Fantasy Baseball 2014: 10 Last-Minute Tips to Win Your Championship Round
You survived the fantasy baseball season and are now one step closer to a championship after conquering the opening playoff match.
It's the middle of September, and you're not perusing the fantasy football section. Instead, either a semifinal or final showdown awaits your fake baseball squad on the diamond. Congratulations for getting this far.
Of course, the long journey to the championship means little if the final chapter ends poorly. If anything, facing the gauntlet only to fall short at the final stage hurts more than calling it a day in August.
These final two weeks determine whether these last six months were well-spent. Don't get bored now. It's human nature to get tired of regularly setting a lineup, but your team needs your undivided attention more than ever.
Maybe your managerial style is rolling with your marquee players through thick and thin, keeping your roster consistent and trusting your preseason intuition. If it got you this far, great, but now isn't the time to hold back. A strikeout or home run can make the difference between triumph and failure, so every minuscule detail matters.
Most managers didn't accidentally stumble into the championship, so chances are most people know what they're doing. But just in case anyone wants a helping hand, here's a guide to winning the season's final challenge.
Every Day Counts
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If the championship matchup starts Monday, there are two weeks to defeat your opponent. Other owners will have to top one more foe this week before advancing to a winner-take-all clash during the final week.
Either way, there's a compact, finite window that gives the final survivors a small margin of error. Whether seven or 14 days decide who brings home the hardware, you can't take a day off and hope to recover.
Everyone has those days during the season when they forget teams are playing afternoon games, and it just so happens Corey Kluber is firing a gem on their bench. The best of us occasionally let less important things like work, school, friends and family interfere with the big picture.
Don't let it happen these two weeks. If your spouse insists on actually spending time together—I know, the horror—find the time to cover yourself and handle each day's lineup in one sitting. Hardly ideal considering last-minute injuries, scheduling changes and routine days off, but it beats the alternative.
Surely you've figured out a routine that works during the season, but are your normal habits enough with first place at stake? If you just make sure your probable pitchers are active and nobody on a team with a rest day frequents the lineup, consider these steps to maximize your lineups.
Play the Pitching Mathcups
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You groan at that annoying manager who disposes of starting pitchers like they're toothpicks throughout the season, constantly adding a hurler for one start before booting him right back to the waiver wire. Where does anyone find the time?
Streaming starting pitchers is a risky endeavor that can win or cost you the week. Not as daring as other managers, I only recommend the strategy when all the cards fall neatly in line. Such an opportunity presents itself for two starters at the bottom of the San Francisco Giants' rotation.
Yusmeiro Petit faces the San Diego Padres at Petco Park this Saturday. The perfect combination of criminally underrated pitcher and ideal matchup make him a must-start.
The 29-year-old has notched a 2.66 FIP with 110 strikeouts and 18 walks through 99.1 innings. On Tuesday, he surrendered just four hits and one run in a complete game over the Arizona Diamondbacks during which he compiled nine strikeouts.
San Diego ranks last in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Petco Park is a notorious pitcher's haven that has curtailed any semblance of an offense for the Friars. This contains every element of the perfect streamer.
Before getting bombed at Coors Field to begin September, Ryan Vogelsong posted a 2.58 ERA through six August starts. He'll also get to visit Petco, but his first matchup of the week is just as appetizing.
Since the All-Star break, the Arizona Diamondbacks rank 28th in OPS and 29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Without Paul Goldschmidt, they have nothing left but gritty, subpar position players whom Vogelsong can exploit. Two golden matchups make the veteran this week's premier two-start pitcher on the wavier wire.
Look at Lefty/Righty Splits
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Now that you've effectively handicapped the pitching matchups, take a close look at the schedule to see which hitters benefit from a lefty- or righty-loaded slate.
The Oakland Athletics are fond of platooning, and five of their six games come against right-handed pitchers. A further look into the names—Nick Tepesch, Nick Martinez, David Buchanan, Jerome Williams and A.J. Burnett—make Oakland's left-handed bats worth pursuing this week.
Owned in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues, Josh Reddick has hit .273/.328/.504 with 11 homers against righites. Deep-league managers searching for power should turn to Adam Dunn, who sports a .464 slugging percentage since being dealt to Oakland at the end of August.
Facing several righties is common enough, but the Dodgers have five lefties on the schedule for their upcoming seven-game week. That's great news for the rejuvenated Carl Crawford, who hits .313/.370/.500 against them. After hitting .313 in August, the red-hot 33-year-old has hit .515 with two homers thus far this September.
Meanwhile, that's poor news for Adrian Gonzalez, who wields a dubious .547 OPS against southpaws. Benching a reliable star with 103 RBI seems cruel, but the lefty is a shell of himself against same-handed hurlers.
