Week 1 NFL Picks: Teams Most Likely to Cruise to Victory

It's hard to predict blowouts or huge victories in NFL matchups. These are professionals, after all, the best of the best even on the poorer teams. If nothing else, pride is at stake, and nobody likes being embarrassed.

The difference between the best teams and the worst ones is often smaller than you think. 

Still, every now and again a matchup presents itself that just feels like it will be really one-sided. Maybe a team's strengths align perfectly with their opponent's weaknesses. Maybe one team just has way more talent than the other. Maybe one of the teams is really weak at a key position.

Whatever the case may be, in the following three games you can expect a pretty one-sided affair. Let's break them down.
 

Picks

Home	Away	Spread	My Pick
Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Patriots (-1.5)	Patriots
Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	Saints (-1)	Falcons
New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Jets (-4.5)	Jets
Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Ravens (-1)	Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles	Jacksonville Jaguars	Eagles (-11.5)	Eagles
Chicago Bears	Buffalo Bills	Bears (-4.5)	Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns	Steelers (-5)	Browns
Houston Texans	Washington	Even	Washington
St. Louis Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Rams (-3)	Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	Chiefs (-5.5)	Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	Panthers (-3)	Panthers
Dallas Cowboys	San Francisco 49ers	Niners (-2.5)	Niners
Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Broncos (-6)	Colts
Detroit Lions	New York Giants	Lions (-3.5)	Lions
Arizona Cardinals	San Diego Chargers	Cardinals (-3)	Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Al Bello/Getty Images

There are a lot of reasons why the Philadelphia Eagles should absolutely roll the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's just start listing them:

• The Eagles are at home. They won their last four regular-season games at home last year.
• The Eagles were a playoff team last year. The Jaguars were 4-12 last season.
• The Eagles averaged the second-most yards per game and the fourth-most points per game last year. Their turnover differential of plus-14 was tied for third in the NFL.
• The Jaguars were tied for 27th in yards allowed per game and 28th in points per contest. Their turnover differential of minus-five was tied for 21st in the NFL. 
• LeSean McCoy led the NFL with 1,607 rushing yards last year. He's still really good.
• Cecil Shorts will miss this game due to injury, according to the team's official Twitter account

• The only receiver on the Jags roster who has ever caught a pass in an NFL regular-season game is Mike Brown, according to Michael DiRocco of ESPN.
• Chad Henne is the Jaguars quarterback. He finished last season with 3,241 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 60.6 completion percentage. Those are not good stats. 
• Despite losing DeSean Jackson, the Eagles offense might be even better this season, with Nick Foles having an entire offseason to work as the starter in Chip Kelly's system and the team getting Jeremy Maclin back from injury, trading for Darren Sproles, drafting Jordan Matthews and expecting a big step from young tight end Zach Ertz.
• The Eagles fast-paced, no-huddle offense is a huge chore for defenses to deal with. Especially in the first week of the season. 

The Jaguars could, possibly, maybe, somehow cover, but it would take a big day from Henne, a poor showing from the Eagles defense and a major step forward from the Jacksonville defense. Yes, it could happen. But pretty much everything about this matchup suggests it won't.

Chicago Bears (-4.5) over Buffalo Bills

David Banks/Getty Images

Does anyone honestly trust EJ Manuel at this point? If this game becomes a shootout—and given the weapons the Bears have on offense, it probably will become a shootout—does anyone think Manuel can keep pace with Jay Cutler?

If they do, they probably shouldn't.

Yes, the Bills should be able to run all over a rush defense that was easily the worst in the NFL last year. And while Buffalo was pretty stout against the pass 2013, it lost Jairus Byrd to free agency. Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore aren't scrubs at corner—and each are coming off of injuries this summer—but can they handle Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery?

"It's going to be fun," Gilmore told Kevin Oklobzija of the Democrat and Chronicle. "It's just fun going up against guys that people respect."

We'll see how much fun it is on Sunday in Chicago, where the Bears were 5-3 last year. The Bills on the road in 2013? A paltry 2-6. And remember, only the Denver Broncos scored more than the Bears' 27.8 points per game last year.

If the Bills don't establish the running game early, get a ton of pressure on Cutler and control the time of possession...well, this one could get ugly for the visitors. 

Detroit Lions (-3.5) over New York Giants

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Of the three games on this list, this is probably the one that is least likely to be a blowout. It's also the game that could feature the most points, so one slip up from the New York Giants could sink them quickly.

After Week 10 of the 2013 season, the Detroit Lions stood at 6-3 and looked very much the part of a playoff team. And then, somehow, everything just fell apart and the team lost six of their next seven games. It was a brutal way to close the season and heads justifiably rolled.

But with a new regime in place and the additions of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron in the passing game, the Lions look like they could shred teams this season on offense. And while the Giants weren't completely shreddable on defense a year ago, nobody's exactly mistaking their revamped secondary for the Legion of Boom, either.

On the other side of the ball, it remains to be seen if the Giants' three new interior lineman can handle Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Indeed, if those two continuously get a push up the middle, and Detroit indeed ends up blitzing more than it did a year ago and Eli Manning has big bodies in his face all afternoon long, last year's turnover woes for the Giants will likely continue.

Of course, the Lions are still pretty weak in the secondary, so this game could easily turn into a shootout. But if that's the case, would you rather have Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush and company or Manning, Victor Cruz and a bunch of question marks?

Most people would take the former. Look for this one to be a fun, exciting game but one that Lions pull away from and comfortably win in the second half, as the Giants struggle to slow down the vibrant Detroit offense.