US Open Tennis 2014 Men's Final: Kei Nishikori vs. Marin Cilic Predictions

It's not the U.S. Open Men's Final ticket-holders were expecting. In a stunning turn of events on Saturday, Kei Nishikori upset No. 1 Novak Djokovic and not long after, Marin Cilic defeated five-time champion Roger Federer in straight sets to advance to the Grand Slam final.  

The events of the men's semifinal made history in multiple ways. As Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim pointed out, this will be the first Major final in nearly a decade without Federer, Djokovic or Rafael Nadal competing. That's 34 grand slam finals featuring at least one member of the "Big Four," which includes Andy Murray, per Simon Briggs of The Telegraph. 

Additionally, Nishikori, who was born in Japan, becomes the first Asian tennis player to advance to the U.S. Open Grand Slam singles final (his coach Michael Chang, who competed in the 1996 final, was born in New Jersey). 

Saturday marked Cilic's first-ever win over Federer, and it was on the biggest of stages. As these two underdogs—No. 14 seed Cilic and No. 10 seed Nishikori—prepare to compete in each of their first major final, the question becomes who will emerge with his first title on Monday. 

The Case for Kei Nishikori

Mike Groll/Associated Press

Nishikori heads into the final coming off a win over the No. 1 men's singles player in the world, which is no small accomplishment. Prior to advancing to the semifinal, he had to endure consecutive five-setters, but showed few signs of lethargy as he got to work defeating the Serb 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-3. 

The obstacles Nishikori overcame on his path to the final included having to beat fifth-seeded Milos Raonic in the fourth round, a match which took more than four hours. He then upset third-seeded Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka.

As Briggs noted, pulling off a five-set win on a hard court—let alone against the top player in the sport—is one of the toughest feats in tennis. 

Prior to Saturday's win, the furthest Nishikori had advanced was to the quarterfinals of the 2012 Australian Open. He had played Djokovic twice previously, falling to him in the second round of the 2010 French Open and upsetting him in 2011 in Switzerland.

Chang, his coach and a Grand Slam-winner who made a name for himself when he won the French Open at 17 in 1989, has been instrumental in Nishikori's success this year and will be invaluable in helping propel the 24-year-old to a title over Cilic. Chang became Nishikori's coach this season and his influence has been obvious. 

"Kei knows that I've been down the same road before, so he's not going to be worrying about whether he can trust his coach, and whether he can lean on me for advice," Chang told Mark Hodgkinson of Wimbledon.com. "Other coaches can’t offer that as they’ve never been there before."

Disappointing injuries kept Nishikori from competing in the U.S. Open in the past, including a right elbow in 2009. This year, he had a cyst removed from his foot at the beginning of August that left him questionable for the tournament, but he came back to win and then some. 

The Case for Marin Cilic

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Federer didn't play poorly Saturday, with 28 winners to 17 unforced errors, but Cilic was better. His game was error-free and his straight-sets win, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, included three aces in the final game. 

The Croatian had never beaten Federer, but he overpowered him in the semifinal.

As Nishikori can cite coach Chang's influence for his recent level of play, so too can Cilic, who is coached by fellow Croat Goran Ivanisevic, whom he counts as one of his idols. The 2001 Wimbledon champion became Cilic's coach last year, helping him through his four-month ban for a banned substance for which he tested positive.  

"I've always followed his career," Ivanisevic told David Cox of the New York Times in June. "I've always been there for him if he needed help. So when he asked me to coach him, I was happy."

Ivanisevic has been working with Cilic to use his size and strength to play more aggressively, and the results were on display for all to see in his systematic win over Federer. Nearly half of all points won by Cilic were straight winners, per The Changeover's Juan Jose Vallejo. 

Federer, whose path to the title this year was clear after Nadal dropped out and Murray exited early, hardly stood a chance. 

This wasn't Cilic's first notable U.S. Open upset, but it is by far his most high-profile. The Croatian defeated then-No. 2 Murray in the fourth round of the 2009 Open before Murray then defeated him in the semifinals of the 2010 Australian Open. 

Now, he is primed for his first Grand Slam win if he can defeat Nishikori. 

Final Prediction: Marin Cilic def. Kei Nishikori

At 6'6", Cilic plays a powerful game, while Nishikori will attempt to win off his agility and speed. 

Monday's final is a bit of a wild card, but it ultimately comes down to the prowess Cilic has demonstrated on his path there. While Nishikori had to endure back-to-back five-setters to reach the final and had to work to put away Djokovic, Cilic's victory over Federer was a thorough dismantling, in error-free straight sets. 

"To be able to play like this I never dreamed of and I think today was my best performance ever in my career," Cilic said Saturday, per Piers Newbery of BBC Sport. 

Cilic's power was evident in his three aces to serve out the victory. His sheer size advantage over the 5'10" Nishikori may be the moment the tennis world looks back on as the definitive turn toward a pattern of taller players in the sport. 

If he can apply the same lights-out playing he enacted on Federer Monday, Cilic looks to be the next U.S. Open men's singles champion.