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Consider Ballparks, Home/Road Splits
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Each stadium possesses unique dimensions, fences and climates. Ignoring such discrepancies can cost gamers dearly during the stretch run.
The Colorado Rockies play all seven games at Coors Field this week, which is bad news for their opposing pitchers. The only mixed-league mainstay potentially on the docket is Hyun-jin Ryu, who is tough to bench given his 3.38 ERA and 4.79 K/BB ratio.
Yet his owners should sit him against the Rockies, who hit .318/.369/.521 with 5.9 runs per game at home. Even without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, Denver's high altitude makes the matchup too risky to test this week.
And that's before Don Mattingly labeled him as "doubtful" for that start with a shoulder injury, according to the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin. Either way, don't mess with him or possible replacement Carlos Frias.
On the other hand, that creates opportunities on the offensive side. Recently returned from the disabled list, Michael Cuddyer is worth the look if available. The 35-year-old has taken full advantage of Coors Field this season, hitting .396/.446/.695 there in 59 games.
In deeper leagues. D.J. LeMahieu and Josh Rutledge are also viable middle-infield plug-ins for the week. Both hit over .300 at home (LeMahieu .325, Rutledge .309) and are riding hot bats.
Park factors aside, some players, young pitchers especially, respond well to a raucous home crowd in the corner. Despite tossing a complete-game shutout against the Chicago Cubs earlier last week, Marcus Stroman can't be trusted this weekend against the New York Yankees. Not only is Yankee Stadium tailor-made for cheap homers to right field, but the rookie pitcher brandishes a 5.73 ERA on the road.
Fellow rookie Jake Odorizzi also gets the Yankees this week but does so in the comfort of Tropicana Field, where he boasts 2.69 ERA and 9.5 K/9 ratio. Add in another home tilt against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, and he's well worth employing this week.
Grab the Hot Hand
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The law of averages dictates that streaking players will drop back down to earth. With time winding down, however, the season could finish before regression retaliates.
After stealing six bases all of last season, Juan Lagares has swiped 11 bags since the All-Star break. It's not a complete coincidence, as The Star-Ledger's Mike Vorkunov reported earlier this month, that the New York Mets want him to run more.
With his line-drive rate ballooning from 15.7 to 22.5 percent this season, his .284 average might not be a fluke either. His incredible defense has always made him a valuable real-life contributor, but his aggressiveness on the basepaths now vaults him into fantasy relevance as well.
Receiving production at catcher is always difficult, but Dioner Navarro is on a roll and available in a majority of Yahoo leagues. After a disappointing start, the Toronto Blue Jays backstop has already exceeded his pre-break home run output (five) with seven after the All-Star Game. He caught fire late last season as well, batting .313 with five long balls after the Midsummer Classic, so grab the late bloomer for a last-minute surge.
Need a pitcher? Staying in Toronto, reliever Aaron Sanchez has a 1.30 ERA this season, relinquishing one run in his past 13 outings. Casey Janssen has coughed up 16 earned runs in his last 18 innings. Sanchez should continue to bite into Janssen's ninth-inning duties with the Blue Jays fostering slim playoff hopes.
Second Chances
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Like everyone else, fantasy baseball managers hold grudges. Make us look bad, and we'll never forget it.
Remembering is fine, but don't keep a "dead to me" list of guys who will never sniff any of your squads again. Just because you whiffed the first time doesn't mean the same result is inevitable again.
If you're like me, you've played hot potato with Brad Miller throughout the season. Most owners expunged the Seattle Mariners shortstop after a dreadful start, but he showed a pulse in June by hitting .298 with five homers.
Everyone rushed to make amends with Miller, and he repaid them by dipping right back into obscurity the following month. He hit .172 in July, losing playing time to Chris Taylor in the process. Well, safe to drop him again. But wait, he's hot again, hitting .345 with two long balls in September.
Maybe this is a third chance for some, but Miller is at least worth a shot in deeper leagues. Just don't play him against lefties, against whom he has hit .176 this year.
Everyone expected the world of top prospect Xander Bogaerts, but the 21-year-old instead looked overmatched for most of his rookie campaign. As often the case, we hyped Bogaerts to an unreachable standard, but he's quietly finding his groove under the radar.
Along with hitting .340 with three homers this month, the rookie has struck out just eight times through 56 plate appearances, giving him a 14.3 strikeout percentage lower than his 23.4 percent season rate. Now that the Boston Red Sox are well out of contention, Bogaerts can progress without any national pressure. Unless everyone reads this, adds him and expects him to seal the deal on a fantasy title.
No Time for Patience
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They'll come around. Just a little patience, and some of MLB's slumping stars will get their acts together.
