Highlighting the Top 10 MLB Prospect Breakout Performances of 2014
Prospect evaluation is far from an exact science in baseball, and even the most highly regarded prospects labeled as "can't miss" sometimes wind up doing just that.
On the other hand, there are always a few guys that come out of nowhere to burst onto the top prospect scene, and this season has been no different.
So here is a look at the top 10 prospect breakout performances of 2014, based on expectations for the player entering the season and his prospect profile moving forward.
*Note: Prospect rankings reflect preseason ranks from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, MLB.com's Prospect Watch and Minor League Ball's team prospect rankings from John Sickels.
*Unless otherwise noted, all stats and draft/signing information courtesy of Baseball-Reference and MLB.com's Prospect Watch, respectively.
SS Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays
1 of 10Born: Sept. 2, 1995 (19 years old)
Acquired: 2012 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A | 125 | 450 | .271/.353/.429 | 122 | 31 (8) | 61 | 55 | 6 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 30 DET prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: NR
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
Willy Adames was an unknown commodity entering the season, as he had just 60 games and 200 at-bats in the Dominican Summer League to his credit as a professional.
However, he showed enough in those games to earn the jump straight to full-season Single-A West Michigan, and his game took off from there as one of the youngest players at the level.
It was not until the trade deadline that he gained some notoriety around the league as the prospect the Detroit Tigers packaged along with Drew Smyly and shipped to the Tampa Bay Rays in the David Price blockbuster.
He'll battle with Hak-Ju Lee to be the team's long-term answer at shortstop, and there's a decent chance he opens next season as the No. 1 prospect in the Rays' system ahead of Casey Gillaspie and Taylor Guerrieri.
2B/SS Wilmer Difo, Washington Nationals
2 of 10Born: April 2, 1992 (22 years old)
Acquired: 2010 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A | 136 | 559 | .315/.360/.470 | 176 | 52 (14) | 90 | 91 | 49 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: NR
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: NR
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
After signing as an 18-year-old in 2010, Wilmer Difo spent the first three seasons of his pro career playing at the Rookie League level, and he was not even on the prospect radar entering the season.
The infielder hit a combined .217/.296/.348 with 11 extra-base hits and nine steals in 207 at-bats, reaching the High-A level for six games to close out the season, but he was bumped back down to Single-A to kick off 2014.
He responded with a breakout season, winning South Atlantic League MVP honors and showing surprising power and run-production skills. His speed remains his best tool, but his offensive game has taken a big step forward as a whole, and it will be interesting to see how responds to the higher levels of the minors.
"He’s given me a lot of gray hairs. But he’s finally grown up," Nationals international scouting director Johnny DiPuglia told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. "He’s at the point of his life where he can accept failure."
2B/SS Dilson Herrera, New York Mets
3 of 10
Born: March 3, 1994 (20 years old)
Acquired: 2010 IFA (Colombia)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A+ | 67 | 283 | .307/.355/.410 | 87 | 21 (3) | 23 | 48 | 14 |
| AA | 61 | 241 | .340/.406/.560 | 82 | 30 (10) | 48 | 50 | 9 |
| Totals | 128 | 524 | .323/.379/.479 | 169 | 51 (13) | 71 | 98 | 23 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 13 NYM prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: No. 11 NYM prospect
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): No. 11 NYM prospect
Prospect Overview
The New York Mets acquired Dilson Herrera in the trade that sent Marlon Byrd and John Buck to the Pittsburgh Pirates last August, and he quickly emerged as one of the top middle infield prospects in the game.
He hit .267/.334/.416 with 41 extra-base hits and 60 RBI playing in Single-A last year, and he opened the season as a 20-year-old playing for High-A St. Lucie.
The team saw enough from him between High-A and Double-A to give him a late-August call-up, and he's hit .243/.317/.459 with two home runs and seven RBI in 37 at-bats. It remains to be seen where he fits into the team's 2015 plans, but the organization is happy with what it has seen.
"I’d rather not predict where he’ll be next year," GM Sandy Alderson told Mike Vorkunov of NJ.com. "I don’t want to limit him. On the other hand we have to be realistic too about the level of his experience but I think that we’re all very pleased with what he’s done so far. I think he’s had a big impact on the club over the last couple of weeks."
