NFL Week 2 Picks: Last-Minute Advice on Vegas Odds and Spreads

While we are still far away from must-win territory this NFL season, it feels like a number of teams we expected to compete for a playoff spot need to right the ship in a hurry if they want to live up to those expectations. 

After all, while it's easy to see a team get hot at the end of the season to sneak into the postseason, it's much nicer when they have some breathing room later in the year. Players wear down over the course of a long season, so being put in must-win situations in December is adding extra pressure. 

Whatever is going to happen with all 32 teams, the slate of games in Week 2 have their share of drama and intrigue. It's also a chance for the oddsmakers in Las Vegas to show us what they think of teams after the first week by setting new betting lines based on that first week. 

Here are Week 2 predictions against the spread and some last-minute advice to follow:

Matchup	Spread	Prediction
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills	Pick 'Em	Dolphins, 23-20
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-2.5)	Panthers, 24-20
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals (-5.5)	Falcons, 31-28
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns	Saints (-7)	Saints, 27-21
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings	Patriots (-7)	Patriots, 31-17
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants	Cardinals (-1)	Cardinals, 28-17
Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans	Titans (-3)	Titans, 23-16
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington	Washington (-7)	Jaguars, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers	Seahawks (-5.5)	Chargers, 24-21
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers (-5.5)	Buccaneers, 24-10
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos	Broncos (-12.5)	Broncos, 37-17
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers	Packers (-8.5)	Packers, 31-17
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders	Texans (-2.5)	Raiders, 20-17
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers	49ers (-7.5)	49ers, 28-24
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts	Colts (-3)	Colts, 31-27

Betting Advice

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

The three games that we have our eye on, based on the betting line, are Jacksonville-Washington, Seattle-San Diego and Kansas City-Denver. Let's tackle them one by one, starting with the Chiefs vs. Broncos. 

It's amazing to see how far the Chiefs have fallen in such a short amount of time. If you recall, last November, Andy Reid's team was 9-0 and coming off a bye heading into a game against Denver. A 27-17 loss set the tone for what has been a long fall from grace. 

The Chiefs have lost seven of their last nine games if you include the postseason against Indianapolis and Week 1 against Tennessee. Adding injury to the matter, Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito are out for the year after suffering the same injury versus the Titans, via NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

Making matters worse is that Reid let Jamaal Charles, his best offensive weapon, have seven carries in Week 1. When you add all of it up, is there any wonder why the Broncos are favored by 12.5 points?

As far as the odds go, Kansas City is just 3-6 in its last nine games against the spread. Denver hasn't fared much better as a home favorite lately, going 1-4 in that category over the last five games. 

Even in a division game where the two teams know each other so well, if Alex Smith is going to be turning the ball over like he did in Week 1, this game will be over before Peyton Manning breaks a sweat. Take the Broncos and the points, without hesitation. 

Moving to the first game we mentioned, Jacksonville at Washington, it's certainly not a marquee game in terms of expectations for the teams. However, it's a fascinating one because the Jaguars showed real progress in the first half against Philadelphia last week before remembering they are the Jaguars. 

Jacksonville's defense was all over Eagles quarterback Nick Foles in the first half, forcing him to make nearly as many turnovers in 30 minutes as he did in 13 games last year, via SportsCenter:

Looking at what Washington did in Houston last week, even with Jadeveon Clowney leaving the game early due to a knee injury, why is this team getting favored by a touchdown?

The Jaguars may not have a dominant defensive lineman like J.J. Watt—no one outside of Houston does—but that entire unit played well for 30 minutes against a team that's supposed to have one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

We are still waiting to see the Robert Griffin III who dominated the NFL as a rookie, but as Sally Jenkins of The Washington Post asked, how much longer can we wait for that guy to show up?

"

Bottom line, they are hamstrung by a quarterback who inarguably has greatness in him, but doesn’t yet have great field awareness. At the start of Griffin’s third season, it’s a disappointing fact that his coaches are still taking things out of the game plan to accommodate him, rather than putting things in. They are still talking about “building blocks.”

"

Jacksonville at least had a pulse on offense, with Allen Hurns looking like DeSean Jackson with more than 100 yards and two touchdowns in the first half of Week 1. Jackson and Pierre Garcon combined for 18 catches against Houston, but all of them were so short that their average yards per reception was 7.7. 

The betting trends for these teams certainly aren't pretty, though the Jaguars are at least playing things closer than the oddsmakers think with a 4-2 mark against the spread in their last six road games. Washington, meanwhile, is a paltry 2-7 in its last nine games against the spread. 

If you don't feel confident taking the Jaguars for the straight-up win, at least take them getting seven points. 

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Finally, the west-coast battle between Seattle and San Diego has all the makings of a trap game. The Seahawks looked like the defending Super Bowl champions 10 days ago against Green Bay, while the Chargers once again blew a fourth-quarter lead and couldn't score late against Arizona. 

However, if there's a spot where we know Seattle is vulnerable, it's on the road. Last year, for instance, the Seahawks needed a fourth-quarter rally—and help from Matt Schaub's case of pick-six-itis—to defeat Houston and held off Carolina in a 12-7 defensive slugfest to win. 

In addition to those games, two of Seattle's three losses last year were on the road (Indianapolis, San Francisco). The Seahawks are not as great away from home, putting the Chargers in a good spot to pull off an upset. 

There is a formula for beating Seattle that was pointed out by Jim Russell of 1360 Fox Sports Radio in San Diego:

The Chargers do have a quality rushing attack with Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown. You're not going to get past Seattle's secondary when it is expecting the pass, so controlling the clock and using play-action is the best way to attack Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. 

Trends for these teams make it hard to discern which way the wind will blow. The Seahawks are 9-2 in their last 11 games against the spread and 11-2 in their last 13 road games against the spread. San Diego is 5-2 straight up in its last seven home games. 

If there are spots where Seattle is going to slip up this season, San Diego certainly makes sense as one of them. 

Note: All spreads and trend information via Oddsshark

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.