That cool-headed line of thinking is perfectly acceptable at any other juncture of the season. With two weeks remaining, there's not enough sand in the hourglass to maintain such optimism.
Justin Verlander remains owned in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues, yet even AL-only owners would hesitate to start the slumping ace. His 6.96 K/9 ratio is the lowest mark of his career since 2006, and his 4.82 ERA is dangerously close to rising over his previous career low (4.84) from 2008.
It'd be one thing if he turned the corner like last year, but he's allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last five outings. He stays in the fold on name recognition, but nobody else with his numbers would continue to be started.
Since returning from the disabled list mid-August, Brandon Phillips has proved to be less trouble to his fantasy owners when inactive. He has yet to clear the fences since coming back from thumb surgery and may not even match last season's five stolen bases.
The second baseman doesn't care about his on-base percentage, but he and fantasy gamers will take notice of his .260 batting average and .364 slugging percentage. As for those who realize the value of plate discipline, that 5.0 walk percentage is still terrible.
Why roster him over Kolten Wong, Jedd Gyorko or Scooter Gennett? Cut ties with the struggling veteran, who is doing your fantasy squad no favors.
Let the Injured Stars Loose
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You waited patiently for your injured stars to return, hoping for a major boost upon their heroic arrivals back to the big leagues. For many of those players, it's time to face the cold truth. If they're not back now, will they ever come back this season?
Even if they do, will one week be worth the wait, especially if that time is spent dusting off the cobwebs?
Brandon Belt is hoping to be back in time for the postseason, but not your postseason. The first baseman told MLB.com's Chris Haft that he wants to play if the Giants make the playoffs, even that is far from a certainty:
"SF's Brandon Belt, overcoming concussion, wants to play in postseason: "I don't know how realistic that is, but that's what I'm hoping for"
— Chris Haft/SF Giants (@sfgiantsbeat) September 9, 2014"
For our purposes, it's safe to drop Belt, who remains owned in half of Yahoo leagues. Despite hitting seven homers during a misleading April, he has smacked just 11 long balls this year with a .237 average.
Anibal Sanchez may return for one start during the final week, but that's the best-case scenario. Before he went to the disabled list, last year's AL ERA leader recorded a 4.88 ERA through his last nine starts. Would you really trust him for that one start with first place on the line?
One possible exception: Masahiro Tanaka, who could swing a few title games if he returns this season. The Japanese ace, who has missed the past two months with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, could rejoin the New York Yankees after one more rehab outing, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews.
If all goes well, he could take the hill during the Sept. 18-21 four-game series against the Blue Jays. Assuming all goes smoothly, he could then close out the season against the Baltimore Orioles or on the road versus the Boston Red Sox.
None of those American League East opponents offer tremendous matchups, but he was a Cy Young contender before going on the shelf. He's worth reserving on the disabled list or bench.
Keep Track of Categories
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Everything leading up to this point has addressed wringing out the most production possible from your fantasy lineup. It's obviously imperative to construct the best product possible, but your head-to-head competitor may affect what that entails.
Has your opponent essentially tanked a category—most likely saves or stolen bases, if any—to focus on everything else? If so, compiling 10 of either won't help much, as most of them won't make a difference. If the other team has no speed to speak of, using a one-skilled speedster makes no sense.
Track your matchups throughout the final two weeks. If you're down three wins and 15 strikeouts heading into the final weekend, you'll want to hit the market for some starting pitchers taking the mound. Conversely, you'll want to sit a risky starter on your roster if you hold the sizable edge in the pitching categories.
Not in a standard five-by-five league? Remember that most writers are analyzing with the typical format in mind to help the most players, but you need to adjust any rankings and advice accordingly. For example, I previously touted Lagares as a nice add, but his value sinks considerably in leagues using any combination of walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
But hey, you've played with those rules for months. Chances are you're not just finding out holds count just as much as saves. If so, you might want to fix that and pay closer attention next season.
Hope to Get Lucky
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Who are we kidding? The best laid plans of mice, men and women—they make up 20 percent of the fantasy sports demographic, according to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association—often go awry.
None of this advice will matter if Felix Hernandez picks the final week to give up nine runs or Mike Trout can't buy a hit. If your opponent's Derek Jeter ends his career with a four-homer week despite hitting three all year, you're stuck lamenting an undeserved defeat based on poor decisions somehow working out for the other team.
Mirroring the real playoffs, head-to-head leagues are riddled with uncertainty and randomness. Often in both the real and fantasy worlds the champion is not the best team but simply the most fortuitous. Skill is necessary to win a fantasy league, but so is luck.
In the end, you can only do so much to seek out victory. As long as you try everything in your power to finish a champion, hold your head up high knowing the final outcome is ultimately out of your hands.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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