US Open 2014 Men's Semifinal: Cilic vs. Federer Preview and Prediction
Did the five-time U.S. Open champ come back from down two sets to none against No. 20 Gael Monfils? Who thought after the first two sets that Roger Federer could win three sets in a row given how Monfils was playing?
Federer pulled it off, winning his quarterfinal match 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-2.
As for Marin Cilic, it’s good to be back in the U.S. Open. He reached the semifinal by beating Tomas Berdych 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (4).
He missed this tournament a year ago and, prior to that, withdrew from Wimbledon citing an injury. But in reality, as The New York Post’s David Satriano wrote:
"Cilic was cited for taking a banned substance, which increased his glucose levels. He was given a nine-month ban, later reduced to four months after a ruling didn’t find him completely at fault since the substance was purchased by a member of his team. Cilic said he didn’t take it to increase his performance.
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They never do, do they?
Well, here he is against the great Federer, who is looking for his sixth career U.S. Open title, his 18th overall and his first since 2008.
These two played within the last month and it was a competitive match.
Let’s get on with it and see what this match promises to deliver.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Federer has the edge five matches to zero with his most recent win coming in Toronto in the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Canada. It took Federer three sets to oust the Croat and now he's up against him once more, this time in the semifinals of the U.S. Open—Federer’s ninth trip to this stage of the competition.
“Marin’s played some great tennis in New York over the years,” Federer said during the ESPN broadcast. “He’s really improved this year. I’m looking forward to playing Marin. He’s a great guy. We had a tough match in Toronto. I think I needed nine match points to close him out. I beat him at midnight, 6-4 in the third.”
Federer dropped the “He’s a great guy” bomb on Cilic. Isn’t that like the kiss of death?
Cilic at the US Open
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Cilic is 18-5 at the U.S. Open and is the first Croat to reach the semifinals at Flushing Meadows since Goran Ivanisevic did in 1996. This is significant because Ivanisevic was the boyhood idol of Cilic and now his coach. The former-Wimbledon winner said in a New York Times story:
"I’ve always followed his career. I’ve always been there for him if he needed help. So when he asked me to coach him, I was happy. Maybe if he had asked me before, I wouldn’t have been ready in my head to go on the tour and travel again. But now, I’m at a good time in my life, so the timing worked out well.
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Cilic’s latest match against Berdych was a dismantling and powerful performance the likes of which Ivanisevic built a reputation. Cilic drilled 19 aces and was in complete command.
Federer at the US Open
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Federer is now 74-9 at the U.S. Open and reached his ninth semifinal at Flushing Meadows.
Much of the attention through the lower part of the bracket focused on how easy a road Federer had to the final. It didn’t look easy at all against Monfils.
Federer dropped the first two sets, won the third, then was down two match points in the fourth. Monfils hit a sneaky backhand up the line that beat Federer. If it landed in, the match was over and this slideshow would be all about Monfils. But it went long and allowed Federer to put Monfils under his heel and squash him out.
Federer said during the ESPN broadcast:
"I had this forehand drive. I was like, ‘Don’t hit it too wide because you’re in good position.’ Next thing he gets to it and it’s flowing past me. That’s when I’m thinking, ‘Freeze frame. And no way! It’s ok! It’s out! I’m all right!’ It’s one of those moments, lucky I guess to some degree but I went for it.
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With only two matches to go, Federer may have driven over that one road block that was in the way of his sixth title. It won't be easy, but he just had the match that woke up his deepest and most competitive ambitions.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Big servers have a way of swinging games and sets in their favor in a matter of seconds. Cilic used his serve in his quarterfinal match to snuff out No. 6 Berdych. So serving is an X-factor.
Both men have colossal serves, but Federer has a way of neutralizing the game’s biggest bombers. He did it when he beat Mark Philippoussis in the 2003 Wimbledon final and he did it in the second round against Sam Groth, the one-dimensional Aussie whose serve topped out at 145 miles per hour.
Another factor could be the confidence Cilic earned by competing against Federer just a month ago in Canada. Perhaps that match planted the seed that Federer is vulnerable in Cilic’s eyes. And after seeing the Monfils match, maybe doubly so.
Cilic also needs to keep Federer from setting up his feet and to try and make his game unpredictable. For the first two sets against Monfils, Federer looked uncharacteristically confused.
Howard Fendrich of Associated Press wrote (h/t National Post), “Frustrated by Monfils' unpredictable style, flummoxed by the swirling wind, and missing shots he normally makes, Federer twice was a single point from losing while down 5-4 in the fourth set.”
Also, anytime a player steps onto the court against Federer, a healthy 300-500 milligrams of delusion always comes in handy.
Cilic Will Win If...
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He can serve with the power and accuracy he did against Berdych. Cilic defeated the No. 6 seed as if he were an unseeded qualifier.
Earlier this year, Ivanisevic told ATP Tour.com:
"At 198 centimetres, [Cilic] had a shaky serve. We have worked a lot. He is now hitting two aces per game and is in the top two aces leaders on tour this season. He has never been up there before. He is getting a lot more free points on his serve, not necessarily aces, but he is getting short and easier balls to hit in response to returns. His second serve has always been good, but he has improved his first serve percentage.
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That will be most critical for Cilic, but Federer is no slouch when it comes to blocking back serves with pace.
If Cilic intends to get that first win in his sixth try against Federer, he’ll have to bring something else to the court. Perhaps painting the lines with groundstrokes and not allowing Federer to set his feet up for his blistering backhand and forehand will allow Cilic better chances at winning crucial points.
Federer Will Win If...
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He wins 50 percent of the four- to nine-hit rallies.
During the broadcast, ESPN posted a graphic that when Federer won over 50 percent of those rallies, he won the set. In the two sets he lost, he was far under that number. At times he tries to do too much, or he tries to end points too emphatically instead of letting it come to him.
Also if Federer can capitalize on his first serve he’ll be in great shape. When he was driving that serve against Monfils, especially in the fifth set when the Frenchman was, as they say, against the ropes, Federer was positively dominant. That allows him to dictate the tone and pace of the match.
“I started to serve huge in the fifth set,” Federer said during the ESPN broadcast following his match against Monfils. “You start feeling better because he’s a bit low after a tough fourth set.”
That serve has a way smothering his opponent. When he senses his enemy is down, wobbling, the serve is a spearhead, deftly aimed at whatever life remains.
Prediction
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Federer may feel he’s playing on borrowed time after that five-setter against Monfils. It was a spectacular match on both sides of the net.
Ultimately the more poised and seasoned player won. (Why would Monfils try and hit a ball between his legs? Yes, this is kind of how Monfils rolls, but in the fifth set when he’s technically still in the match? Really?)
If Cilic watched this match, he should be afraid, very afraid.
Federer squeaked by him in Toronto and squeaked through into the semifinals at Flushing Meadows.
Federer thrives on it, loves Arthur Ashe Stadium and has eyes for No. 6 and No. 18 overall.
Federer in four sets.
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