US Open 2014 Men's Final: Kei Nishikori vs. Marin Cilic Preview and Prediction
This is the final that absolutely, positively nobody saw coming but here it is: Late on Monday afternoon, No. 10 Kei Nishikori will take on No. 14 Marin Cilic with the U.S. Open trophy on the line.
After an unprecedented era of dominance by the Big Four, there will be a maiden Grand Slam winner for the second time in 2014. This will also be the first time that a major final has been contested without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic since the 2005 Australian Open final, which was between two former No. 1s, Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt.
In other words, you have to go back more than a decade to find a men's major final this shocking.
It should be a blast, though, because these guys didn't back their way into the final. Nishikori, 24, took out three top-five seeds in a row: No. 5 Milos Raonic, No. 3 Stan Wawrinka and then No. 1 Novak Djokovic. Cilic, 25, toppled No. 6 Tomas Berdych and No. 2 Roger Federer.
So get to know some fresh faces and get ready to watch some history on Monday. Here's what you need to know before this most unexpected matchup.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic have squared off seven times in their career, with Nishikori leading the head-to-head matchup, 5-2.
The Japanese superstar has actually won both matches that the two have played this year, winning 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of Brisbane to start the year and 6-1, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the clay-court tournament in Barcelona.
However, they've actually met at the U.S. Open twice in their careers, splitting those matches. Nishikori outlasted Cilic back in a brutal second-round match in 2010, 5-7, 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-1. Cilic got revenge in the third round of 2012, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3.
Since neither has played with a major final on the line, it's hard to take too much from past results, though.
How Nishikori Has Looked so Far at the US Open
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Nishikori has looked like a new man throughout this fortnight.
Known throughout his career for his elite talent but propensity for injuries, the 24-year-old transformed into the iron man in New York.
After sitting out for the three weeks before the tournament due to minor surgery on his foot to remove a cyst, he came into Flushing with only a couple of days of practice under his belt. But he won his first three matches without dropping a set, and then he took things to another level.
Nishikori took out back-to-back top-five seeds in the fourth round and quarterfinals in Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka. Both matches lasted late into the fifth set, and the match against Raonic ended at 2:26 a.m. ET, tying for the latest finish in U.S. Open history.
Then, in the semis, Nishikori took out No. 1 Novak Djokovic in an impressive four sets, standing strong in sweltering conditions.
"I tried to work on my body a lot this year," he told the press after the win over the Serb, via USOpen.org. "Even last year, too. But, you know, even at the tournaments I tried to do a lot of rehab training. Offseason, I tried to do a lot of training stuff, you know, more than tennis. You know, I feel like I'm getting stronger."
How Cilic Has Looked so Far at the US Open
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Marin Cilic has looked like a man who is finally living up to his potential at this U.S. Open.
While Nishikori has always had the talent but the physical fragility, Cilic has always been known for his mental fragility. The Croat has long been one to push the top players at the start of the match, only to collapse completely by the end.
Not this fortnight, though. Cilic benefited from a retirement by the tricky Marcos Baghdatis in the first round and then survived tight, physical matches against Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon in the third and fourth rounds.
But he showed his best tennis in the quarters and semis, defeating No. 6 Tomas Berdych and No. 2 Roger Federer without dropping a set. He was clutch when it counted, never faded in the matches and kept his opponents off-balance with a barrage of winners.
He's improved each match and officially looks like a man on a mission.
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Biggest X-Factors in the Final
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The Coaches
One of the fun subplots in this match is the battle of the coaches—Nishikori's coach Michael Chang vs. Cilic's coach Goran Ivanisevic, who are both 42. The two were rivals during their playing days, with Chang leading the head-to-head war, 6-5.
Both have one Slam to their name, with Chang winning the French Open at the beginning of his career and Ivanisevic winning Wimbledon at the end of his. We'll have to see who can get a second Slam—this time as a coach.
Nerves
Obviously, this is the first Slam final for both Nishikori and Cilic, and a lot will depend on who handles the occasion the best. Cilic has 11 titles to his name, while Nishikori only has five, but none of their prior experience will be comparable to a final on Arthur Ashe Stadium with a major title on the line. Particularly keep an eye on Cilic, who has been overwhelmed by occasions in the past.
Nishikori's Fitness
Fitness will be a factor for both guys, but it will be particularly crucial for Nishikori, who has exerted a lot more effort than Cilic to get to this point in the tournament. Though Nishikori has quieted many of his critics during this run, it's still hard to forget how injury-prone he has been throughout his career. Both will need to be healthy to keep the edge.
Nishikori Will Win If...
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If the match goes to five sets, Kei Nishikori will have the advantage.
While that might sound counterintuitive considering his injury issues and the miles he's racked up this tournament, it's the truth—he just doesn't lose in five-setters.
The world No. 11 is 4-0 in five-setters in this year and 10-2 in his career.
"I always love to play five sets," he told the press after his quarterfinal win, via USOpen.org. "I think I have good records for, you know, winning third or fifth sets. It's not like I love to play five sets, but I have a lot of confidence to play in the fifth. I get more concentration, and my tennis is getting better playing in the fourth or fifth sets."
Cilic Will Win If...
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Marin Cilic will win this match if he plays like he did against Roger Federer in the semis. Federer did not play a bad match; Cilic was just untouchable.
Chris Chase of USA Today sums up what a straightforward affair it was:
"Facing a big-serving, flat-hitting, tall opponent, the kind of player who’s traditionally given him trouble in Slams, Federer never got comfortable, failing to get a read on Cilic’s serves and barely mustering a fight. The 14th-seeded Croatian advanced to his first Grand Slam final with a shockingly easy 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win. The final game spoke volumes. Cilic, who had never played a bigger game in his life, opened with three aces and finished off Federer with an easy winner.
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Cilic had 43 winners to only 23 unforced errors in that match while hitting 13 aces and only one double fault. He completely took the racket out of Federer's hand.
If he can play the same brand of strike-first tennis and paint the lines the way he did in the semis, it's going to be a good day for the Croat on Monday afternoon.
Prediction
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This is something I never thought I'd say, but here it goes: I'm picking Marin Cilic to win the U.S. Open this year over Kei Nishikori.
Nishikori has had a phenomenal tournament and will put up a fight, but it's hard to look past the fact that he dealt with an incredibly off Novak Djokovic in the semis. Cilic, meanwhile, didn't need much help at all from Roger Federer.
Cilic's form in the semifinal was reminiscent of another surprise U.S. Open winner—Juan Martin del Potro back in 2009. With the booming forehand, powerful serve and surprisingly great court coverage and movement for a tall guy, the 6'6" Cilic is a nearly impossible guy to handle when he's playing his best.
So I'm picking Cilic in four sets.
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