Power Ranking the Top 20 Men's Players After the 2014 US Open
The 2014 U.S. Open final was a lopsided and forgettable competition, as Marin Cilic defeated Kei Nishikori to cap off his surprising title. But it was an entertaining fortnight that featured more twists and turns than an Agatha Christie novel.
It also shook up the ATP Rankings and portends even more shifting in the near future. Yes, old stars like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are still at the top of the accumulative leaderboard, but younger players have officially crashed the party with promises to one day own the entire landscape.
The following slides are a power ranking of the top 20 players in tennis according to their bodies of work in 2014 and how they currently rate as contenders. A player like Cilic gets extra consideration in our countdown for winning one of the four Grand Slam events, which certainly trumps the consistent efforts of a player like David Ferrer.
This is how we rate the stars right now.
20-16. Dolgopolov, Robredo, Isner, Kohlschreiber, Anderson
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20. Alexandr Dolgopolov: It's disappointing not to see him play the U.S. Open series, but he must now look to come back after a knee injury. He could have possibly done some damage at the U.S. Open with his aggressiveness on hard courts.
19. Tommy Robredo: He had a very nice third-round win over Nick Kyrgios and good effort a round later in falling to Stanislas Wawrinka in four sets. He has shown a veteran's growth with solid success on hard courts to augment his clay-court expertise.
18. John Isner: If only he could draw someone other than Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round. Two years in a row at the U.S. Open, he has lost to the German in four sets. The irony is that Isner must win his tiebreakers, but the one set without a tiebreaker was the one he won, 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(4).
17. Philipp Kohlschreiber: He's always a solid mid-tournament bet on fast surfaces but bowed out rather meekly to Novak Djokovic in the fourth round.
16. Kevin Anderson: He polished off Jerzy Janowicz but lost in four sets to Marin Cilic. It's hard to see Anderson pushing into the top 10, but he should like the faster courts and indoor season to come.
15-11. Bautista Agut, Monfils, Gulbis, Ferrer, Tsonga
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15. Roberto Bautista Agut: He has had a very surprising season that continued to see him play respectable tennis on hard courts. He arrived at the fourth round before falling to Roger Federer.
14. Gael Monfils: Always a dynamic player, Monfils has to feel bittersweet about his quarterfinals run at the U.S. Open. He couldn't convert two match points against Federer and missed his opportunity to take on Marin Cilic in the semifinals. He also had an ankle scare in the second set that underscores part of the concerns about Monfils being a healthy, consistent player worthy of the top 10.
13. Ernests Gulbis: It's tough to lose a two-sets lead, especially to a younger, rising star (Dominic Thiem) who may blow past him in a year or two. Both players have great tennis talent, but there are always questions about Gulbis' mentality.
12. David Ferrer: He is ranked No. 5, but Ferrer does not feel like a top-10 threat. Losing to Gilles Simon in the third round is another crack in his foundation of consistency.
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Just when the talented Frenchman became a U.S. Open contender by winning the Canada Open, he slipped away. Cincinnati was a bust, and his fourth-round sweep at New York by Andy Murray is enough for us to boot him out of the top 10.
10. Tomas Berdych
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ATP Ranking: 6
I like to watch Tomas Berdych's groundstrokes. His fluid manners and effortless power make him a textbook player. Add in his 6'5" height, underrated footwork and ability to pick off some big matches, and he has had a very good career.
But should there have been more? Granted, he could not topple his contemporary legends—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic—but he was good enough to threaten them and tantalize tennis fans with his potential.
Which is why it would have been nice to see Berdych be the one to win the U.S. Open during a tournament that proved to be wide open. While he had his chance, and it was obliterated in straight-sets loss to Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals, we can't help but to wish that he could end his career with just one Grand Slam trophy someday.
It could still happen, but other younger faces are arriving.
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9. Andy Murray
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ATP Ranking: 11
Andy Murray can win at least one or two more Grand Slam titles. His resume and talent are unquestionable, and he is a true tennis fighter, but time will tell if he can put together his best form and regain his big-match confidence.
There was certainly no shame in losing a hard-fought quarterfinals match to Novak Djokovic, but that will not sit well with Murray. The difference in holding the biggest trophies in tennis is winning those matches.
Look for Murray to make a good charge at Shanghai, Paris and the indoors season. He could get into the WTF tournament at London and maybe flex his game a bit to announce better things ahead in 2015.
8. Grigor Dimitrov
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ATP Ranking: 10
His talent is undeniable, but that doesn't mean Grigor Dimitrov is destined to win a major. He has lapses in concentration at times, but he is able to fight through it most of the time to create some brilliant tennis.
Maybe his third-round win over tough David Goffin is an illustration of this. Dimitrov was blanked (bageled) 6-0 in the first set, but turned things around to sweep the next three. Unfortunately, he was not able to repeat this result, instead folding quickly to Gael Monfils in the fourth round.
We might have been robbed of Dimitrov vs. Roger Federer, but the quarterfinal turned out to be a thriller without Dimitrov.
Is he ready? We keep asking this, and for the first time I'm willing to put Milos Raonic ahead of him, even though I like Dimitrov's game a lot better. Dimitrov is in the mix for the Race to London, but he will need to finish strong in 2014.
