- How its remaining schedule looks: Can the team get hot heading into the playoffs?
- How the rotation is lined up: Will its ace be available to start the Wild Card Game?
- Recent results and potential playoff matchups
Rather than turn to a tired cliche, I turn to Phish to put the upcoming week of baseball into its proper perspective. From their classic "AC/DC Bag": "Time to put your money where your mouth is. Put 'em in a field and let 'em fight it out."
Fighting it out in a field is exactly what we're about to witness—and what glorious battles they should be.
Detroit Tigers
1 of 9
Current Record: 84-68, 0.5-game lead over Kansas City in AL Central
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 8-to-1
Whether the Detroit Tigers can hold off the Kansas City Royals for the AL Central crown or not will dictate if the Tigers make the postseason as a division champion or wild-card entrant, but the concerns surrounding the team's ability to make a deep playoff run remain the same.
Namely, the ninth inning, where the team's bullpen has pitched to a 5.44 ERA, which cracks the top 40 of ineptitude since 1914, and a 1.57 WHIP, which cracks the top 70.
Detroit is going to need its starters to go deep into games, and the way things are currently lined up, manager Brad Ausmus will have to decide between the American League's last two Cy Young Award winners, David Price and Max Scherzer, to take the ball in a Wild Card Game.
That's not a bad situation to be in.
Also working in the Tigers' favor is that Miguel Cabrera has found his groove, hitting .469 with 12 extra-base hits (six home runs), 12 RBI and a 1.351 OPS in 16 September games. It's the first time all season that he's looked like the most dangerous man in the game.
But we've seen this from the Tigers before and know how this story ends—without a World Series ring on anyone's finger.
There's little reason to believe that this year's version is going to find different results.
Updated Odds: 15-to-1
Kansas City Royals
2 of 9
Current Record: 83-68, top AL Wild Card
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 14-to-1
Should Kansas City wind up as one of the two wild-card teams in the AL, "Big Game" James Shields will be ready to go on normal rest. But according to Shields, it really doesn't matter who takes the ball from manager Ned Yost at this point.
"These guys know how to win big baseball games now and what it takes to win games all the way to the end," he told The Topeka Capital-Journal's Kevin Haskin. "We've just got to stick to our process, stick to what we’re doing and have fun with it."
To get to the end—and to end the franchise's 29-year absence from the postseason—the Royals will have to get by Detroit, the team they trail by a half-game in a heated battle for the AL Central and their guests at Kauffman Stadium this weekend.
"You've got to knock off the champion to take their crown," oft-maligned Royals designated hitter Billy Butler told The Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough. "They’re not going to give it to us. We've got to take it from them."
Detroit isn't the only obstacle remaining in the Royals' path to the playoffs, however. Four games in Cleveland—including the final half-inning of a suspended game between the Royals and Indians from Aug. 31 that Kansas City is losing 4-2—follow the Tigers series before the team finishes up against the White Sox in Chicago.
Should the Royals be able to navigate that obstacle course and reach the postseason, they'd likely face either the Oakland A's in the Wild Card Game or Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS. Kansas City owns winning records against both clubs this season, setting up a potential meeting against either Detroit or Los Angeles in the ALCS.
Updated Odds: 16-to-1
Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 9
Current Record: 87-66, 2.5-game lead in NL West
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 11-to-2
As JP Hoornstra of the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin notes, major league managers are not immune to having the injury bug blow up things that were more than a month in the making:
"In August, (Dodgers manager Don) Mattingly lined up the starting rotation so that Ryu, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw would pitch every game of the Dodgers’ two September series against the San Francisco Giants, the second-place team in the National League West.
When Ryu was diagnosed with inflammation in his left shoulder after a poor outing last Friday in San Francisco, the best-laid plan went to waste.
"
Pushing veteran Dan Haren's next start back a day would seem to make the most sense, considering that the Dodgers can't afford to drop any of their remaining three games against San Francisco, which is still nipping at their heels for the division lead.
But should the Giants overtake the Dodgers, forcing Los Angeles into a one-game series for its playoff lives, things have a way of working themselves out. For the best pitcher on the planet, Clayton Kershaw, would be in line to start the Wild Card Game.
Hanley Ramirez is also banged up (again), this time dealing with a sore elbow, and he may need to be rested over the season's final few games to keep him fresh for the postseason.
If the Dodgers can't get healthy—quickly—the odds of them being able to make a deep playoff run go from great to mediocre at best.