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SP Francellis Montas, Chicago White Sox
4 of 10Born: March 21, 1993 (21 years old)
Acquired: 2009 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2014 Minor League Stats
| RK | 4 | 14.0 | 1-0 | 1.29 | 0.929 | 4.5 | 14.8 |
| A+ | 10 | 62.0 | 4-0 | 1.60 | 0.952 | 2.0 | 8.1 |
| AA | 1 | 5.0 | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.400 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Totals | 15 | 81.0 | 5-0 | 1.44 | 0.914 | 2.4 | 8.9 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 29 CWS prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: No. 19 CWS prospect
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
Francellis Montas was one of three minor league pitchers the Chicago White Sox received in the three-team, seven-player trade that sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox at the deadline last year, and he has quickly turned into one of the team's top pitching prospects.
Montas was touching triple digits on his fastball as an 18-year-old, but his game was incredibly raw, and he had shown little to indicate a breakout season was in the making heading into the 2014 season.
Pitching at the Single-A level a year ago, the right-hander went 5-11 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.477 WHIP, though he did record 127 strikeouts in 111 innings of work.
Meniscus surgery first on his left knee, and later his right knee, cost him roughly two months this season, and if he can stay healthy in 2015, he could move quickly through the upper minors.
CF Dalton Pompey, Toronto Blue Jays
5 of 10
Born: Dec. 11, 1992 (21 years old)
Acquired: 2010 draft (16-486)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A+ | 70 | 276 | .319/.397/.471 | 88 | 24 (6) | 34 | 49 | 29 |
| AA | 31 | 112 | .295/.378/.473 | 33 | 11 (3) | 12 | 20 | 8 |
| AAA | 12 | 53 | .358/.393/.453 | 19 | 5 (0) | 5 | 15 | 6 |
| Totals | 113 | 441 | .318/.392/.469 | 140 | 40 (9) | 51 | 84 | 43 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 17 TOR prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: No. 19 TOR prospect
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
My pick for Breakout Prospect of the Year is Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, who started the season as a fringe prospect in the lower minors and will finish it on the major league roster.
A 16th-round pick out of Canada in 2010, Pompey hit .261/.358/.394 with 37 extra-base hits and 38 steals in a full season with Single-A Lansing in 2013, which was enough to at least put him on the prospect radar.
Few would have predicted the speedy outfielder would enjoy the type of meteoric rise he did this season, though, as he earned a spot on the World Team in the Futures Game and impressed enough in the high minors to get the call when rosters expanded in September.
With incumbent center fielder Colby Rasmus headed for free agency, Pompey could have a legitimate chance at winning an everyday job next spring.
2B Robert Refsnyder, New York Yankees
6 of 10Born: March 26, 1991 (23 years old)
Acquired: 2012 draft (5-187)
2014 Minor League Stats
| AA | 60 | 228 | .342/.385/.548 | 78 | 30 (6) | 30 | 35 | 5 |
| AAA | 77 | 287 | .300/.389/.456 | 86 | 28 (8) | 33 | 47 | 4 |
| Totals | 137 | 515 | .318/.387/.497 | 164 | 58 (14) | 63 | 82 | 9 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 28 NYY prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: NR
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
Rob Refsnyder helped lead the University of Arizona to an NCAA title in 2012, hitting .364/.453/.562 and claiming Most Outstanding Player at the College World Series.
The Yankees made the outfielder a fifth-round selection that June and shifted him to second base to open his first full pro season in 2013.
His numbers were solid, most notably his plate discipline, as he hit .293/.413/.413 with 41 extra-base hits between Single-A and High-A, but solid numbers were to be expected as a college player in the lower minors.
He proved he was for real with an impressive showing this year, though, emerging as one of the top second base prospects in all of baseball. His defense still needs some work, but he's arguably the best pure hitter in the Yankees system, and he should challenge for the everyday second base job next season.
SP Adrian Sampson, Pittsburgh Pirates
7 of 10Born: Oct. 7, 1991 (22 years old)
Acquired: 2012 draft (5-166)
2014 Minor League Stats
| AA | 24 | 148.0 | 10-5 | 2.55 | 1.047 | 1.8 | 6.0 |
| AAA | 4 | 19.0 | 1-1 | 6.16 | 1.895 | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| Totals | 28 | 167.0 | 11-6 | 2.96 | 1.144 | 2.0 | 5.9 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 27 PIT prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: NR
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates system was already loaded with pitching prospects entering the season, highlighted by Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham, and now you can add Adrian Sampson to that list after a breakout season.
