US Open 2014 Women's Final: Wozniacki vs. Williams Preview and Prediction
Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki will meet in the 2014 U.S. Open final. Oddly enough, it will be the second time this year that the two make headlines while Williams wears leopard print.
Earlier this summer, photos of Williams and Wozniacki on the beach appeared everywhere from TMZ to the Today Show. Wozniacki wore a striped bikini, and Williams donned a leopard-print one-piece.
The photos surfaced during the French Open, a Slam both would probably prefer to forget. Wozniacki, playing in her first tournament since her public breakup with Rory McIlroy, lost in the first round. Williams, favored to win, fell in the second round.
"Serena is one of my best friends,” Wozniacki told the New York Times. “For a long time. But especially in the last year.”
So a retreat to the beach with a "bestie" seemed in order.
Sunday, both women will seek to rebound from a tumultuous year. Williams wants badly to redeem her season by winning her 18th Grand Slam. Wozniacki goes for her first. Either way, the two will have quite a topic to tweet about.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Williams holds an 8-1 edge over Wozniacki. The 24-year-old Dane's only win came in 2012 at the Sony Open in Miami. She defeated Williams 6-4, 6-4. This summer Williams defeated Wozniacki in Montreal and Cincinnati. Each match went to three sets.
Wozniacki's defensive skills keep her in matches against Williams. However, Williams' superior all-court game keeps her winning those matches.
How Wozniacki Has Looked So Far at the US Open
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Wozniacki roared and pumped her fist after she defeated Maria Sharapova in the fourth round. It was as if she knew that match was the biggest obstacle standing between her and another trip back to the U.S. Open final.
It was her toughest test, mentally and physically.
Wozniacki's win over Peng Shuai in the semifinals wasn't easy. Another counterpuncher, Peng put back shots that would have been winners against other players. She and Wozniacki had several 20-plus shot rallies. Eventually, Wozniacki's big-match experience helped her capitalize on the biggest points.
Then Peng, late in the second set, began experiencing what would later be diagnosed as heat stroke. After several minutes of treatment, she could no longer continue and retired.
But make no mistake, that was an earned win for Wozniacki.
How Williams Has Looked So Far at the US Open
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Williams has yet to drop a set. But it wasn't until her semifinal match that she looked like the 17-time Slam winner she is.
She defeated Ekaterina Makarova 6-1, 6-3. She raced through the first set in 26 minutes. With precision ball-striking, Williams remained laser-focused throughout the match. She hit 24 winners to just 15 unforced errors.
Dictating the match, she kept Makarova on the defensive. It was perhaps the most comprehensive performance Williams has had all year.
Leading up to the semifinals, Williams had played unevenly. She had five double faults in her second-round match against Vania King. She racked up 21 unforced errors and just 14 winners against Varvara Lepchenko in the third round.
She found her game against Makarova, and her struggles disappeared.
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Biggest X-Factors in the Semifinals
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This match rests on Williams' racket and within her state of mind. If Williams arrives dialed in like she was against Makarova, nothing in Wozniacki's repertoire will work.
Williams' nerves are the biggest X-factor. She's gotten tight in big matches before. Last year, she was up 3-0 in the third set against and lost to Sabine Lisicki at Wimbledon.
The pressure to win her 18th Slam is real, and all eyes will be on her to see how she handles it.
Friendship could also be a factor. Williams and Wozniacki have become good friends. Williams seems to lose her edge against players she likes. After winning her semifinal match, Williams said she would be happy with the outcome either way. Really?
Can't imagine her saying that about anyone other than Venus Williams or Wozniacki.
Wozniacki Will Win If...
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Wozniacki needs to play the type of match she did against Sharapova and hope Williams can't repeat the kind of performance she had against Makarova.
The hard-hitting Sharapova delivered body blows to Wozniacki. But like a tough fighter, Wozniacki absorbed the punishment and picked her moments to strike back.
A new-found confidence could benefit Wozniacki as well. Chris Chase of USA Today writes:
"Seemingly invigorated after her break-up with Rory McIlroy, the former world No. 1 is 19-3 since Wimbledon thanks to a newly aggressive style of play. Two of those three losses came to Serena, both at the two largest U.S. Open tuneup events. But rather than being a sign Wozniacki can’t win, those losses show the opposite. She knows she can win. Wozniacki pushed Serena to three sets in both matches, giving her the confidence to know that she can beat Serena even if Serena is playing well.
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If she forgets her passive past and jumps on every Williams serve she gets a look at, Wozniacki has a puncher's chance.
Williams Will Win If...
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Williams must harness whatever good vibes she took onto the court against Makarova. Focus and footwork like she displayed during that match make her unstoppable.
She needs to pack her patience. Wozniacki, among the best counterpunchers, will retrieve ball after ball and dismiss would-be winners. Williams must avoid becoming frustrated and trying to pull the trigger too soon.
She also has to keep her first-serve percentage above 50 percent. Wozniacki will look to pounce on second serves.
Prediction
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Wozniacki is playing inspired tennis. A sentimental favorite, she will have many supporters on Sunday. Unfortunately, she stands between Williams and history.
That won't be a pretty place to be.
Wozniacki will battle. She always does. It just won't be enough. After a year of frustration and missed opportunities, Williams will dig deep and find whatever it is she needs to win her 18th Slam.
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