Updated Odds: 15-to-1
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Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 9
Current Record: 79-74, 3.5 games back in NL Wild Card
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 18-to-1
In no way, shape or form do I consider the Milwaukee Brewers to be an actual contender at this point, but that they are still within striking distance of a wild-card berth dictates their inclusion.
The Brewers don't hit, have a rotation that, outside of Mike Fiers and Wily Peralta, hasn't been close to decent in weeks and haven't posted a winning month since June. The team's schedule is formidable, with trips to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati on tap before returning to Miller Park to take on the upstart Chicago Cubs.
It's going to take some divine intervention for the Brewers to make the playoffs, much less make a deep run to a World Series crown. Should the planets align and the Brew Crew somehow get past Pittsburgh for the final wild-card spot, the team would have to choose between Fiers and Kyle Lohse as its starter in the Wild Card Game.
Chances are, however, that manager Ron Roenicke won't have to make that decision.
Updated Odds: 50-to-1
Oakland Athletics
5 of 9
Current Record: 83-61, second place in AL Wild Card
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 7-to-1
Given that the team has dropped 10 of its last 15 games, winning the World Series should be the last thing on anyone's mind in Oakland. Making the playoffs is going to be difficult enough.
Case in point: The A's just got swept by a team that is 32 games below .500, the Texas Rangers (60-92).
Texas' dominance makes it downright impossible to have any faith in the A's getting on a roll, despite the fact that only three of the team's final 10 games come against a team with a winning record, the AL West champion Los Angeles Angels.
Those are the same Angels that swept the A's in four games at the end of August, outscoring them 18-4.
Oakland's lack of consistent offense since early August has been well-documented, but it goes far beyond the Yoenis Cespedes trade. Consider the drop in production from key members of the lineup since the All-Star break:
| Josh Donaldson | .766 | .855 | 118 | 145 |
| Brandon Moss | .878 | .592 | 148 | 75 |
| Derek Norris | .879 | .632 | 154 | 82 |
| Stephen Vogt | .920 | .729 | 164 | 105 |
| Coco Crisp | .835 | .536 | 141 | 53 |
| John Jaso | .800 | .675 | 130 | 92 |
Those are some pretty precipitous drops in production right there. According to John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group, Jaso may not play again this season due to issues stemming from a concussion, only adding to the team's issues at the plate.
Still, there is some good news.
Should the A's find their way to the Wild Card Game, the rotation is lined up so that staff ace Jon Lester would take the ball on six days rest. When Lester has that much time to recharge, he's been phenomenal, going 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 36.2 innings over five starts.
But there's no guarantee that the offense will be able to support him. Even if it does, asking the A's to take down the Angels in a five-game ALDS is going to be an incredibly difficult thing for them to accomplish.
What once seemed like a sure thing—the A's playing in the Fall Classic—now seems like nothing more than a dream.
Updated Odds: 25-to-1
Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 9
Current Record: 82-70, Second NL Wild Card, 2.5 GB in NL Central
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 33-to-1
With a nearly four-game lead over Milwaukee for the Senior Circuit's final wild-card berth, Pittsburgh can essentially knock the Brewers out of the race by winning one of its three remaining games against Milwaukee.
Catching St. Louis in the division might be a more difficult task, as the Pirates play only three of their last 10 games against a team with a losing record—the Cincinnati Reds. It's worth noting, however, that the Reds have emerged victorious in 10 of the 16 games in which they've played the Bucs.
That said, the Pirates have been clicking on all cylinders of late, getting timely hitting from nearly the entire lineup and quality outings on the mound. It's hard to see them falling out of the playoff picture at this point.
But unless they can clinch a playoff spot early and skip Francisco Liriano or Gerrit Cole over the season's final weekend, the Pirates would be faced with starting either Jeff Locke or Edinson Volquez in the Wild Card Game. While both have been solid, having either one on the mound in a must-win situation is far from ideal.
Last season, anyone who followed the Pirates got the feeling that they were a team of destiny—that there was no way they weren't going to make the playoffs and win the Wild Card Game. For what it's worth, that feeling isn't nearly as prevalent this time around.
Updated Odds: 20-to-1
San Francisco Giants
7 of 9
Current Record: 84-68, First NL Wild Card, 2.5 GB in NL West
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 16-to-1
With a two-game lead over Pittsburgh and nearly a four-game lead over Milwaukee for the top wild-card spot in the National League, San Francisco looks like a lock to be playing meaningful baseball in October.
Whether the Giants will be playing in the Wild Card Game or not, however, won't be determined until next week, when they travel to Dodger Stadium for a three-game series against first-place Los Angeles in a division-deciding battle.
