NFL Week 1 Picks: Final Overview of Consensus Picks

While it's nearly impossible to find a consensus when it comes to things like predicting the postseason or Super Bowl, picking National Football League games on a weekly basis is easier to get a feel for. 

Week 1 should be harder to pin down simply because no one knows what teams will be like. We can assume based on what happened last year and talent acquired during the offseason, but until we see it on the field, should we really make assertions?

Yes, of course we should. What fun would football be without thinking long and hard about the games beforehand, then watching the magic unfold in front of our eyes? Here are our picks for Week 1, followed by a look at the games where there seems to be an overwhelming consensus. 

Matchup	Prediction
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons	Saints, 24-21
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Pick 'Em)	Bengals, 27-23
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-7.5)	Bills, 24-21
Washington at Houston Texans (-3)	Washington, 20-17
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)	Chiefs, 27-17
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins	Patriots, 31-17
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-5)	Jets, 20-10
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-11)	Eagles, 31-10
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)	Steelers, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-3)	Rams, 17-13
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys	49ers, 27-24
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)	Panthers, 24-20
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-9)	Broncos, 34-24
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-7)	Lions, 31-27
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3)	Chargers, 34-28

Consensus Picks

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

As you can see, I picked the Bills to upset the Bears. That's not an indictment of Chicago's offensive talent, which is among the best in football with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte and Jay Cutler ready to put up a ton of points this season. 

My rationale for picking the Bills is that their strength on offense (running the ball) matches up well with the Bears' weakness on defense (defensive line, stopping the run). They can control the clock with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, opening up the secondary on play-action passes. 

In no way will it shock me if the Bears win this game. They are the better team on paper and should win, but sometimes inferior teams present a bad matchup. 

Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com was one of many, many analysts to think the Bears will win this week, and his rationale is valid.

"The Bears will be explosive on offense, but Buffalo has a good defense," Prisco wrote. "Something has to give. The concern is Buffalo's passing game. Has EJ Manuel made enough strides, even against a bad secondary? Not sure he has."

The concerns with Manuel are very real, as is the fact Buffalo will be without its best defensive player, linebacker Kiko Alonso, all year. That opens the middle of the field even more for Marshall, Forte and Jeffery to make big plays. 

Even talking about it, I want to change my pick as I finish writing this. However, there's also something about Cutler that has to scare you. Even last year working with those big weapons, he had a pedestrian 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 11 games. 

Cutler's yards per completion of 11.7 was the second-lowest of his career. How does that happen when you have Marshall and Jeffery on the outside?

In the battle of inconsistent quarterbacks, bet on the team with the better running game. As great as Forte is, the Bills finished last year with the second-best rushing attack in the NFL. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Al Bello/Getty Images

You can tell just based on the spread set by oddsmakers that the Philadelphia Eagles are the biggest lock of the weekend. They are playing a Jacksonville team that is still rebuilding and is sticking with Chad Henne at quarterback despite the stellar performance of Blake Bortles in preseason. 

It's not hard to figure out why the Eagles are getting so much love in this game. They are coming off a division title last year, Nick Foles emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with a history-making 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, and LeSean McCoy led the most potent rushing attack in the league. 

Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has been trying to build a defense molded after the one he used to coach in Seattle, but this group isn't close to that level yet. 

Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com wrote in a preview for this game that Bradley has worked hard to change the culture around this franchise:

"

Trust management to have the right players in place and trust the coaches as they teach the schemes. Don’t focus on wins and losses, but focus on improving every day. If the players do that, the victories will eventually come. You could tell the players had bought into Bradley and the culture change by what happened in the first half of the 2013 season. The team lost its first eight games by double digits but there wasn’t a single complaint, grumble, or issue in the locker room.

"

It's true that those wins will come, but right now the talent isn't there to keep up with the explosive offense Chip Kelly has. 

Plus, while Henne is far from the worst quarterback in the league, his receiving corps is so young and untested that he's going to find it difficult to hit guys in stride and create big plays down the field. Cecil Shorts is the veteran of the group, but he's been ruled out for the game with a hamstring injury, according to John Oehser of Jaguars.com

If Shorts can't go, that will leave second-year wideout Ace Sanders and rookies Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. There's certainly talent to be found there, but it's just going to take time before it actualizes on the field. 

Barring something catastrophic for the Eagles in pregame warmups, this is going to be a blowout. 

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

It's very rare that a game featuring two playoff teams from the previous season will provide such an overwhelming consensus. Of course, the gap between the top of the AFC and everyone else is the size of a canyon. 

It also doesn't hurt when you have Peyton Manning playing quarterback in prime time at home. The last time we saw Denver in a meaningful game, it was getting picked apart in every conceivable way against Seattle in the Super Bowl. 

The Broncos tried to get more physical on defense this offseason by signing Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware. They also replaced Eric Decker with Emmanuel Sanders on offense, so even without Wes Welker, Manning will still have his share of toys to play with. 

Complicating matters for the Colts is that their offensive line enters the game in a world of trouble. They were awful last year, with starting guards Mike McGlynn and Hugh Thornton having all sorts of issues in pass protection:

Player	Blown Pass Blocks	Blown Run Blocks
Mike McGlynn	29.7	3.5
Hugh Thornton	21.2	8.0

With "protection" like that, it's no wonder Andrew Luck has to improvise so often outside of the pocket. He's been able to hide a lot of Indianapolis' deficiencies over the last two years, but their flaws have been exposed against elite teams on the road. 

Two years ago, Baltimore shut the offense down in the playoffs. Last year, coming off the high of that miracle comeback at home against Kansas City, New England ran the Colts out of the building in the AFC Divisional Round, literally, with 234 yards on the ground. Luck threw four interceptions in that game. 

Another stat to monitor early in this game is Indianapolis' performance on third down. According to Michael Wilkening of SportingNews.com, the Colts were able to succeed in this matchup last year despite being mediocre in that category:

"

The Colts won the time of possession battle in last season’s victory vs. Denver. However, Indianapolis converted just 5-of-17 third downs. The Colts need to keep moving the chains, and they must avoid obvious passing situations that allow Ware and Von Miller to heat up the edges. With this in mind, the Colts could use a big game from tailback Trent Richardson. Some healthy first- and second-down gains could give the offense a big lift.

"

One reason the Colts were able to win despite converting just 29 percent of their third downs was sacking Manning four times, including two from Robert Mathis, who won't be available for the team's first four games due to a suspension. 

All of the obstacles in Indianapolis' way are too much to overcome in a game against arguably the best team in football. 

If you want to talk sports. hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985