
College Football Picks Week 3: Odds and Spread Predictions for Top 25 Teams
College football spreads can be akin to playing the lottery.
Unlike their relatively grounded professional counterparts, collegiate spreads are video game-esque in their over-the-top numbers. Oregon by 43? Sure, roll the dice, but who knows when a Wyoming will grab a garbage-time touchdown and ruin the collective lives of bettors.
Week 3 is no different, and it's worse than the first two weeks of the season, as there is just one contest between ranked teams. Most other games figure to be lopsided affairs before most teams get into the infancy of conference play.
Here is a look at the entire slate of odds for the Top 25 this week:
| 1 | Florida State Seminoles (38) | -- | -- | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks (16) | Wyoming | ORE -43 | ORE, 50-10 |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide (1) | Southern Miss | ALA -49 | ALA, 58-20 |
| 4 | Oklahoma Sooners (2) | Tennessee | OU -21 | OU, 42-23 |
| 5 | Auburn Tigers | -- | -- | -- |
| 6 | Georgia Bulldogs (1) | at No. 24 South Carolina | UGA -3 | UGA, 45-35 |
| 7 | Texas A&M Aggies (2) | Rice | A&M -30 | TAM, 63-7 |
| 8 | Baylor Bears | at Buffalo | BAY -27 | BAY, 52-3 |
| 9 | USC Trojans | at Boston College | USC -20 | USC, 38-21 |
| 10 | LSU Tigers | Louisiana-Monroe | LSU -28 | LSU, 46-16 |
| 11 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Purdue | ND -29.5 | ND, 35-28 |
| 12 | UCLA Bruins | at Texas | UCLA -6 | UCLA, 34-20 |
| 13 | Michigan State Spartans | -- | -- | -- |
| 14 | Mississippi Rebels | Louisiana-Lafayette | -- | MISS, 42-15 |
| 15 | Stanford Cardinal | Army | SU -27.5 | SU, 38-20 |
| 16 | Arizona State Sun Devils | at Colorado | ASU -13.5 | ASU, 24-13 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech Hokies | East Carolina | VT -11.5 | VT, 28-21 |
| 18 | Wisconsin Badgers | -- | -- | -- |
| 19 | Kansas State Wildcats | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 | Missouri Tigers | Central Florida | MIZZ -9 | MIZZ, 42-23 |
| 21 | Louisville Cardinals | at Virginia | LU -10 | LU, 30-24 |
| 21 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Kent State | OSU -26.5 | OSU, 31-23 |
| 23 | Clemson Tigers | -- | -- | -- |
| 25 | BYU Cougars | Houston | BYU -14 | BYU, 45-17 |
Note: All odds, updated as of 8 p.m. on Sept. 11, are courtesy of Odds Shark. AP poll via The Associated Press.
Let's start with that Oregon contest, when the Ducks welcome the 2-0 Cowboys to town. Sure, the Ducks have Marcus Mariota under center, who seems better than ever, but how long are the starters going to play? Can Oregon's backups post enough points to cover against a team that held its first two opponents (Montana and Air Force) to 13 points or less?
The same question applies to Alabama when it encounters an easy contest against Southern Miss. The spread is huge, and rightfully so, but Nick Saban is sure to rotate the duo of Blake Sims and Jacob Coker again under center.
Last time that happened, the Crimson Tide won 41-0 over Florida Atlantic, but Coker came in and only produced one score through the air.
That Oklahoma-Tennessee spread seems one to avoid at all costs. Butch Jones and the Volunteers are young, sure, but the defense is fast and the team's first two wins have been blowouts.
Even Oklahoma's Bob Stoops, who is faced with another critical SEC matchup, is well aware of the defensive speed Tennessee brings to the table that could make for a difficult test.
“We recognize it as another big challenge, an exciting challenge,” Stoops said, per ESPNDallas.com's Jake Trotter. “I know they’ve recruited really strong in the last couple of years. When you watch them on tape, you see a lot of speed running around, you see a lot of big guys. They’ve really got a great-looking team.”
It should go without saying, then, that the massive battle between Georgia and South Carolina—easily the week's top contest—is one to ignore due to the volatile nature of both teams.
Believe it or not, this logic also applies to the Fighting Irish this week. The spread against Purdue is gargantuan, as expected, but the Boilermakers have burned bettors for years in the battle for the Shillelagh Trophy.
In 2013, a one-win Purdue team held the lead going into the fourth quarter against Notre Dame before losing. The year before that, the Boilermakers almost spoiled the Fighting Irish's perfect regular season before losing late via a field goal. Coach Brian Kelly understands the upset potential best of all, as captured by UND.com:
"If you watch the film and turn it on you really see two different teams. Last year they had a game that went right down to the end against Indiana State, it was 20 17. The week before they got blown out against Cincinnati, and then they play us to obviously a tight ball game. It's just an in state rival. Just throw out all of what happened before, and they just played very, very well with a great deal of enthusiasm and emotion, and we're going to have to meet and exceed that.
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That Texas A&M line, though? Go ahead and bet the farm, Johnny Manziel or not. Kenny Hill is the new superstar under center, and he led the offense to 52 points against South Carolina and another 73 against Lamar. His personal stat line through two games? A whopping 794 passing yards and seven scores.
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer summed up the general consensus about Hill best:
A little further down the list, Stanford by almost 30 points seems a tad ridiculous for a team that is known each year for its defense. The Cardinal did post 45 against UC Davis to start the season, but Army is a better team that sits at 1-0 after posting 47 points of its own to start the year.
That Ohio State line is a bit disconcerting, too. A 34-17 win over Navy at the end of August was concerning, as was the highly publicized 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech.
Now the Buckeyes are supposed to be trusted to blow away Kent State with J.T. Barrett under center, who has thrown three touchdowns to four interceptions in place of Braxton Miller? Tread lightly there, folks.
As bettors can see, the Top 25 slate this week resembles something of a minefield. There is coin to be made, but only through a common-sense approach. Massive lines can breed massive losses, so dig deep for answers before hitting "place bet."
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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