10 Crucial MLB Players Who Will Decide September Pennant Race Outcomes
As MLB pennant races reach their boiling point around the league, a handful of players on each team can be pointed to as potential X-factors for one reason or another.
Many of those key players are the team's high-profile superstars, as this is the time when they earn their big contracts, but they are not the only ones counted on to make an impact down the stretch.
The following list of players won't feature any superstars. It is instead a collection of guys capable of stepping up and pushing their respective teams over the top in the race to reach the postseason.
So with that said, here are 10 crucial players who will help decide September pennant race outcomes.
1B Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals had their best month of the season in August, going 19-10 to move into a tie with the Detroit Tigers for first place in the AL Central.
An improved offensive attack was a big reason for their success, as they averaged 4.41 runs per game for the month, and that was all without Eric Hosmer.
The first baseman missed the entire month with a stress fracture in his right hand, with Billy Butler moving to first base and waiver acquisition Josh Willingham seeing the bulk of the at-bats at designated hitter.
It may seem like the team was fine without him, but with both Butler and Alex Gordon struggling so far this month, he could be a real difference-maker.
The pitching has been a strength all season, both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, so the offense will be the deciding factor in whether the Royals can reach the playoffs for the first time since 1985.
Hosmer is 8-for-28 since returning, including a three-hit game Monday. With the team averaging just 2.75 runs per game so far this month, the offense has to pick it back up.
1B/DH Kendrys Morales, Seattle Mariners
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It's been a whirlwind season for Kendrys Morales, and it all started when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Seattle Mariners to kick off the offseason.
Morales hit .277/.336/.449 with 34 doubles, 23 home runs and 80 RBI for the Mariners in 2013 and opted to pursue greener pastures rather than accepting the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer to stay in Seattle.
Instead, he found little interest on the free-agent market, as no one was willing to give up a draft pick to add the defensively limited Morales.
He finally found a home shortly after the June draft, when it no longer cost a draft pick to sign him, as he agreed to a pro-rated $12 million deal with the Minnesota Twins. He was flipped at the deadline, though, rejoining the Mariners.
Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager have carried the Seattle offense for much of the season, and they continue to produce at a high level, but the Mariners need someone else to step up if they are going to make a serious run at a title.
With a rotation anchored by Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma and the best bullpen in baseball, it will be up to the offense to produce down the stretch, and Morales is one player who could make a significant impact if he gets hot.
1B/OF Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics
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A first-time All-Star this season thanks to an .878 OPS with 21 home runs and 66 RBI at the break, Brandon Moss was as much a part of the Oakland Athletics' first-half success as anyone on the roster.
The team averaged an impressive 5.00 runs per game prior to the trade deadline, but that number has plummeted to just 3.78 runs per game since the beginning of August.
That has led many to blame the trade of Yoenis Cespedes for the team's offensive struggles, and while that no doubt played a role, it's far from the only factor.
Several players still on the roster have seen their production plummet, and chief among them is Moss, who is hitting just .152/.307/.196 with zero home runs and six RBI in 92 at-bats since the deadline.
He has lost playing time to Nate Freiman and Adam Dunn as a result, and once Stephen Vogt returns from a sprained ankle, Moss could see his at-bats cut down even further unless he can turn things around quickly.
Moss has quietly been one of the most productive sluggers in baseball since the start of the 2012 season, as his 74 home runs are tied for 17th most in the majors, and a return to form could be the shot in the arm Oakland's offense so desperately needs.
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SP Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants paid a steep price to acquire Jake Peavy at the trade deadline, shipping pitching prospects Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree to the Boston Red Sox to land the 33-year-old right-hander.
That seemed like too much for a pitcher with a 4.72 ERA and 4.79 FIP through his first 20 starts, but a return to the NL West to be reunited with manager Bruce Bochy has done wonders for the former NL Cy Young winner.
With Matt Cain lost for the season to a right elbow surgery to remove bone chips, someone needed to step up for the Giants to turn things around, and Peavy has been that guy.
He's gone 4-1 with a 1.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his last five starts, teaming with Madison Bumgarner to give the team a dominant one-two punch atop the rotation.
Tim Hudson (10 GS, 2-4, 3.62 ERA) and Ryan Vogelsong (9 GS, 3-3, 4.47 ERA) have been inconsistent in the second half, and the struggling Tim Lincecum has been bumped to the bullpen, so the performance of Peavy as the team's second front-line arm becomes that much more important.
Continued dominance from Peavy could be enough for the Giants to catch the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title, but if nothing else, they are in good position to claim one of the wild-card spots.
SP Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
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Rick Porcello entered 2014 with five big league seasons and 61 career wins under his belt, all before his age-25 season, but he was widely considered as the weak link of the Detroit Tigers rotation over the past few seasons.
A 3.53 FIP and a career-best 7.2 K/9 mark in 2013 were telling signs of a potential breakout season to come in 2014, and he delivered on that with a terrific first half.
The right-hander was 12-5 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a pair of shutouts in 18 starts before the All-Star break, and he has managed to keep things going with a strong second half.
He's 15-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 183 innings of work this season, and his emergence coupled with the deadline acquisition of David Price had the Tigers' rotation looking like something special heading into the stretch run.
However, that rotation has not lived up to expectations to this point, and that's a big reason why the team is trailing the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central race.
