Updated 2014 MLB Award Race Odds with 3 Weeks to Go
The 2014 Major League Baseball season may be winding down, but like the pennant races and wild-card chases, a lot of the individual award competitions are gearing up. As the 30 clubs make their way toward the finish line, players are wrapping up impressive campaigns that soon enough will result in some hardware.
Yes, it's time again to check in with an update of the 10 prominent individual awards races as the final three weeks play out. Back in mid-August, when there was but a quarter of the season left, we took a look at the battles for the very same awards.
Another month of performances has gone a long way toward clarifying where things stand in each league in terms of front-runners and challengers for Manager of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award winner and MVP.
Even though there isn't much time left in 2014, some of these end-of-year honors will come down to, well, the very end. That's why, on the pages to follow, the top candidates for each category have been assigned odds to specify their chances of taking the trophy.
Because there is no award for participation.
AL Manager of the Year
1 of 10
| Buck Showalter | Baltimore Orioles | 5-2 |
| Mike Scioscia | Los Angeles Angels | 3-1 |
| Ned Yost | Kansas City Royals | 4-1 |
| Lloyd McClendon | Seattle Mariners | 9-1 |
| Bob Melvin | Oakland Athletics | 9-1 |
| Brad Ausmus | Detroit Tigers | 18-1 |
Through the first three-quarters of the season, it looked like Bob Melvin had this sewn up, and then the Oakland Athletics went into a spiral at the very same time the Baltimore Orioles seized control of the AL East, opening up what is the largest division lead in baseball.
Buck Showalter is and always has been a master tactician, and he's done especially fine work while getting the most out of a rotation that has been very good in the second half (3.07 ERA) despite lacking a legitimate front-end arm. That the O's have had this much success despite two core players—catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado—missing most of 2014 also speaks to Showalter's savvy.
Meanwhile, Mike Scioscia has polished up his reputation after a couple of years of taking hits as the Los Angeles Angels disappointed. Even after losing lefty Tyler Skaggs (Tommy John surgery) and Cy Young candidate Garrett Richards (knee surgery) for the year, his club has the BRIB (best record in baseball) and is the first to 90 wins.
In Kansas City, Ned Yost has done fine work with the Royals' elite bullpen, deftly deploying hard-throwing right-handers Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland, while also presiding over a defense that has been the best around. And of course, he'll have narrative in his corner, since the Royals haven't sniffed the postseason since 1985.
NL Manager of the Year
2 of 10
| Bruce Bochy | San Francisco Giants | 4-1 |
| Clint Hurdle | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9-2 |
| Mike Redmond | Miami Marlins | 9-2 |
| Don Mattingly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11-2 |
| Matt Williams | Washington Nationals | 11-2 |
| Mike Matheny | St. Louis Cardinals | 6-1 |
Compared to the AL, the Senior Circuit's MOY is pretty wide open.
The pick here—for now—is Bruce Bochy, who has managed (pun intended) to guide his San Francisco Giants back from a midseason slump that saw them go an ugly 21-37 from June 8 through Aug. 15. That's the sort of stretch that often does a team in, but Bochy's group has rebounded to a 16-7 mark since, putting them right behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
Clint Hurdle and Mike Redmond fall into the typical doing-the-most-with-the-least mold that so often gets credited in this category. Hurdle's Pittsburgh Pirates have overcome injuries (Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole) and inconsistency (Pedro Alvarez, Gregory Polanco) to be in position to earn a second straight shot at October after 21 consecutive years away.
Redmond and the Miami Marlins have had their own injury issues—Jose Fernandez's season-ending Tommy John surgery back in May, in particular—and continue to hang around the fringes despite brandishing the youngest pitching staff in the majors and superstar Giancarlo Stanton being one of the few offensive threats.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
3 of 10
| Albert Pujols | Los Angeles Angels | 2-3 |
| Phil Hughes | Minnesota Twins | 4-1 |
| Melky Cabrera | Toronto Blue Jays | 4-1 |
Melky Cabrera's fractured right pinkie finger ends his 2014 and more or less his chances to win an award that he was in line for as long as he finished strong.
