Is It Time to Believe in Dallas Braden?

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Even though the Oakland Athletics (37-49) have endured a rough first half of the season, it doesn’t necessarily mean they lack impact fantasy talent for your fantasy squad.  Despite not having true fantasy studs, they still have players who will definitely influence fantasy lineups in baseball’s second half.

One of the constants throughout Oakland’s sub-par first half has been Dallas Braden.  Arguments could have certainly been made in favor of Braden being Oakland’s All-Star representative instead of Andrew Bailey.  That’s how good he’s been.

Owned in just 11.4 percent of ESPN leagues, 69 percent of CBS leagues, and 28 percent of Yahoo! leagues, Braden (who is due to face the Angels tonight) could be baseball’s most underrated pitcher of the first half. 

I can’t say why he’s owned in such a high percentage of CBS leagues, but for a guy who went undrafted in many leagues this season, he’s been a steal.  Braden could also be the biggest coup for fantasy owners looking for a steady pitcher in the second half.

With a 7-7 record, Braden is not the pitcher to look for if you’re in dire need of wins.  But even with a mediocre record, Braden has a solid 3.12 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP.  He’s pitched 112.1 innings and given up 111 hits.  His strikeouts this year are nothing to write home about, as he has 73 on the season, resulting in a K/9 of 5.85.  However, I bet many owners out there didn’t realize how good Braden’s been.

If you’re skeptical, as I was, let me show you why Braden is no first-half wonder.  In the minors, Braden threw 346.2 innings and gave up 310 hits. His ERA, although not as low as a premiere prospect, was a very good 3.30.  His WHIP was 1.16, as well.   He had 390 strikeouts, a K/9 of 10.1, and a 2.4 BB/9 rate.  Just looking at those minor league totals, you can tell this guy really does have considerable upside.

Up until this year, Braden’s minor league totals haven’t really translated well to the majors.  His first two stints (this year being his third) weren’t nearly as impressive as this year has been.  In 256.1 innings in the major leagues, Braden has a 4.42 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.  He’s given up 279 hits and only struck out 169 (K/9 of 5.9). 

His first time up in the big leagues, in 2007, was dreadful—6.72 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 72 innings.  Those numbers improved considerably last season—4.14 ERA and 1.42 WHIP—compared to even better rates this season.  This shows that Braden has made adjustments and is learning how to oppose big league hitters.

The veteran of the A’s staff at only 25 years old, Braden’s statistical rates show that he’s not due for much of a decline in numbers at all in the second half.  His BABIP of .299 is right around the league average.  His strand-rate of 75 percent is not all that high, either.  Additionally, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.40 compared to his real ERA of 3.12 is not much different.  Realistically we could expect his ERA to regress to that rate, but there isn’t a real difference between the two.

Braden has solidified his pitching this season with a meager 0.56 HR/9 rate, which is quite less than his 0.8 career (minor and major) total.  A slight increase in the second half could be expected, but I wouldn’t call it impossible for him to maintain a low rate for the rest of the season.

I’d also expect him to increase the strikeout totals, which sit at a 5.85 K/9 rate this season.  At this point in the season, you wouldn’t own Braden for his strikeout prowess, but an improvement is attainable by just looking at his minor league K-rate of 10.1.  I’d expect his strikeout numbers to improve in the second half.

If these numbers aren’t enough, consider this: Braden has given up more than three earned runs just once in his 18 starts this season.  Over his last eight starts, he hasn’t given up more than two.  And he’s played the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays.  Talk about consistency.

Dallas Braden isn’t flashy.  He doesn’t throw incredibly hard, and he doesn’t play for the best team.  But he does put up fantasy numbers, and that’s what you need at this point in the season.

What do you guys think?  Will you take a chance on him?