Bleacher Report's Guide to Acing Your 2014 Fantasy Baseball Home Stretch
More than four months after Opening Day, the long, treacherous baseball season still runs rampant. As MLB squads prepare for a postseason run, fantasy baseball owners hope to accomplish the same result.
It seems like ages since we all assembled our predraft cheat sheets. Remember when the crisp spring air discharged a scent of endless possibilities? Those were the days when Danny Salazar and Gerrit Cole held the whole fantasy world in their hands.
Now, many once-hopeful mangers have helplessly watched their fake teams sink into peril while others engage in the fight of their lives. Or they're just trying to sneak into third place to get their money back. Either works.
This is the time of year where fantasy fatigue strikes hardest. Owners have endured the daily grind of filing a lineup since April, and the summer sun is smiling, tempting them to shut down the computer and go outside. Not to mention this other popular sport that steals baseball's thunder.
You've come this far, so don't stop now. Postseason play is close in head-to-head formats, and the clock is also ticking on rotisserie gamers to amass those precious points. We're rounding the closing lap, but there's still time to catch a second wind.
To provide owners with that extra boost, here is a late-season fantasy guide containing tips to help end the year in style. Not sure how to approach trading with the deadline nearing? Want some waiver-wire suggestions, injury news and possible September call-ups to monitor?
We got you covered. Here's everything you need to finish the 2014 season strong.
Don't Let Football Interfere
1 of 8With the preseason underway, the NFL is playing its seductive siren song across the country. Try not to fall for its spell.
Fantasy sports has morphed into a mainstream entity, but football leads the way by a far margin. ESPN doesn't air a show every Sunday dedicated to fantasy baseball. There are no FX comedies about a group of friends fighting over the day's best pitcher to stream.
OK, there's no need to get so dramatic. Along with countless others, I'm gearing up for my fantasy football draft. There's plenty of room for both sports in this town, so nobody is forcing you to walk to the one you love most.
The problem comes when overzealous managers can't keep up with both sports, and the players out of direct contention toss baseball aside altogether. It seems like someone might have an inferiority complex, but see how many MLB September surgers go unnoticed until next spring.
You signed up for an exhausting 162-game season. Stick around for its duration. There's nothing worse than seeing a sedentary squad starting five injured players when a glistening trophy hangs in the balance.
Loyalty Is for Losers
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Now is not the time to stubbornly stay on a sinking ship. This late in the game, you can't trust some once-dependable names to turn the corner soon enough to save your season.
You expected better, and that embarrassment is causing you to hold on in hopes of salvaging some value in return for your patience. At what point, however, do you realize enough is enough?
These guys are all owned in more than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, but standard mixed-league managers should cut the cord on them now. Nobody can feel safe using them anyway, so why waste the precious roster spot instead of riding the hot hand or making a more enticing speculative add?
Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor's season is getting ugly. Through his first seven starts following his delayed 2014 debut, the lefty registered a 3.07 ERA. Since then, he has a 7.42 ERA through 11 horrid outings.
Although his .358 BABIP is mighty high, so is his 25.5 percent line-drive rate. Only Josh Tomlin has relinquished liners more often. Those hard-hit balls naturally turn into hits, and opponents are especially teeing off on his fastball. According to Brooks Baseball, the competition owns a .391/.441/.628 against his listless four-seamer.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
What a letdown. Despite A.J. Burnett's hazardous move to Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park, I thought his sterling strikeout (9.85 K/9) and ground-ball (56.5 percent) tendencies would win out. Nope.
He's struggling mightily in his new locale, notching a 4.29 ERA with just 132 strikeouts through 157.1 innings. He has surrendered five or more runs in six separate starts this season, three of those occurring over the last 30 days.
There are countless pitchers frequenting the waiver wire who can exceed Burnett's off-putting output. Phil Hughes, Drew Smyly, Roenis Elias and Nathan Eovaldi are all superior alternatives available in most leagues. Stick around to delve deeper into two of those options.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Lawrie lasted one whole at-bat before doing an about face back to the disabled list. Per Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Toronto does not expect him back until September. That's a lot of time to wait for a .247/.301/.421 hitter who hasn't attempted to steal all year.