"That's one of our top dogs," Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com upon learning Cabrera's prognosis. "He's one of those guys that's really tough to replace. He had a tremendous year for us."
That vacancy leaves Albert Pujols—the bigger, more hyped name—as the top choice for the AL's Comeback Player of the Year. After hitting just .258/.330/.437 and missing the final two months of 2013 with foot problems, the 34-year-old Pujols has been considerably (but not overwhelmingly) better with a .278/.332/.477 line.
More importantly, Pujols unquestionably has been healthier, which has allowed him to reach a number of milestones in 2014, like 500 home runs as well as 2,500 hits and 1,500 runs. That alone should attract enough voters, even those who might be tempted to hand this honor over to Derek Jeter in his final (albeit not CPOY-worthy) year.
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NL Comeback Player of the Year
4 of 10
| Johnny Cueto | Cincinnati Reds | 1-10 |
| Casey McGehee | Miami Marlins | 18-1 |
| Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers | 18-1 |
Here's our first runaway. Apologies to Casey McGehee, the Miami Marlins third baseman who spent last season in Japan, and Matt Kemp, who spent more than half of last season on the disabled list with a variety of ailments, but they are little more than courtesy mentions.
Johnny Cueto gets this one. The 28-year-old missed all but 11 starts while dealing with a cranky lat muscle that put him on the DL three separate times in 2013. While Cueto was good when he was on the mound (2.82 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.6 K/9), he wasn't on it enough.
Not only that, the Cincinnati Reds right-hander has bumped up his game while on the mound in 2014 to the tune of a 2.23 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 9.0 K/9—all career bests.
As Mike Axisa of CBS Sports writes: "Forget Comeback Player of the Year. Cueto is a legitimate Cy Young contender." We'll be getting to that shortly.
AL Rookie of the Year
5 of 10
| Jose Abreu | Chicago White Sox | 1-10 |
| Yordano Ventura | Kansas City Royals | 33-1 |
| Collin McHugh | Houston Astros | 33-1 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Tampa Bay Rays | 33-1 |
| Marcus Stroman | Toronto Blue Jays | 33-1 |
Here's another landslide—this one in favor of former Cuban star-turned-Chicago White Sox slugging first baseman Jose Abreu.
Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com breaks down just how historic the rookie's season has been:
"Abreu this season has a 172 OPS+, which is a way of saying he's been 72-percent better than average. In the game's long history, just one other rookie who qualified for the batting title has posted an OPS+ of 170 or higher, and, no, it wasn't Mike Trout (168) in 2012.
It was Shoeless Joe Jackson (193), way back in 1911.
The best offensive season by a rookie in more than a century? Yeah, Abreu has at least one statistical argument for it.
So Abreu will run away with the American League Rookie of the Year Award. And if it weren't for the stigma associated with non-contenders, he'd probably be a legitimate threat to Trout for the AL Most Valuable Player Award.
"
The "shame" of this is that this is quite the rookie class in the Junior Circuit, thanks to four young starting pitchers in Yordano Ventura, Collin McHugh, Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stroman. And yet Abreu, 27, still has had the ROY in his back pocket ever since a fifth, Masahiro Tanaka, suffered his midseason elbow injury.
Beyond that bunch, fellow first-year players—like George Springer (Houston Astros), Roenis Elias (Seattle Mariners), Dellin Betances (New York Yankees), Matt Shoemaker (Los Angeles Angels), Trevor Bauer (Cleveland Indians), Kevin Gausman (Baltimore Orioles) and even Danny Santana (Minnesota Twins)—actually would be worth considering as opposed to merely mentioning in most other years.
