NFL Predictions Week 1: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

The first Sunday is the most difficult.

When it comes to picks, a volatile endeavor on its own, those in charge of dissecting an enormous 16-game slate can typically fall back on recent performances to judge how things will play out.

Not Week 1.

Sunday is here, with little in the way of help for those who have yet to submit picks. Let's change that by going over the entire schedule and nailing down winners, with a focus on two of the more difficult contests after the jump.

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
New Orleans at Atlanta	New Orleans (-1)	New Orleans	Drew Brees has more weapons than ever, and that Rob Ryan defense will be nothing short of improved.
Minnesota at St. Louis	St. Louis (-3)	Minnesota	Mike Zimmer defense, no Sam Bradford and Adrian Peterson? Easy.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (-5)	Pittsburgh	See analysis below chart.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia	Philadelphia (-11.5)	Jacksonville	Chip Kelly's offense is too much for a mediocre Jacksonville defense to handle.
Oakland at NY Jets	NY Jets (-4.5)	Raiders	See analysis below chart.
Cincinnati at Baltimore	Baltimore (-1)	Cincinnati	Andy Dalton seems to have improved, and Geno Atkins is healthy. No Ray Rice for Baltimore.
Buffalo at Chicago	Chicago (-4.5)	Chicago	The Bills are a mess, and Marc Trestman's offense won't skip a beat.
Washington at Houston	EVEN	Washington	See analysis below chart.
Tennessee at Kansas City	Kansas City (-5.5)	Tennessee	Defensive-centric contest with Jake Locker able to keep the Titans close.
New England at Miami	New England (-1.5)	New England	Rob Gronkowski's return threw Miami's chances out the window.
Carolina at Tampa Bay	Carolina (-3)	Tampa Bay	Lovie Smith will get the most out of an elite defense while a hobbled Cam Newton struggles.
San Francisco at Dallas	San Francisco (-2.5)	San Francisco	Defense will keep Tony Romo and Co. in check.
Indianapolis at Denver	Denver (-6)	Denver	Indianapolis has done little to improve an already leaky defense from a season ago.
NY Giants at Detroit (Mon., Sept. 8)	Detroit (-3.5)	NY Giants	Lions offense is too explosive for Giants to keep up.
San Diego at Arizona (Mon., Sept. 8)	Arizona (-3)	Arizona	Forced to pick, home team with a great defense seems the likely bet.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 1 p.m. ET, Sept. 3.

Advice for Tough Contests

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Rob Carr/Getty Images

For two old AFC North rivals, 2013 was not exactly what either had in mind.

Cleveland bumbled its way to four wins and beefed up both sides of the football this past offseason, while Mike Tomlin's Steelers landed at 8-8 and still tout an awkward balance between old age and youth.

For Cleveland, a trip to Heinz Field is not an ideal way to start the season, although it does present an opportunity for Mike Pettine's side to turn the tide against a rival.

"You look at one win at Heinz Field in 14 tries, two wins in the last seven years, five wins in the last 36 times against them," Pettine said, per ESPN.com's Pat McManamon. "It's brutal when you truly look at it."

The new era begins with veteran Brian Hoyer under center, not rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer, who provided a spark off the bench last season and threw five touchdowns to three interceptions, beat out the rookie and subsequently earned himself a long look, per Nate Ulrich of Ohio.com:

Much of Hoyer's success, especially against Pittsburgh, will hinge on new running back Ben Tate's ability to produce on the ground and stay healthy. Tate looked strong in Houston last year on 181 carries, which he turned into 771 yards and four scores.

Unfortunately for the two, a perennially stout Pittsburgh defense only improved over the course of the offseason. Former Ohio State linebacker Ryan Shazier has earned a starting role and, as NFL.com's Marc Sessler pointed out, he was all over the field during the preseason:

Pittsburgh's job on the defensive side is made easier when one realizes the team has no quality receiving threat, with the highlight being 30-year-old Miles Austin.

The same cannot be said for Pittsburgh, though. No. 1 wideout Antonio Brown can finally be classified as elite after 1,499 yards and eight scores last season, and while Cleveland has a great corner by the name of Joe Haden, Brown shrugged him off in Week 12 last season for five receptions, 80 yards and a touchdown.

In Pittsburgh, the Browns simply have a severe lack of options offensively. That meshes horribly against what figures to be a strong defense once again, so the Steelers are the right choice.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Browns 14

Oakland at NY Jets

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Perhaps the least appealing of the Week 1 matchups is the one that should have the nation's eye.

After all, Rex Ryan's New York Jets seem one quality quarterback away from making some noise thanks to a seemingly always-sound defense. Oakland is ushering in a new era under center with a rookie as the rebuild continues.

At first pass, the above passage makes it seem like a rookie quarterback simply won't have a chance on the road. But think again—New York's top corner, Dee Milliner, will miss the contest, per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini.

Let's put this into perspective.

That means Darrin Walls, who ranked as the No. 65 overall corner in the NFL last year, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), is the No. 1. Antonio Allen, who played safety last year and ranked No. 59 at PFF, is the No. 2. Kyle Wilson is then the slot man—he was No. 78 at corner last year.

The thing is, the Raiders already had an advantage in this area because the wideout corps in Oakland is perhaps the most criminally underrated unit in the league. James Jones is a quality player, and the duo of Rod Streater and Denarius Moore is both consistent and explosive.

As for rookie quarterback Derek Carr, well, let's just say Jones, who made his money playing with Aaron Rodgers the past few seasons, likes his new signal-caller.

"He's really calm, really cool in the pocket," Jones said, per Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle. "He acts like he's been there before. I've been calling him mini A-Rod since he got here."

The Jets did rank in the top three against the rush last season and return elite forces such as Muhammad Wilkerson (No. 15 3-4 defensive end last year at PFF), Sheldon Richardson (No. 5) and nose tackle Damon Harrison in the trenches (No. 4 defensive tackle). But the quality there will be put to the test thanks to an Oakland backfield that includes Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden.

At this point, New York is not full strength, which in turn makes it difficult to ride with the home team. As long as Dennis Allen keeps things simple for his rookie quarterback and rides two backs with plenty of juice left, Oakland will pull off the upset.

Prediction: Raiders 20, Jets 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).