7. Milos Raonic
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ATP Ranking: 7
He's getting closer. While the aces keep piling up, Milos Raonic has made modest improvements with his footwork and groundstrokes, though he will never have Stefan Edberg's grace or timing in coming to the net.
Raonic defeated Kei Nishikori in Wimbledon's fourth round, but this time the Japanese player ousted him in the fourth round. He didn't serve quite as efficiently and could not force a single break point in the final two sets. In the end, Nishikori's stamina and superior groundstrokes kept the big Canadian at bay.
Look for Raonic to bounce back. He has to feel that had he got by Nishikori, he could have possibly been playing for the U.S. Open title. The field of contenders keeps widening.
6. Kei Nishikori
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ATP Ranking: 8
He was overpowered in the U.S. Open final, but Kei Nishikori proved a few things. First, he has become a better offensive player in 2014, hitting with better power and early initiative. Second, he proved that he has the stamina and fitness to endure two grueling weeks of tennis. Third, he beat top stars, highlighted by his victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
So while his power shortage to Cilic will be the primary way his loss is explained, it's important to remember that he did defeat big-serving Milos Raonic and hard-hitting Stanislas Wawrinka. He deserves his rise toward the best few players in the world.
It was also a satisfying validation of his ability to play great on clay and hard courts. In the spring, he captured the Barcelona Open and finished runner-up at Madrid to Rafael Nadal, perhaps halted only by an injury that forced him out of his lead in the latter.
Now Nishikori will be riding high for the Asian swing at Beijing, Japan and Shanghai. He's a good bet to be one of the eight qualifiers for the WTF year-end tournament in London.
5. Marin Cilic
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ATP Ranking: 9
There is nothing to diminish about Marin Cilic's 2014 U.S. Open trophy. Kevin Anderson took one set off him in the third round, and Gilles Simon stretched him to five sets one round later. And then Cilic ripped through Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori in straight sets.
He earns no worse than the No. 5 ranking, whether someone thinks he caught lightning in a bottle or questions if he will win future majors. And if this is indeed his career highlight, his life has already changed. He has risen above other second-tier stars who would love to be in his place right now.
There was more than his impressive serve and power. He was nearly flawless from the baseline when he had to be and either won or eliminated long rallies. It was like watching Marat Safin dump Pete Sampras in the 2000 U.S. Open final.
No doubt Cilic's self-belief has now blasted out of the stratosphere, but this is not a fluke. He has steadily climbed toward the top 10 all year, needing only some big match wins over the very best. Check those off the list.
Once again, Cilic is your 2014 U.S. Open champion.
4. Stanislas Wawrinka
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ATP Ranking: 4
Maybe Wawrinka's Australian Open title set the bar of expectations a little high, but the Swiss star still navigated through the pressures, highs and lows of battling deep for some of the best titles in tennis. He deserves to stay at No. 4, despite watching a newcomer win a major.
In the end, his quarterfinals appearance was still a good follow-up to last year's semifinal berth, but he could not hold off Kei Nishikori's unbelievable will to win 10 sets in two matches against two top-10 players.
Wawrinka has already qualified for London's WTF year-end tournament, and he could very well take home more Masters tournaments in the future and perhaps win another major. When he is able to play in the zone, rearing back and firing shots, it's a beautiful sight.
3. Rafael Nadal
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ATP Ranking: 2
Tennis is not the same without Rafael Nadal. He is the tide that lifts all boats, bringing out the best in rivals like Novak Djokovic. We missed his fight, flamboyance and fearsome tennis. We look forward to his return.
But I'm not entirely convinced he will play again in 2014, which is why I'm listing him behind the more consistent Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. He has a wrist injury but seems more likely to come back on his terms, when he knows he can win on his best surfaces.
So the Nadal watch continues. When will he play again? We've been down that road before, and we will travel it at least a few more times as he approaches his 30s.
2. Roger Federer
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ATP Ranking: 3
Federer has already earned more points in 2014 than Rafael Nadal, and he is closing in on the No. 2 ranking altogether. Of course, he would gladly trade points for a major, and this is the hard part in judging the success of his season.
It's also premature to declare that Federer just lost his last chance at an 18th major. Had he defeated Cilic, the headlines would have been quite different. One match is not enough to judge the next couple of years, and there will still be Wimbledon if not another bid for the Australian Open.
As the modern-day legends age, we are entering a transitional era that will include more younger contenders but still be heavily seasoned with beloved stars like Federer, who will continue to fight for and win majors.
1. Novak Djokovic
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ATP Ranking: 1
There is always a familiar ring to appraising the successes and near misses of Novak Djokovic. The World No. 1 is a worthy champion—a holder of seven majors and near dominance on every surface. But winning only one major in each of three successive years might be considered a disappointment, depending upon your frame of reference.
It's also increasingly likely that he will not have another spell of dominance like 2011. While he is a great bet to pick off a few more majors, the universe of the ATP is expanding rapidly, which means more confident adversaries with younger legs. The draws will be deeper, and Djokovic's street-fight style may suffer through the tolls of stringing together too many tough matches. He can do it, of course, but it's not getting any easier.
For the next two months, he is the heavy favorite to win the year-end No. 1 ranking for the third time in four years. But if he loses early in the big tournaments he must defend, it's possible that Roger Federer (who did not win a major in 2014) could actually overtake him.
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