And that's not including the various degrees of disappointing that top prospects Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox), Nick Castellanos (Detroit Tigers) and Jon Singleton (Houston Astros) have been.
NL Rookie of the Year
6 of 10
| Billy Hamilton | Cincinnati Reds | 3-2 |
| Jacob deGrom | New York Mets | 3-2 |
| Kolten Wong | St. Louis Cardinals | 11-2 |
This one is a dead heat that could come down to whether Jacob deGrom can avoid any poor outings over his final few turns. If the New York Mets' 26-year-old does, then his 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 over nearly 150 innings will look a whole lot better than Billy Hamilton's .298 on-base percentage.
As much as Hamilton, 24, has been an elite defensive center fielder and big base-stealer (55 SB), he also has been nabbed 21 times for a subpar 72 percent success rate. And his awful second half (.218/.262/.275) opened the door for deGrom to return to the race after an August trip to the DL for shoulder soreness.
Here's what Jim Callis writes about Hamilton for Sports on Earth:
"Though he still has a lot of work to do at the plate, the quickest player in the majors has had a solid rookie season. Hamilton has been a valuable defender in center field in only his second year playing the position, and he has stolen 55 bases -- a number that could easily double if he enhances his on-base ability and improves his reads and jumps. He already has set a career high with seven homers, but he needs to focus on making contact so he can wreak more havoc with his speed.
"
Hey, maybe deGrom should get this award simply for being able to catch up to the super-speedy Cincinnati Red.
It's unlikely that the underrated Kolten Wong will get much consideration after an early-season demotion, despite flashing a nice pop-speed combo with 11 home runs and 20 steals for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Overall, the NL's class of first-year players has been merely so-so, as some of the other names include the solid-but-entirely-unspectacular Chase Anderson (Arizona Diamondbacks), major disappointments like Gregory Polanco (Pittsburgh Pirates) and Oscar Taveras (St. Louis Cardinals), and too-little-too-late call-ups like Ken Giles (Philadelphia Phillies) and Jorge Soler (Chicago Cubs).
AL Cy Young
7 of 10
| Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 2-3 |
| Corey Kluber | Cleveland Indians | 9-1 |
| Chris Sale | Chicago White Sox | 9-1 |
| Jon Lester | Oakland Athletics | 9-1 |
| Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 9-1 |
Injuries derailed the chances of Yu Darvish and Garrett Richards, but with Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and even David Price all cutting up lineups this year, it's a testament to how incredible Felix Hernandez has been that he's going to take home his second Cy without a second thought.
After all, the 28-year-old ranks in the top three in all of baseball in everything from ERA (2.12) to WHIP (0.92) to batting average against (.200), and his 217 strikeouts are in the top five. The King, by the way, has done that in a whopping 212.0 innings to date—the third-highest total in MLB.
Add in a go-to statistical record—like the right-hander's 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and no more than two runs allowed—and this is pretty much in the bag.
"I'm running out of words for Felix," Seattle Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon told Greg Johns of MLB.com back in August. Join the club, Lloyd.
NL Cy Young
8 of 10
| Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1-4 |
| Johnny Cueto | Cincinnati Reds | 4-1 |
As much as Johnny Cueto is lapping the field in the NL Comeback Player of the Year category, Clayton Kershaw is just about doing that to Cueto—and the rest of the Senior Circuit's pitchers—in the Cy Young race.
That's especially unbelievable because Kershaw actually missed six weeks with injury after making his first start of the season in the 2014 MLB opener in Australia. Oh, and remember that in his third start back, he had that career-worst seven-runs-in-1.2-innings disaster when the Arizona Diamondbacks knocked him around their park.
Despite all that, the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty has a ridiculous 0.82 WHIP—the fifth-lowest by a starting pitcher, like, ever—and is the only starter in baseball with 18 wins and an ERA less than 2.00 (1.67).