Porcello has allowed 21 hits and 12 runs (eight earned) in 9.2 innings of work over his last two starts, posting back-to-back losses in the process. Detroit needs him as much as anyone to get back to dominating here in September.
CF Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Heading into the month of August, outfielder Yasiel Puig was putting up elite-level numbers in his second big league season, hitting .319/.406/.552 with 30 doubles, 13 home runs and 55 RBI, while carrying a banged-up Dodgers offense.
He's hitting just .210/.304/.235 with zero home runs and five RBI in 119 at-bats since the beginning of August, though, and the Dodgers have recently bumped him down to the lower half of the lineup as a result.
"Yas is probably hitting where he should be hitting right now, I think it's a place where you're not putting extra pressure on him," manager Don Mattingly told journalist Dan Arritt, via ESPNLosAngeles.com. "Who do you want the extra at-bat going to? Right now, that's not necessarily Yasiel."
Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez have both produced more over the past month, so that has helped offset Puig's struggles. But they remain a serious concern.
The Dodgers have a legitimate shot at a World Series title, and they need their offense firing on all cylinders to accomplish that.
The bump down in the lineup may be exactly what Puig needs to get his bat back on track. If he can return to his first half performance, it would go a long way in helping the Dodgers lock down the NL West title.
SP Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels
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It looked as though the Los Angeles Angels' title hopes were dealt a significant blow when ace Garrett Richards was lost for the season to a knee injury, but the team has seemingly rallied around it instead.
Los Angeles has gone 13-5 since he went down, extending its lead in the AL West from two games to eight games in the process. Now, the Angels have their sights set on the best record in the league and home-field advantage.
With Richards down, someone had to step up in the rotation, and that someone has been rookie right-hander Matt Shoemaker.
The 27-year-old joined the rotation full time following the All-Star break, and he's gone 7-2 with a 2.02 ERA in nine second-half starts.
All told, he's 14-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 25 games (18 starts) on the season, and if it were not for the ridiculous season Jose Abreu is having, Shoemaker would be a prime candidate for AL Rookie of the Year.
The title of staff ace still falls to veteran Jered Weaver, who is 16-8 with a 3.58 ERA on the year, but it's Shoemaker who will be the X-factor for a rotation that has been pointed to as a potential weakness all season.
SP Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
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Last year's surprise postseason hero, Michael Wacha was expected to be a breakout star in his first full season in the majors.
He delivered on that promise through his first 15 starts, going 5-5 with a 2.79 ERA as a solid No. 2 option behind Adam Wainwright, but a shoulder injury cost him pretty much the entire summer. He missed 68 games total, returning on Sept. 3.
That injury no doubt played a role in the team's decision to acquire John Lackey and Justin Masterson at the deadline, and while Lackey has been good, Masterson has flopped. The staff as a whole would certainly benefit from a healthy Wacha.
The 23-year-old went three innings in his first start back last Thursday, allowing three hits and one run. However, he was shelled Tuesday night for six hits and six runs (five earned) in his second start, which was against the Reds.
Still, the Cardinals seem to be optimistic that he can make a difference down the stretch, and he is no doubt still shaking off the rust.
"His resume speaks for itself," general manager John Mozeliak said to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "When he was throwing, he could be dominant. And frankly, he's very fresh."
The Cardinals have overtaken the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the NL Central with a strong showing over the past week-plus, and an improved offensive attack has certainly helped. Big picture, though: This team will lean on its pitching, and Wacha is a big part of that.
2B Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates
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A case can be made for both Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison being the most valuable player on the Pittsburgh Pirates roster this season, but second baseman Neil Walker may be their most important player down the stretch.
The 28-year-old is having a very good season at the plate, hitting .276/.349/.462 with 19 home runs and 64 RBI in what has been the best all-around offensive season of his career.
It's his role hitting in the cleanup spot behind the aforementioned McCutchen that makes him so important, though, as he has to continue hitting to protect the reigning NL MVP.
McCutchen hit .318/.453/.541 with 10 extra-base hits in the month of September last year to lock down MVP honors, and he's already off to a hot start this September with a .343 average and .938 OPS through his first seven games.
Walker is not far behind, with a .323 average and a .981 OPS, and as long as he keeps hitting, opposing pitchers will be forced to pitch to McCutchen.
The Pirates starting rotation has really rounded into form in the second half, led by a resurgent Francisco Liriano, but the offense has to keep producing if the Pirates are going to reach the postseason. A productive Walker out of the cleanup spot is the key to that.
SP Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
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The Braves' rotation was one of the biggest surprises of the first month of the season, as it was without Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor but managed to put up some of the best numbers of any staff in the game.
The surprise production of Aaron Harang, the late signing of Ervin Santana and a big sophomore season from Julio Teheran have all helped keep things together, but it's Alex Wood who has been leading the rotation down the stretch.
The 23-year-old split his rookie season in 2013 between the rotation and bullpen, going 3-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 31 games (11 starts) and proving he was capable of being an asset regardless of what role he fills.
He bounced back and forth again this season over the first two-plus months of the season before finally joining the rotation full time on June 25 when Gavin Floyd was lost for the year.
The southpaw is currently riding a streak of eight straight quality starts, going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .201 opponents' batting average over that span.
With Harang (1-4, 5.36 ERA), Teheran (3-4, 4.12 ERA) and Santana (4-2, 4.13 ERA) all falling off since the beginning of August, the contributions of Wood have become that much more important.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and accurate through Tuesday, Sept. 9.
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