San Francisco won the division—and the World Series—in both 2010 and 2012, so history would dictate that it will find a way to get past the Dodgers. But the Giants' .500 record against their remaining opponents, the Dodgers (8-8) and San Diego (6-6), makes that anything but a certainty.
If the Giants can get to the season's final game having already clinched a playoff berth, skipper Bruce Bochy will be able to skip Madison Bumgarner in the rotation, keeping his ace rested for the Wild Card Game. If the Giants are faced with a must-win scenario, veteran Tim Hudson would be in line for the Wild Card Game start.
Perhaps more important to the Giants' chances of clinching a third World Series crown in five years is the team's offense. Since the All-Star break, only Pittsburgh (plus-116 wRC+) has been more productive than San Francisco (plus-111 wRC+).
The Giants bats must keep this up—especially shortstop Brandon Crawford, a career .246 hitter who, inexplicably, has posted a plus-219 wRC+ in September, seventh in baseball among players with at least 40 plate appearances.
Expecting some regression at the plate—from Crawford especially—keeps me from improving San Francisco's odds to win it all.
Updated Odds: 16-to-1
Seattle Mariners
8 of 9
Current Record: 82-70, 1 GB for AL Wild Card
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 25-to-1
If Seattle hopes to have its ace, Felix Hernandez, on the mound in the Wild Card Game, the Mariners had better reverse course and get hot in a hurry.
As ESPN's David Schoenfield noted before the team's game against Los Angeles on Sept. 18, one injury has drastically changed the way the rotation lines up:
"The Mariners have no off days the rest of the season and their rotation was also thrown a curve when Roenis Elias left Tuesday's game with elbow stiffness.
"
Felix Hernandez starts on Thursday, which means he would pitch again on Tuesday and then the final Sunday of the season. If they've clinched a playoff spot, obviously they hold Felix back for the wild-card game. If not -- a distinct possibility since they have to make up ground --Chris Young follows Hernandez in the rotation, followed by Hisashi Iwakuma.
So if the Mariners go down to the wire and have to pitch Felix on Sunday, it would be: Felix in the regular-season finale, Young in a potential tiebreaker game and then Iwakuma (or Young) in the wild-card game.
While both Iwakuma and Young have been fantastic, neither one is Hernandez.
Seattle, which has lost six of its last 10 games, faces some stiff competition the rest of the way. The team goes from Houston to Toronto back to Seattle in a 10-day span, taking on the Angels in a three-game series to end the season.
That much travel in such a short period of time, especially this late in the season, could prove to be detrimental to the team's ability to succeed on the field. While the Angels will likely be resting many of their regulars in that final series, the Mariners can't take anything for granted.
Seattle's offense has been anything but potent down the stretch, ranking 27th in batting average (.214), 24th in OPS (.630) and 15th in runs scored (60) over the season's final month.
A lack of production at plate, coupled with a lack of King Felix in the Wild Card Game, makes a deep playoff run by the Mariners, much less the first World Series appearance in franchise history, seem unlikely.
Updated Odds: 25-to-1
St. Louis Cardinals
9 of 9
Current Record: 85-68, 2.5-game lead in NL Central
Odds of Winning World Series as of Sept. 1: 10-to-1
Owners of the National League's best September record (12-5), it's hard to imagine the St. Louis Cardinals getting any hotter than they already are. With games remaining against Cincinnati, Chicago and Arizona, however, it's entirely possible that the Cardinals will be on fire heading into the playoffs.
The odds-on favorite to take the NL Central crown at this point—St. Louis has an easier remaining schedule than Pittsburgh—lining the rotation up for a potential wild-card contest isn't something that manager Mike Matheny figures to be concerned with.
If the Cardinals somehow lose their grip on the division and wind up in the Wild Card Game on Oct. 1, it would line up with Michael Wacha's next start on regular rest. They could opt for John Lackey on extended rest instead, especially since Lackey has pitched to a 2.33 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in four starts when he's had at least six days off.
The potential playoff matchups for the Cardinals are scintillating, whether it be a rematch of last year's NLCS against Los Angeles or a rematch of the 2012 NLDS against Washington. Both would be highly competitive series and must-see baseball.
Getting ahead of ourselves, a World Series against Kansas City, while not thrilling on a national level, would be phenomenal for the baseball fans that can appreciate an in-state rivalry. What about a Fall Classic against the Angels, one that sees St. Louis' former favorite son, Albert Pujols, return as the enemy?
The possibilities are mouthwatering, and the Cardinals have as good a shot as any team in the National League to make one of them a reality.
Updated Odds: 10-to-1
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