The 26-year-old is only a few weeks from wrapping up a season in which he's posting a career best in just about every pitching statistic possibly imaginable. And this is coming from a guy who has two Cy Youngs—and probably should have a third—already.
Apologies to other top arms like Cueto, Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants), Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies), Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals), Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), as well as Kershaw's rotation mate Zack Greinke. You guys have been great, but Kershaw is pitching on another planet right now.
AL MVP
9 of 10
| Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | 2-5 |
| Victor Martinez | Detroit Tigers | 9-1 |
| Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 18-1 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers | 18-1 |
| Robinson Cano | Seattle Mariners | 18-1 |
| Nelson Cruz | Baltimore Orioles | 18-1 |
It's going to happen, and it's going to happen this year: Mike Trout will win MVP. After coming in second place to Miguel Cabrera each of the last two seasons, Trout will have his first. Finally.
Admittedly, it's a little weird to say "finally" when we're talking about a 23-year-old kid in his third full season in the majors. But that's how historically great the Los Angeles Angels outfielder has been to this point.
It's also a little funny that Trout's name will be on the hardware this time, following a year that looks to be his "worst" so far. After all, he's not stealing as many bases (14), and his strikeout rate has jumped considerably (25 percent). In addition, his second half has been noticeably worse (.792 OPS compared to 1.005 pre-break).
Ah, but he's still triple-slashing .286/.373/.551, and he's already set career highs in home runs (32) and RBI (103), two categories that many MVP voters fawn over. Then there's the fact that, with his 100th run of the season on Wednesday, Trout became the sixth player in history to reach that mark three times before his age-23 season, per Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.
"That's one of my goals—to get 100 runs," Trout said. "To drive in 100 is definitely a big goal, too. Those are definitely things you shoot for before the season."
Whichever side you fell on in the Trout-versus-Miggy debate in 2012 and 2013, the primary argument against Trout—that his club didn't make or come all that close to the playoffs—no longer applies. The Angels own the BRIB, and Trout is the biggest reason why. The old best-player-on-the-best-team argument just about cinches it.
Other players have had campaigns worth considering, and to the group up top, you could easily add Kyle Seager (Seattle Mariners) and Adam Jones (Baltimore Orioles) at the bottom. But a line gets drawn somewhere, and ultimately, Trout is going to win this pretty handily.
NL MVP
10 of 10
| Giancarlo Stanton | Miami Marlins | 5-4 |
| Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 9-5 |
| Andrew McCutchen | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9-1 |
| Buster Posey | San Francisco Giants | 9-1 |
The crux of this final award comes down to whether one believes pitchers can—and should—win MVP when they have their very own honor for which position players are not eligible. It's not an easy decision to make, and it's going to be especially challenging in 2014 because of what Clayton Kershaw is doing. (You recall reading about him just a little while ago, yes?)
Aside from that, many will argue that a starting pitcher only gets 30-32 chances to help his team, whereas a position player is out there for 150-plus games.
Is it really fair to compare the two? In many ways, no.
Then again, there's this to consider: In Kershaw's 24 starts, the Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 20-4; when anybody else takes the mound, they have gone 63-59, which is barely above .500. So Kershaw turns a solid record into first place in the NL West and very nearly the best in the entire NL.
As otherworldly as Kershaw has been, however, he's falling just short here because of two reasons: He missed more than a month of the season, and Giancarlo Stanton has been so good the Miami Marlins actually have remained in contention for a postseason berth to this point, even after losing Jose Fernandez for the year back in May.
The 24-year-old outfielder is hitting .287/.395/.554 with the second-most home runs (37) and the most RBI (105) in the majors, and his 94 walks are the most in the NL. Heck, Stanton and Trout are having uncannily similar seasons. And in case you hadn't noticed, the formerly injury-prone Stanton has played in every...single...game.
So it's Stanton. But if Kershaw finishes with three more gems...
Statistics are accurate as of Sept. 11 and come from MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com, except where otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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