A fifth-round pick out of Bellevue Community College in 2012, Sampson opened his first full season at High-A Bradenton last year, and the results left a lot to be desired.
All told, the right-hander went 5-8 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 24 starts, but he finished the year strong and the Pirates opted to bump him up to Double-A to open the 2014 season.
He responded with a breakout season, finishing third in Eastern League Pitcher of the Year voting, behind a pair of Boston Red Sox top prospects in Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. His ceiling is a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but he's come a long way in the past calendar year.
SP Luis Severino, New York Yankees
8 of 10
Born: Feb. 20, 1994 (20 years old)
Acquired: 2012 IFA (Dominican Republic)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A | 14 | 67.2 | 3-2 | 2.79 | 1.138 | 2.0 | 9.3 |
| A+ | 4 | 20.2 | 1-1 | 1.31 | 0.823 | 2.6 | 12.2 |
| AA | 6 | 25.0 | 2-2 | 2.52 | 1.040 | 2.2 | 10.4 |
| Totals | 24 | 113.1 | 6-5 | 2.46 | 1.059 | 2.1 | 10.1 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 9 NYY prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: No. 10 NYY prospect
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): No. 9 NYY prospect
Prospect Overview
Luis Severino was at least on the prospect radar entering the season, cracking the Yankees' top 10 prospects in all three of the above-referenced lists, but he was still a fairly unknown prospect with a small sample size as a pro.
The right-hander made his stateside debut last year, going 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.068 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 44 innings of work.
That earned him a shot at his first taste of full-season ball, and he made the most of the opportunity, earning a place on the World Team in the Futures Game and earning a pair of promotions to finish the year with six strong starts in Double-A.
He'll give catcher Gary Sanchez a run for the organization's No. 1 prospect spot heading into next season, and while the team won't rush him, he's proven capable every step of the way so far in his minor league career.
SP Nick Tropeano, Houston Astros
9 of 10Born: Aug. 27, 1990 (24 years old)
Acquired: 2011 draft (5-160)
2014 Minor League Stats
| AAA | 23/20 | 124.2 | 9-5 | 3.03 | 0.987 | 2.4 | 8.7 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: No. 18 HOU prospect
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: No. 17 HOU prospect
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): No. 14 HOU prospect
Prospect Overview
A fifth-round selection out of Stony Brook in 2011, Nick Tropeano has quietly emerged as perhaps the most big league-ready pitching prospect in the Astros' system.
The right-hander had a nice 2012 season, going 12-7 with a 3.02 ERA and an organization-best 166 strikeouts in 158 innings of work between High-A and Double-A.
He took a step backwards in 2013, though, as he was 7-10 with a 4.11 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 133.2 innings during a full season at Double-A. That was enough to keep him on the prospect fringe and well behind the Astros' high-profile pitching prospects.
An improved slider, paired with his already-plus fastball/changeup combination, resulted in a breakout season, as he won the Pacific Coast League ERA title with a 3.03 mark. That earned him a September call-up, and the former fringe prospect could be contending for a rotation spot next spring.
SP Jen-Ho Tseng, Chicago Cubs
10 of 10
Born: Oct. 3, 1994 (19 years old)
Acquired: 2013 IFA (Taiwan)
2014 Minor League Stats
| A | 19/17 | 105.0 | 6-1 | 2.40 | 0.867 | 1.3 | 7.3 |
Preseason Prospect Ranks
- Baseball America Handbook: NR
- MLB.com Prospect Watch: NR
- Minor League Ball (Sickels): NR
Prospect Overview
Jen-Ho Tseng was undoubtedly the fastest-rising prospect in a loaded Chicago Cubs system that spent plenty of time in the headlines this season.
The 19-year-old Taiwanese right-hander was signed to a $1.625 million bonus as part of a big international prospect class for the Cubs last year, and in his first pro season, he quickly emerged as one of the team's top pitching prospects.
He first made a name for himself pitching for the Chinese Taipei team as a high schooler in the last World Baseball Classic, and he looked like a man among boys in a full season at the Single-A level this year.
The right-hander has an advanced feel for pitching and a fastball/curveball/changeup combination that should play well in the starting rotation. The organization was careful not to push him this season, but he could move quickly starting next year, and his floor looks to be very high at this point in his career.
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