Pivotal Factors That Will Decide Champions League Group A
The Champions League group stage gets underway this week, as 32 teams set off (or continue) on the long road toward next June's final in Berlin.
The usual suspects will have strong ambitions of following in Real Madrid's footsteps and becoming champions of Europe, but there are bound to be a number of surprises and upsets along the way—there always are.
First things first, the 32 teams in the competition need to be whittled down to 16, as the top two from each of the eight groups progressing into the knockout stages. Group A contains the following teams:
- Atletico Madrid
- Juventus
- Malmo
- Olympiacos
Click on for some of the pivotal factors that could decide which two sides are left standing at the end of this phase.
Can Mario Mandzukic Outscore Juventus' More Varied Attack?
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It is fairly clear that, on paper at least, Atletico Madrid and Juventus are the two teams that should progress from Group A. Olympiacos may have reached the knockout stages of the competition last season, but they possess a very different squad this time around and will do well to repeat that feat against stronger group-stage opposition.
When it comes to deciding the group, then, it will depend on how well the presumptive favourites deal with the two supposed weaker sides.
The benefits of having a prolific goalscorer do not need stating, but they can be especially helpful in dealing with beatable opponents with the minimum of fuss—witness the way Zlatan Ibrahimovic ripped through lesser sides as Paris Saint-Germain stormed to the quarter-finals of the competition last season.
Atletico have Mario Mandzukic to try and play that Ibrahimovic role for them, with a lot of onus on him to convert chances for Diego Simeone's side. Juventus have more options—Carlos Tevez, Fernando Llorente, Alvaro Morata and even Kingsley Coman—but perhaps not one they can rely on to the same extent as Mandzukic.
The focus on the few against the use of the many—which of these approaches provides more goals could define the group.
Can Olympiacos Repeat Their Strong Home Form?
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After opening with a defeat to PSG in Piraeus in last season's Champions League group stages, Olympiacos beat both Benfica and Anderlecht to squeeze to a surprise knockout stage qualification. They were then drawn against Manchester United, a side they famously beat (2-0) at home before going down in the second leg.
The Greeks have a very different side this time around, but their home form will once again be crucial in defining whether they can reach the last 16 once again. If they can pick up some scalps in front of their home fans, they may just have a small opportunity of providing a real upset.
Can Malmo Catch Juventus Cold?
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For Swedish champions Malmo, this group looks a thankless task; while completing a "Zlatan Ibrahimovic full house" in Group F may have been an even harder prospect, it would at least have come with a few glamour ties and an emotional homecoming.
In many ways, Malmo's presence in the group stage is a surprise; they stunned the well-backed Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg in the play-off round. Part of that surprise was the fact that the Swedish side are already well into their domestic season and were perhaps much closer to full fitness than their opponents.
That might be the key to any success they might have in this difficult group. With most of the other sides still building to peak fitness, the potential is there for Malmo to outwork their opponents in the early games—particularly the opener against Juventus and the second game against Olympiacos.
Of course, fatigue from a long campaign (the Swedish season ends in November) is likely to set in as Matchdays 5 and 6 approach, perhaps eroding any initial advantage they have. The experienced Age Hareide will need his side to hit the ground running if they want to make any impact.
Will Massimiliano Allegri Fare Better in Europe Than Antonio Conte?
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Antonio Conte was an extremely successful Juventus manager, but his achievements were pretty much exclusive to domestic competitions. When it came to Europe, Conte's sides arguably underachieved.
That was the case last season, when the Turin club were edged out by Galatasaray—a side that few would really agree were their equal—for second place behind Real Madrid in a group that also contained FC Copenhagen. It was a missed opportunity for Conte and his men.
Conte left the club in the summer, being replaced by Max Allegri. The ex-AC Milan head coach does not have as solid a reputation as Conte, but it will be interesting to see if his methods better translate to continental competition.
Perhaps Italian sides, used to a slower tempo and more tactical approach to the game than many of their opponents in the Champions League, have proven easier for opponents to get at and unsettle in recent times. This is a group Juve should easily escape from, but Allegri will have to learn some lessons from the recent past in order to avoid any slip-ups.
Will Miguel Moya—or Jan Oblak—Prove a Decent Thibaut Courtois Replacement?
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It hardly needs saying that Atletico Madrid, after last season's run to the final, enter this campaign with a very different squad at their disposal. One position they have changed is in goal, where Miguel Moya has replaced the departed Thibaut Courtois as the No. 1, with £12 million summer signing Jan Oblak his strong competition.
Courtois was a cornerstone of Atletico's approach last season; an assured presence and brilliant shot-stopper who gave an already brutal defence an extra layer of insurance. Losing him would have been a blow to any team, and it creates a tough act to follow for any successor.
That man appears to be Moya, initially at least, although Oblak, who spent last season jostling for the No. 1 spot at Europa League finalists Benfica, will fancy his chances of earning his shot over time.
Atletico should progress without either man having to be at his very best. Oblak was involved in Benfica's surprise failed Champions League campaign 12 months ago, and he will be hoping to avoid a similar experience this time around.
Can Paul Pogba and Arturo Vidal Win the Midfield Battle?
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Both were linked with moves away from Juventus in the summer, but the transfer window has now shut until January and Paul Pogba and Arturo Vidal both remain Serie A players. As a result, they will provide the foundation for their side's Champions League push.
If Group A ultimately comes down to a head-to-head battle between the Italians and Atletico Madrid for top spot, then the midfield battle in the two games involving both sides will prove imperative. Pogba and Vidal have recently been lauded as among the very best in their position in the world, but the likes of Koke, Gabi and Tiago are no slouches.