On Thin Ice: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
Would you own a pitcher with a 4.76 ERA and 6.69 strikeout-per-nine rate if his name wasn't Justin Verlander? He is not slated for a stint on the disabled list after exiting Monday's start with a sore shoulder, but if further complications arise, cut him.
Add These Guys Now
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These players are still available in a majority of Yahoo leagues, but none of them should be. Chances are they're already accounted for in most competitive groupings with active participants, but if not, act now.
Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Home runs are good. Stolen bases are good. Second basemen who offer both are especially good. Bouncing back from a terrible start, Kolten Wong has rebounded to accumulate nine long balls and 17 swipes. His average has even risen to a passable .252.
If he clears the fences once more, Wong will join Brian Dozier, Anthony Rendon, Ian Kinsler and Josh Harrison as the only second basemen with double-digit homers and steals. Everyone has caught on to Harrison—if not, grab him now as well—but Wong is owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues due to his average uncertainty.
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
David Peralta, the guy here most likely on the waiver wire, is getting overlooked on the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks. Making his MLB debut at 26, Peralta's not a top prospect, and he doesn't possess elite power or speed.
All he's doing is hitting .310/.344/.481 with five homers and four steals. Through 57 games, he's also amassed 12 doubles and five home runs, earning prominent placement in Arizona's batting order. He's a must-add in five-outfielder formats.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg. That's the whole list of starting pitchers with a higher K/9 rate than Jake Odorizzi's 10.20 clip.
Don't let his 3.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP scare you away. His 3.31 FIP speaks much more fondly of his performance, and it has shown lately. In his last 70 innings, Odorizzi has a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while producing whiffs at an enormous capacity. Regardless of the league, Odorizzi belongs on a roster.
Phil Hughes, SP, Minnesota Twins
Fifteen walks. Through 150.2 innings and 24 starts, Hughes has issued 15 free passes. With 134 strikeouts to boot, his 8.93 strikeout-to-walk ratio trails only Hisashi Iwakuma. He remains prone to the long ball away from Yankee Stadium, but his 3.88 ERA should dissipate closer to his stellar 2.64 FIP.
Drew Smyly, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
In his past five starts, Drew Smyly boasts a 2.93 ERA and 34 strikeouts through 30.2 innings. Over those appearances, the former Detroit Tiger faced four top-10 offenses, including the No. 1- and 2-ranked Oakland Athletics and Los Angels Angels.
Owned in about a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Smyly can make the Tampa Bay Rays and fantasy owners alike look smart for snagging the unheralded former reliever.
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Players Returning from Injury
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Some old friends are returning to the fold in time to make an indelible impact on the fantasy playoff hunt. These guys aren't superstars when healthy, but they're worth a speculative add, or at the very least should be monitored closely.
Adam Lind, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Adam Lind never receives his fair due despite his notable contributions at first base. A year after hitting .288/.357/.497 with 23 homers, he batted .320/.389/.489 before a broken foot interrupted his success.
Alas, he returned on Tuesday night to little fanfare. Owners have been slow to wheel out the welcome mat due to his measly four homers, but the 31-year-old has averaged 23 round-trippers throughout the previous five seasons. He'll make for a satisfying corner infielder or utility plug-in this September.
Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox
Not a necessary pickup in 10- or 12-team mixed leagues, preseason sleeper Avisail Garcia played just eight games before suffering a shoulder injury. Expediting his return, which was initially slated for September, Garcia could come back sooner, per ESPNChicago.com's Doug Padilla. He certainly doesn't appear rusty, registering a .366 batting average in 10 Triple-A rehab games.
Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees
A long, winding recovery process finally led Michael Pineda back to the big leagues this April, and his homecoming produced a 1.83 ERA in four starts. Then he went right back to the disabled list for nearly four months.
On Wednesday night, he'll take the mound for the first time since April 23, when he was ejected for using pine tar. The 25-year-old is ready to resume where he left off.
