US Open Tennis 2014: Predictions for Men's Semifinals and Women's Final
The 2014 U.S. Open has not been kind to many of the highest seeds, but some of the world's best players have withstood test after test to make a deep run.
The top seeds in both the men's and women's draws are safe, with Serena Williams advancing to the final and Novak Djokovic more alive than ever on the men's side. Roger Federer is also around after surviving from a two-set disadvantage to No. 20 Gael Monfils on Thursday, and there are a couple of other less touted standouts still alive as well.
An exciting stage has been set for the final weekend at Arthur Ashe Stadium, with a women's final and two men's semifinals to round out the action.
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Let's take a closer look at every matchup and make some predictions.
| No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 10 Kei Nishikori | Saturday, Sept. 6 |
| No. 14 Marin Cilic vs. No. 2 Roger Federer | Saturday, Sept. 6 |
| No. 1 Serena Williams vs. No. 10 Caroline Wozniacki | Sunday, Sept. 7 |
Women's Final
No. 1 Serena Williams vs. No. 10 Caroline Wozniacki
Williams hasn't won a Grand Slam in 2014, but you couldn't tell by the way she has played in New York over the past few weeks. It will be easier said than done, though, continuing that level of play against familiar foe Caroline Wozniacki in Sunday's final.
The top-seeded American has not lost a single set thus far, most recently dominating semifinalist No. 17 Ekaterina Makarova in 60 quick minutes as the tournament's Twitter noted:
Williams has only continued her dominance after ripping through her summer slate, which included two victories over her opponent, Wozniacki.
However, the 10th-seeded underdog has dazzled since those defeats and topped No. 5 Maria Sharapova as well as No. 13 Sara Errani to make her first Grand Slam final since 2009—which also came at Flushing Meadows.
Wozniacki, close friends with Williams off the court, has played the top seed close in their two summer matches as both went to three sets. Because of Wozniacki's familiarity, Williams expects another long match, per her official post-match transcript:
"I definitely expect another close match. She really knows my game well and knows how to play. She's so consistent. I think that's one of the things that makes her really tough. So I just have to be ready for that and, again, just stay calm and just be able to relax and be happy.
"
Williams will come in as the resounding favorite, and that is completely understandable considering the way she has dominated her competition as of late. But as we learned in the 2011 U.S. Open final when she was ousted in straight sets by Samantha Stosur, recent form won't matter if her opponent jumps in front early.
This one will go one of two ways—Williams will fall flat and lose in straight sets, or she'll once again be at her best and win it in three sets. Wozniacki is playing with too much confidence and power to be beaten clean by such a familiar opponent, but even her best match won't frustrate Williams too much.
Prediction: Williams beats Wozniacki—5-7, 6-4, 6-2
Men's Semifinals
No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 10 Kei Nishikori
While Williams has successfully continued her summer play at Flushing Meadows, Djokovic has just as masterfully shaken off early exits in U.S. Open tune-up tournaments to get back to top form as the year's final Grand Slam wraps up.
The tests have gotten harder and harder for Djokovic, but he's not showing signs of it. He easily disposed of three unseeded opponents to start out, then handled No. 22 Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets before outlasting No. 8 Andy Murray's best stuff in a four-set quarterfinal win.
Standing in his way next, just like for the women's top seed, is a 10th-seeded underdog looking to continue some of the best play of his career against the unquestioned leader.
Nishikori quietly advanced to the fourth round, but everyone took notice after a five-set win over No. 5 Milos Raonic and another five-set thrilling win over No. 3 Stan Wawrinka that put him into his first Grand Slam semifinal.
The 24-year-old Japanese standout has emerged on the outer edge of the top 10 over the last two years, and Djokovic has been impressed with the play of his future opponent, per his official post-match transcript:
"Well, I haven't played Kei in a while. He's very, very good player, obviously. I think he's playing best tennis of his life in the last 12 months. He started working with Michael Chang and he changed a few things in his game. He serves very efficiently. Obviously he's very, very fast, maybe one of the fastest on the tour player. Great backhand, great forehand, all-around player.
"
Nishikori has used a combination of elite speed and a solid all-around game to frustrate some of the best players on Djokovic's side of the draw. But it's nothing short of impossible to compare the Serbian's current form to any of those that Nishikori has beaten.
Murray was a huge test for Djokovic, and he answered it in such a convincing fashion that it looks like nobody short of Federer is even capable of beating him at the moment. And even then, it would take Federer dialing back the clock to pull it off.
It won't be as easy as Djokovic likes, but he'll punch another Grand Slam finals ticket.
Prediction: Djokovic beats Nishikori—6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
No. 14 Marin Cilic vs. No. 2 Roger Federer
Marin Cilic entered the U.S. Open with a lowly No. 14 seed, but he's playing more like a top-five player in the world in Flushing Meadows.
The Croatian has beaten seeded foes Kevin Anderson, Gilles Simon and most recently No. 6 Tomas Berdych to make just the second semifinal of his career—the first coming in 2010 in Melbourne at the Australian Open. His quarterfinal match with Berdych figured to be a tightly contested affair until Cilic blew it open and finished in straight sets.
Conventional wisdom would suggest it was Federer who had the easier road to Saturday's semifinal, but that's not the case. The Swiss star had his back against the wall against No. 20 Monfils on Thursday, going down two sets to none before posting an incredible comeback partly caused by his opponent's shocking collapse.
Could the stage be set for the longest underdog run in New York in five years? USTA's Tim Curry wonders:
It would be a preposterous prediction to take Federer losing before Thursday, but he was exposed more against Monfils than he has been over the entire summer. Cilic, on the other hand, showed by holding onto a tough third and final set against Berdych that he can close it out against an elite foe.
If Cilic serves against Federer like he did versus Berdych, the second seed will have his hands full trying to generate break opportunities. Federer has lost the opening set twice in five matches at Flushing Meadows, and doing so again versus Cilic will be too much to overcome.
Federer won't go away until the final winner, but I'm going with the upset here.
Prediction: Cilic beats Federer—6-4, 7-5, 3-6, 5-7, 6-4
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