Divisional Win-Loss Predictions Following NFL Week 1

For every team that looked good on paper but horrible in the preseason or vice versa, fans of that team could find solace in the fact that it was preseason. Those games didn't count in the standings, and everyone has a clean slate to make all the 4-12 predictions look ridiculous.

With one week of football under our belts, there are teams that already look like they will defy expectations. Others, meanwhile, are exactly who we thought they were.

What can we expect from all 32 teams over the next 15 weeks? Did some merely have a bump in the road or a game that exceeded expectations, or are the first games of the year a taste of what's to come?

AFC East

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Any given Sunday symbolizes the AFC East more than any other division right now. Everyone had the New England Patriots winning it easily, and while the other teams are 1-0, the Patriots are 0-1 to start 2014.

That being said, the Miami Dolphins always play the Patriots tough, and we can safely say the Patriots will still win the division. They have the most talented offense in the East by a mile, and their defense is better than many give them credit for. Besides, this is a team built for the playoffs, not the regular season.

The Buffalo Bills win told me more about the Chicago Bears than the Bills to be honest. The defense is a work in progress (with no Jairus Byrd or Kiko Alonso), as is the offense. EJ Manuel, Sammy Watkins, et al will have their good and their bad games this season, and it's going to take a year to get the Bills closer to their first winning record since 2004.

The New York Jets and Dolphins, meanwhile, are two of the hardest teams to figure out. The Jets always seem like they could turn into a 4-12 team in a second, yet every season Rex Ryan gets the most out of them. The question is whether Geno Smith can get over that hump; as of right now he could go either way, just like the Jets.

The Dolphins had to completely redo their offensive line, and while it looked fine against the Patriots (only one sack), they do not have a fearsome front seven. Luckily, they have an easy schedule and don't have to face overly tough pass-rushers, so they can play to their strengths in their offense, including Knowshon Moreno and Mike Wallace.

New England Patriots: 11-5

Miami Dolphins: 9-7

New York Jets: 7-9

Buffalo Bills: 5-11

AFC North

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The AFC North is composed of three talented teams with some question marks that could keep them under .500 through the rest of the season. Of the three, the Cincinnati Bengals have the least to worry about. Aside from having one of the best receivers in the league in A.J. Green, their defense has suddenly become a fearsome unit, especially on the defensive line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, have issues with defense, something I never thought I would say. They have plenty of talent on offense, but it is going to take a while for the young talent to make an impact, and the longtime starters are showing their age now.

The Baltimore Ravens no longer have Ray Rice, their defense is revamped, meaning it will need time to adjust, and they have Joe Flacco. And even with an improved receiving corps I'm not convinced Joe Flacco can lead this team to the playoffs, let alone another Super Bowl.

As for the Cleveland Browns, it's the first time since 1999 I actually like the front office in place to go along with the coaches, and there's some talent in the lineup, but the failed comeback against Pittsburgh is this team in a nutshell. Until the Browns actually win it's pointless to get excited.

Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7

Baltimore Ravens: 7-9

Cleveland Browns: 4-12

AFC South

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The only storyline in the AFC South this year is who will end up grabbing second place. The Indianapolis Colts are easily the best team, and Andrew Luck seems to get better each week. He struggled a bit against the Denver Broncos, but it's better that he gets any issues out now rather than during another possible playoff appearance; he and the team will be fine.

The other three teams, meanwhile, are all ones I have faith in as potential surprise teams, yet all of them have major question marks. The Tennessee Titans looked convincing in a win against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they don't have as much talent on paper as they looked on Sunday. Plus, if Jake Locker gets hurt and misses time, the season's over.

The Houston Texans are the opposite. On paper they should be competing with the Colts, but we saw how they performed without a quarterback last year, and they did not address that this season. Maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick can have a winning record for once with magic we have not seen, but I doubt it.

I might be the only person who has faith in the Jacksonville Jaguars, so I have them with a better record than probably anyone. I love what Gus Bradley is doing with the team, and once Blake Bortles gets the helm this team can become great fast.

For now, Jacksonville is a team that needs a couple players to step up and be dominant, as drive can only get you so far. Besides, are the Jaguars in the first quarter against the Eagles the real deal? For that matter, did the Titans and Texans only look good because they faced the Chiefs and Washington Redskins?

In the case of all three, the answer's a mix of them being good and bad, and it's entirely possible one of the teams shocks and gets 10 wins. It's also possible all three end up looking about the same, which is what I see happening in the end.

Indianapolis Colts: 12-4

Houston Texans: 7-9

Tennessee Titans: 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10

AFC West

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Top to bottom, this is the easiest division to predict. I don't think I've seen a single list go a different way than the one through four noted here.

The Denver Broncos have out-of-division games against the San Francisco 49ers, Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Bengals, so their win-loss record probably isn't going to hit 13-3 again, despite the fact they are better this year, losing Eric Decker but revamping their defense and giving it much-needed new blood.

The San Diego Chargers had a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals they should have come away with. The receiving group is great with Philip Rivers at the helm, and San Diego doesn't have much to worry about despite it likely being 0-2 after next week's game against the Seahawks.

The Chiefs have Jamaal Charles on offense and Justin Houston on defense, but having poor receivers and a questionable secondary in this league tells me, in short, that I hope Chiefs fans enjoyed last year since there won't be a sequel.

