Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Buffalo swept the season series from Miami last year and has taken three of the last four meetings in the rivalry, going 3-1 against the spread.

Both teams will be trying to back up big season-opening victories when they meet at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

One team will be a phony 2-0 and primed for a loss in Week 3.

Point Spread: This game opened as a pick 'em, and it remained at even odds through Thursday; the total was 42.5, per sportsbooks tracked by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 18.9-17.1 Miami

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins opened their season with an emotional 33-20 victory at home over hated New England, winning straight-up as four-point home dogs. Miami trailed at halftime 20-10 but shut out the Patriots in the second half while putting up 23 points of its own.

With help from newcomer Knowshon Moreno, the 'Fins outrushed New England 191-89 while the defense held Tom Brady to 249 passing yards on 56 throws. Not only did the Dolphins score 33 points Sunday, they also had to settle for three short field goals.

They could have put up 40 on the Pats.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills began this season by pulling the biggest point-spread upset of opening weekend, a 23-20 overtime victory at Chicago, winning outright as seven-point road dogs.

Buffalo led early 17-7, allowed the Bears to forge a 20-20 tie late but eventually won on Dan Carpenter's third field goal of the game. Buffalo outrushed Chicago 193-86 and won the turnover battle 3-1.

The final scoring drive summed up the day for the Bills offense; C.J. Spiller ran twice for 14 yards, EJ Manuel hit Mike Williams for a 20-yard gain, and Fred Jackson carried it twice to get to the Chicago 1-yard line, setting up the game-winning kick.

Smart Pick

The team that wins the battle of the ground game will have the better chance of winning this contest, and the winner of this contest will cover this spread.

And with its two-headed rushing attack (three-headed last week with 60 yards from Anthony Dixon) and improvement on defense, Buffalo looks like it's got the advantage.

So the pick here is with the Bills at home to build on their 7-3 ATS run in divisional play, perhaps without having to give up any points.

Trends

• Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
• The total has gone under in six of Buffalo's last eight games when playing Miami.
• Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC East opponents.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.