Pivotal Factors That Will Decide Champions League Group E
The Champions League group stage gets underway this week, as 32 teams set off (or continue) on the long road toward next June's final in Berlin.
The usual suspects will have strong ambitions of following in Real Madrid's footsteps and becoming champions of Europe, but there are bound to be a number of surprises and upsets along the way. There always are.
First things first, the 32 teams in the competition need to be whittled down to 16, as the top two from each of the eight groups bid to get into the knockout stages. Group E contains the following teams:
- CSKA Moscow
- Bayern Munich
- Manchester City
- AS Roma
Only two can progress. Click on for some of the pivotal factors that could decide which two sides are left standing at the end of this phase.
Will Xabi Alonso (More Than) Replace Toni Kroos?
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It is worth remembering just how badly Bayern Munich's Champions League campaign ended last season—as they were absolutely eviscerated at the hands of Real Madrid in the semi-finals of the competition.
In the summer they then lost Toni Kroos to the Spaniards, a player who had been so impressive with his ability to dictate matches in the build-up to that fateful semi-final.
Kroos seemingly only pushed the balance further in Real's favour—at least until Xabi Alonso ended up making the journey the other way later the same summer.
Alonso has been competent so far in Bayern colours, but it is his absence from Real's starting XI that has really exposed his value to whichever team he represents. Real's counter-attacking style was devastating last season with Alonso there to provide some security; without him this season the European champions have looked very shaky, even with Toni Kroos.
It remains to be seen exactly what qualities Alonso brings to his new side—but if he can fill the void left by Kroos then the Germans will be confident in their chances in what is a very tough group.
How Will Injuries Affect Manchester City?
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Manchester City famously were only allowed to register a 21-man squad for this season's Champions League, as punishment for their recent Financial Fair Play failures. On paper the punishment is not a huge one—clubs rarely use all 25 players in their squads anyway—but it could become a significant problem if injuries hit Manuel Pellegrini in key areas.
Drawn in a group with two fine, fine sides (not for the first time in their Champions League experiences), Pellegrini will be desperate that a problem does not befall either Edin Dzeko or Sergio Aguero, for example, let alone Yaya Toure or Vincent Kompany.
Forced to work within some constraints, City's chances will be dealt a blow if that 21-man squad gets reduced further by injuries or suspensions.
Can Roma Cope with the Addition of European Commitments?
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Part of Roma's success last season—especially the phenomenal start to their Serie A campaign—was perhaps down to the lack of European involvement, with Rudi Garcia's side able to concentrate solely on the domestic job in hand.
Well, now the Giallorossi are back in the Champions League, and it will be interesting to see how that extra commitment affects the overall standard of their performances.
European engagements generally mean a bigger squad is needed but, while Roma have added talent in the summer, they remain a relatively small, tight-knit group.
They have the ability to cause both Bayern and Manchester City plenty of problems, but equally the twin demands of building a domestic title challenge and trying to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League could see them struggle to adequately do either.
They are perhaps the best- and worst-case scenarios—where Garcia's men end on that spectrum may define how the group pans out.
Did CSKA Moscow Learn Anything from Last Season?
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Manchester City and Bayern Munich may be meeting each other once again, but it is worth noting that CSKA Moscow were also in that group 12 months ago. The Russians could not make an impact, however, and with Roma effectively replacing Viktoria Plzen this time around, their task is now even harder.
CSKA travelled poorly last season—losing all three of their games—and failed to take advantage of the fact opponents had to travel so far to meet them on their own patch, as they succumbed to both Bayern and Manchester City.
There should be a bit of familiarity on both sides after last season, but CSKA will have to hope they have learned more if they are to prolong their European adventure in any meaningful way.
Have Manchester City Finally Shrugged off Their Inferiority Complex?
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Since breaking into the Champions League firmament in recent seasons, City have been greeted with a series of very tough groups (originally due to their poor co-efficient score, but more recently down to bad luck). But even that hasn't solely explained their poor record in the competition, with last season the first time they had reached the knockout stages.
City have often seemed to have an inferiority complex when playing some of the bigger sides in Europe, not realising their ability to compete with anyone until it was too late.
Even last season that appeared to be the case at times—City losing meekly at home to Bayern before realising in the return group fixture that they had no reason to fear the Germans, and then repeating the mistake against Barcelona in the knockout stages.
The Spanish side undoubtedly deserve respect, but City's deference at the Etihad Stadium left them too much to do at the Nou Camp, even as they realised they actually could beat Lionel Messi et al.
It will be instructive to see if Manuel Pellegrini's side show any hesitancy in their dealings with Bayern this time around.
Will Pep Guardiola Tinker Too Much?
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Bayern Munich's Champions League campaign last season ended in disaster, and this time Pep Guardiola returns with even more options at his disposal. Toni Kroos has gone, but Xabi Alonso is now in midfield, with Robert Lewandowski offering an even more clinical option in the final third.
The group contains three strong sides, but Bayern are marginally the class of the bunch and should qualify for the last 16.
Guardiola loves meticulous preparation before games and micro-management during them—often to the benefit of his team but occasionally to their confusion. Any mistakes in his selection or tactics could erode the advantage in sheer talent that the German side arguably have.
If he over-complicates things for Bayern, or outwits himself with some of his tactical ideas, then Roma and Manchester City could take advantage just as Real Madrid did.