Then again, it could be worse. The Oakland Raiders didn't lose as badly as the Chiefs did, but they could have won Sunday's game, and they just don't have the talent that the other three teams do. Derek Carr looked fine in his first game, but it's going to be a rough rookie season for him as the cracks form in the lineup.

Denver Broncos: 12-4

San Diego Chargers: 10-6

Kansas City Chiefs: 5-11

Oakland Raiders: 3-13

NFC East

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Right now, I cannot foresee a situation where more than one team finishes above .500 in this division, and three teams with seven wins, which happened last season, is too much to ask on top of that.

The Philadelphia Eagles are the class of this division and came back strong after trailing early against Jacksonville. If anything, the Eagles are a stronger cohesive unit than they were last season. My record for them is not just due to their strengths, though, but due to the poorness of the rest of the division.

Somehow, the Redskins may have the second-best defense in the NFC East, which is a far cry from where they were a year ago. They have more talent on paper with the additions of Jason Hatcher and Ryan Clark, but at the same time I can't pretend the Texans' loss was a complete fluke.

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, looked horrible, albeit against better teams than the Redskins had to face. Both Eli Manning and Tony Romo looked five years older, and both defenses looked shot.

If the Eagles don't go 6-0 or 5-1 in the division this year, then something went wrong in Philly since this is a cakewalk. The Giants had their first losing record with Eli Manning last year, and they always seem to pull out more wins than perhaps they should on paper. Nonetheless, the three other teams should start watching next year's draft class.

Philadelphia Eagles: 12-4

Washington Redskins: 7-9

New York Giants: 6-10

Dallas Cowboys: 4-12

NFC North

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In 2013, the NFC North looked like a shell of its dominant 2012 self, as no team managed nine wins. That won't happen this year given that the Green Bay Packers improved their defense and have Aaron Rodgers back. The offense took a bit of a hit, and it looked bad against Seattle, but Rodgers is an elite quarterback who can find ways to win.

If the dominant performance against the Giants was any indication, then this is the year the Detroit Lions finally get it. The secondary is still a question mark to me, but the rest of the team on both sides of the ball is great, and I actually think the Lions could hang with the Packers most of the year.

The Bears, meanwhile, have lots of talent on offense as well. However, Jay Cutler has never been able to get over the hump of being a solid quarterback, and the defense is no longer the type of unit that scares opposing offenses.

As for the Minnesota Vikings, they were dominant against the St. Louis Rams, but in fairness it was the Rams. The defense is mostly young and will need time to mesh, and while Minnesota has talent on offense, Matt Cassel is not the future of this team. Once Teddy Bridgewater starts, the Vikings should look better, but that may be not be for a while yet.

Green Bay Packers: 11-5

Detroit Lions: 10-6

Chicago Bears: 7-9

Minnesota Vikings: 5-11

NFC South

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The NFC South has the potential to be the most competitive division. I would be shocked if it had two 12-loss teams again this year or even one.

The Atlanta Falcons are better than their 4-12 record last year, and they might have the best wide receiver combo in the NFL in Roddy White and Julio Jones. I'm not sold on the trenches, but in the passing game, both offense and defense, the Falcons are in great shape, and that's what matters in today's NFL.

The New Orleans Saints may have lost to the Falcons, but they still have one of the game's best quarterbacks in Drew Brees, and the offense alone will win enough games to get the team in the playoffs. The defense looked bad against Atlanta, but the core of last year is still there, and the Saints managed well enough then.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked bad in the loss to the Carolina Panthers, but I believe that, like the Falcons, they are a much better team than we saw last year. Quarterback Josh McCown will bounce back from the last game, and the Buccaneers have enough added talent on both sides of the ball to go with new head coach Lovie Smith that they should bounce back quickly.

The Panthers looked good against Tampa Bay despite losing Cam Newton, but I think this is Week 1's biggest fluke. The offense is a giant question mark with Steve Smith gone, and while the Panthers have some good pieces on defense, it won't be enough in this division.

You need offense to succeed in the NFC South, and simply put, three teams have it, and one does not. And the one that does not will fall short.

New Orleans Saints: 11-5

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8

Carolina Panthers: 6-10

NFC West

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How good can the 49ers and Seahawks be? They are the best two teams in the NFC, and they both looked every bit the part this past week. Could they both win 13 games this season?

Given that outside of the Broncos and Eagles they have a very easy schedule, I don't see why not, as both have dominant defenses (namely Seahawks) and talented offenses (namely 49ers). This is presuming that the 49ers can overcome the losses of Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman, which is asking a lot, but I think they have the talent to do it.

The other two teams in the division are practically afterthoughts. I felt the Rams were overrated heading into the season, and then they lost Sam Bradford for the year. Bradford could have led this team to an OK record, but without him and Chris Long most of the year to manage the offense and defense, the Rams could have a great shot at the No. 1 pick.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are an enigma. Part of me finds their defense overrated and their key players too old, while part of me likes what Bruce Arians has done and thinks their 10-6 record last year may not be a fluke.

Unfortunately for them they're in the same division as the Seahawks and 49ers, so mending the fence between greatness (Seahawks/Niners) and awfulness (Rams) may be the best they can do.

Seattle Seahawks: 13-3

San Francisco 49ers: 13-3

Arizona Cardinals: 8-8

St. Louis Rams: 2-14