Roger Federer Missed Best Chance He'll Ever Have to Capture 18th Grand Slam

With his semifinal defeat to Marin Cilic at the 2014 U.S. Open, Roger Federer surrendered what will surely be his best shot at winning an 18th Grand Slam title and putting even more distance between himself and Pete Sampras.

Cilic went on to beat Kei Nishikori in the final, somewhat softening the blow for Federer. However, he must be kicking himself having let a golden opportunity slip through his fingertips.

Mike Groll/Associated Press

Winning a major tournament isn't easy. With that said, Federer had about as straightforward a path to the final as he could've possibly wished for at the U.S. Open. The highest-seeded player he would've had to beat to win the title was Nishikori (10th). Rafael Nadal was out with a wrist injury. Nishikori beat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, eliminating Federer's top remaining threat.

The stars aren't going to align like that again.

To say that Monday's final was a changing of the guard in men's tennis wouldn't be entirely accurate. Djokovic, Federer and Nadal aren't going to disappear anytime soon.

However, the match may be a sign of things to come. Gradually, the pendulum will shift to the younger stars like Cilic, Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic.

Bleacher Report's Lindsay Gibbs wrote that Cilic's win opens the door for more stars to break the established order:

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For others wanting to follow in his footsteps, Cilic's created a guide to glory—thoroughly prepare, and then believe that your best is good enough when the time comes. There was a time when the Big Four was so dominant that a blueprint like that wasn't enough, but that's not the case anymore.

For Cilic, it was painstakingly simple in the end. An opportunity presented itself, and he seized the moment. Just like that, there's a new Grand Slam champion in men's tennis.

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For the Win's Chris Chase also made the point that the aura of invincibility the top stars once held over the rest of the world is now gone:

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But Cilic-Nishikori will make the most news for who’s not there. Federer, who had the golden opportunity but can’t be down about missing it. He never had a chance against Cilic, who was the better player on Saturday. Djokovic, who failed to capitalize on his Wimbledon title and instead ends his Slam season with yet another disappointment. Nadal, the 14-time champion nipping at Federer’s heels but is aging too quickly. They’ll surely be back in Grand Slam finals, probably starting at the 2015 Australian Open, but their undisputed reign has officially come to end in 2014. It started with Stan Wawrinka’s win over Nadal in Melbourne and ends with Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori playing on the biggest stage in the game.

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The competition smells blood in the water, especially with regard to Federer.

We all know that the end will come for the Swiss star sooner or later. As well as he played in the second half of the ATP season, you have to wonder if he can keep up this pace. Don't forget that one year ago, he was coming off a second-round exit at Wimbledon and fourth-round departure at the U.S. Open.

He was largely written off as a Grand Slam threat.

Few sports are as unforgiving for aging stars than tennis. Players don't so much gradually fade into retirement as collapse in on themselves and become black holes.

At 33 years old, Federer is the same age as Lleyton Hewitt and a year younger than Marat Safin and Juan Carlos Ferrero. Andy Roddick is almost two years younger. All four of those guys are former major winners, and all but Hewitt have retired. Hewitt's continuing to hang on, but he hasn't reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal since 2009.

Although none was as talented as Federer, they all faced steep declines once they hit their late 20s or early 30s. Their career trajectories are in line with many before them as well.

Sampras walked away from the game at 32, which also puts things in perspective.

Something Federer said after his loss to Cilic really resonates. Prior to the U.S. Open, Federer had never lost to Cilic in five matches. In Flushing, New York, Cilic was a better version of himself than Federer had ever seen.

"I think he was quite erratic before, especially from the baseline," the Swiss said, per The New York Times' Harvey Araton.

That's what happens in the Darwinian world of tennis. The old either adapt, or they become the next victim in the circle of life. The younger only become stronger.

Federer won't become roadkill just yet, but his days of being at the top of the food chain might be well and truly over.