"I'm very, very happy for me," Pineda told ESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews. "Everything is the same. Everything looks good. I'm feeling powerful. I'm so excited.''
Watch his return carefully. Once a burgeoning ace before injuries derailed his fast track to stardom, Pineda could make a difference over the final weeks.
Post-Hype Sleepers to Watch
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As a society, we tend to demand immediate results. Weight-loss supplements and fad diets get peddled to impatient consumers unwilling to work hard to improve their health. Game of Thrones fans who haven't read the books will skim through Wikipedia entries for spoilers. Where does the madness end?
So when a highly regarded player can't immediately realize his All-Star upside, fantasy gamers move on to the next shiny new prospect. Before giving up on the discarded toys, remember that most players don't dominate right out of the gate.
Monitor these guys on the waiver wire in case the iron becomes hot.
Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
Once considered a future batting champion, Dustin Ackley has instead floundered, producing a career .247 average through four seasons with little power or speed to match. This season has largely been more of the same, but he has lately showed signs of life.
Since the All-Star break, the 26-year-old outfielder is hitting .323, and his four homers already mirror his pre-break tally. Although possibly nothing more than a small sample size, it's worth seeing if he keeps the hot hand down the stretch.
Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians
This isn't how it was supposed to go down. When Salazar recorded a 3.12 ERA and 65 strikeouts through 52 innings last year, our mouths all watered at his potential to file for Cy Young contention.
Instead, he holds a 4.88 ERA and is once again waiting for the Cleveland Indians to promote him from Triple-A. Despite getting decimated, the 24-year-old is keeping his strikeout rate at a hearty 9.91 K/9. Those punchouts are enough to keep owners on their toes in case he finds last year's mojo.
Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays
An alluring middle infield option entering 2014, Nick Franklin hit .128/.192/.170 with a 40.4 strikeout percentage before the Mariners mercifully demoted him. That's beyond awful, but let's not forget that the highly touted youngster is still 23 years old.
The Rays acquired him in the David Price deal in hopes of him becoming their new Ben Zobrist. Considering his high power and speed upside, it's still possible he reaches that level for fantasy purposes.
Prospect Watch
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What's the end of a baseball season without welcoming enticing prospects ready to fill the blank canvases of their careers? Plenty of neophytes will get the opportunity of a lifetime this September. Few will make more than a slight peep, but some are capable of creating considerable noise.
Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres
Those who missed out on Gregory Polanco could gain some solace in Rymer Liriano, another outfielder with terrific speed and a sprinkle of power.
The San Diego Padres called him up earlier this week after he forced their hand by dominating Triple-A to the tune of a .452/.521/.661 slash line. An insane .583 BABIP fueled that average, so owners can't expect anything in that ballpark from a player who hit .264 in 99 Double-A games.
Speaking of ballparks, he'll play half of his games at Petco Park. This limits him to an NL-only and deep-league option, but all owners should keep their eyes and ears alert.
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
When Kris Bryant gets promoted, you want him on your team. In keeper and dynasty formats, it's already too late. The chance also might not present itself in deeper leagues with forward-thinking owners.
The offensive machine probably won't even get a chance to swing his thunderous bat this season. Even though Bryant is far more ready than the recently promoted Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein insists the future star won't receive a September call-up, per the Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan:
"Nothing has changed. I still don't foresee a scenario where Kris would get called up this year. It would really take extraordinary circumstances to call up anybody in his first full professional season. For us... not only would the player have to be doing extraordinary things, but there would have to be unique circumstances with the big league team, where we were in a pennant race and really needed that boost.
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But if he changes his mind, would a guy with 39 homers and 15 steals in 120 minor league games interest you? How about his .322/.434/.672 Triple-A slash line? Those all qualify as extraordinary things.
Bryant is a game-changer who will cost a premium fantasy pick next season, even if he's not guaranteed a spot on Chicago's Opening Day roster. If the Cubs cave and allow him a sniff of MLB action this September, adding him becomes every fantasy manager's No. 1 priority.
Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
There's currently no clear portal for Joc Pederson's big league arrival, but his massive potential still manufactures dreams of him roaming the Los Angeles Dodgers' outfield with Yasiel Puig.
The rising 22-year-old's repertoire is tailor-made for a rotisserie league; he's hitting .302/.425/.568 with 27 homers and 26 steals in Triple-A. Due to his 27.4 strikeout percentage, his batting average could present a concern at the next level, but such an elite hybrid of power and speed is hard to find.
Should the Dodgers grow tired of Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier's mediocre numbers, or if the injury-prone veterans vacation to their DL timeshares, Pederson is another immediate-impact contributor.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Although he's hitting a measly .246/.292/.390 this season, Maikel Franco has put himself back into the September call-up discussion. Since July 1, he's sporting a .319/.340/.532 slash line with five homers. The last-place Philadelphia Phillies aren't playing for anything, and Cody Asche hasn't exactly locked down his spot at the hot corner with a .671 OPS.
Honorable Mentions: Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals; Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians; Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs; Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox; Andy Wilkins, 1B, Chicago White Sox; Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets; Alex Meyer, SP, Minnesota Twins; Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Know Your Situation
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All those player recommendations are well and good, but only you can properly determine which ones to follow. To do that, you'd need to develop a comprehensive grasp of your situation.
What are your team's strengths and weaknesses? Which categories require a boost? Where are you set?
At this juncture of this season, every team's positives and negatives are abundantly clear. If you own one of the rare teams with no glaring holes, congratulations. Aren't you special?
Chances are, even championship contenders need to improve somewhere. You have power in bunches, but it's accompanied by a limited supply of speed. Or maybe you're losing ground in saves despite your stellar starting pitching.
This advice applies more for rotisserie owners than head-to-head managers, but both would be wise to listen. Nobody wants to tank a category in either format.
Know your league. An innings limit smaller than I'm accustomed to crept up on me in one league. Now I'm stumbling not to surpass it too early, which prompted me to trade Zack Greinke for Freddie Freeman.
Not only does that help keep my rotation's workload in check for a squad near the top in wins and strikeouts, it finally gives me a replacement for the injured Joey Votto. Despite Greinke's 2.84 ERA and 9.69 K/9 rate, bolstering my offense became a no-brainer, considering my circumstances.
Now that's a fair-enough deal for either side in a vacuum, and anyone who subscribes to the theory of hitting over pitching will raise my hand as the victor. Nonetheless, I would have taken a little less if necessary, which brings us to an important note about late-season trading...
You Don't Need to Win a Trade to Improve
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People are greedy by nature. The trade market often plays out like Congress, with everyone's stubbornness and unreasonable demands causing nothing to get done.
It's hard to strike a deal when everyone is obsessed with winning a trade. One side has to misjudge the situation to give the nod of approval. Or, in a perfect world, two parties agree to a mutually beneficial deal that helps both of them.
That's a radical idea, but not an easy one to execute. Unless there's an obvious match—I have five aces and one closer, you have five closers and one ace—it won't happen unless everyone involved thinks he or she if fleecing the other co-signer.
At this point, it's often OK to let the other person come out ahead in terms of overall value in order to address a specific need.
While you may think Nelson Cruz's 31 homers makes him a huge catch, everyone else is typically smarter than you realize. They know he's hitting .165 since the All-Star break, so nobody is trading Adrian Beltre, or even the struggling Evan Longoria, for the 34-year-old outfielder.
But if you need a third baseman, what if you instead go for Kyle Seager? A much more reasonable request, the other owner may then get blinded by Cruz's power output and try to convince him- or herself that the two homers from the past week are a sign of him catching fire again.
In terms of the current stats, Cruz is the superior option. Considering Cruz has fallen hard back to earth despite needing two homers to match his career high, he's already provided his maximum value. From this point forward, he'll be nothing special.
Instead of selling high, fool the other manager into thinking he or she is buying low while you're positioning your squad for success over the final six weeks.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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