Top 15 Fantasy Football Sleepers
There’s nothing quite as satisfying as using an eighth-round pick on an unknown rookie running back out of Tulane University, who shocks the football world and finishes the season ranked in the top five. Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte was just one of several surprising stories of the 2008 fantasy season.
The key heading into 2009 will be to identify the next Forte and figure out how to get him on your roster. Here are 15 sleepers to look out for heading into your fantasy draft. Don’t worry—this list will be updated right up until the start of the regular season.
1. Derrick Ward: Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We absolutely love Ward heading into the 2009 season for two reasons. First, he’s a dual-threat running back who piled up 1,409 yards as a backup to Brandon Jacobs in 2008. Second, the Bucs’ offense has a serious arsenal that features wideout Antonio Bryant and big-play tight end Kellen Winslow, who will both force opposing defenses to respect the pass.
His value is going to be outstanding as several uneducated fantasy owners are sure to believe that Earnest Graham is going to carry a legitimate portion of the workload. He won’t.
The Bucs didn’t spend $17 million to have Ward sit on the bench. Be advised: If rookie quarterback Josh Freeman wins the job heading into Week One, Ward’s value will decrease a bit.
With wideouts Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal forcing defenses to sit back in nickel and dime coverage, Moreno will be free to exploit the underneath passing lanes. He’s a top-20 running back.
AP: Olsen's value skyrocketed when the Bears traded for Jay Cutler.
3. Greg Olsen: Tight End, Chicago Bears
Olsen caught 54 passes for 574 yards and five touchdowns in 2008 despite playing with quarterback Kyle Orton and splitting time with tight end Desmond Clark. Expect him to see a big increase in targets now that he’s entering his third professional season and has Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler throwing him the football. Olsen is a physically gifted tight end with good speed and the ability to break tackles in the open field.
As the pocket breaks down and Chicago’s young receiving unit struggles, look for Olsen to become a major player in the Bears’ offense. Keep in mind: Cutler’s former tight end, Tony Scheffler, caught 89 passes in 29 games over the past two years, and he had to fight with Marshall and Royal for targets.
4. Donald Brown: Running Back, Indianapolis Colts
You’re going to hear me talk a lot about Brown over the next two months, so you’d better put this guy on your draft board and get him on your team—because the secret is going to get out.
Brown is a shifty dual-threat back who fits the Colts’ offensive system perfectly. He can make plays in both phases of the game and has the added benefit of playing with future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning.
Yes, he’s going to share the load with Joseph Addai, but so what? Chris Johnson split carried with LenDale White last season and that seemed to work out just fine for everyone. The value here is going to be outstanding as Brown isn’t a big-time name from a big-time college program (Connecticut). The big plus is that with Addai’s health concerns, Brown could end up being the outright starter at some point this season. If you play in a keeper league, do not let this guy get away.
AP: With Ward now in Tampa it's time for Bradshaw to step into the spotlight.
5. Ahmad Bradshaw: Running Back, New York Giants
Look at it this way: When former Giants running back Derrick Ward signed with Tampa Bay, 1,400 total yards went out the door. Guess who’s in line to pick those up? The Giants have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and Bradshaw has the benefit of splitting carries with man-beast Brandon Jacobs, meaning he’ll have fresh legs throughout the season.
He’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry over his two-year career and has the tools and talent to make plays on the ground and through the air. Want proof? Bradshaw carried the rock nine times for 96 yards last season against the defense known as the Baltimore Ravens. Yeah, he can play.
6. Vincent Jackson: Wide Receiver, San Diego Chargers
After the way he played in 2008, the secret is out that Jackson is a baller. Some of you may wonder why we have him on our sleeper list if most owners already know about him. Simple: Because we want to drive home the point of how valuable he can be to your fantasy team.
We’ve got him ranked in the top 15 among wide receivers for a reason. He’s a big, physical deep threat who fits perfectly in head coach Norv Turner’s vertical passing attack. He’s a serious red zone target and is one of the best jump ball receivers in the league. Now that he’s become the outright No. 1 receiver in San Diego, look for Jackson to improve on a 2008 campaign that saw him average an astounding 18.6 yards per reception. He’s on the verge of becoming an elite NFL wideout.
AP: Washington goes from unknown third stringer in Pittsburgh to top dawg in Tennessee.
7. Nate Washington: Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans
An explosive outside receiver who’s going to rejuvenate the Titans’ vertical passing attack, Washington goes from being the No. 3 wideout in Pittsburgh to the No. 1 target in Tennessee. He’s got great speed, reliable hands and knows how to get down the field.
The Titans’ 1-2 rushing punch of Chris Johnson and LenDale White is going to force opposing defenses to respect the run, limiting their opportunities to roll coverage in Washington’s direction.
Even at 36 years old, quarterback Kerry Collins still throws one of the nicest deep balls in the game. Think of it like this: Washington caught 40 passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns as an afterthought in Pittsburgh last season. As the main man, expect those numbers to increase.
8. Kyle Orton: Quarterback, Denver Broncos
If you go into your fantasy draft this August without Orton’s name in the back of your mind, you’re better off turning in your entry fee and getting ready for fantasy basketball.
There was a five-game stretch in 2008 in which Orton was one of the NFL’s top fantasy quarterbacks, throwing for 1,370 yards and 10 touchdowns with just four interceptions. And he did it with a punt returner named Devin Hester as his No. 1 wideout. Orton is now the top dog in Denver, where he’ll be throwing the rock to star wideouts Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.
In addition, owners need to remember that Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels is the same guy who tutored quarterback Matt Cassel last year in New England. With a suspect defense that’s going to struggle, the Broncos are going to be throwing for four quarters all season. Grab Orton as your QB2 with the intention of starting him at some point this year. He’s going to put up some numbers.
AP: Merriman's return to the lineup means a lot more than people think.
9. San Diego Chargers: Defense/Special Teams
We love this defense so much this year that we have them written up in our comeback players article as well. Look, people can talk all they want about how football is a team sport and no one player makes that big of a difference, but that’s bull crap and you should know it. The return of Shawne “Lights Out” Merriman to this unit provides an instant upgrade in all phases of the defense. The pass rush is going to improve, which will lead to more turnovers and sacks, meaning more fantasy points. In addition, they get six games against Oakland, Kansas City and Denver.
One guy to keep an eye on is rookie DE/LB Larry English. This kid can play and he’s going to make an impact. San Diego’s terrible showing last season is going to have them undervalued heading into 2009. Good. That makes them a steal you can stick in everyone’s face at the end of the year.
10. Donnie Avery: Wide Receiver, St. Louis Rams
As a rookie wide receiver playing second-fiddle to Torry Holt, Avery put up some respectable numbers, catching 53 passes for 674 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now the top target on a St. Louis team that spent the offseason fixing its biggest problem: protection. The Rams signed free-agent center Jason Brown and drafted top offensive tackle prospect Jason Smith (Baylor) in an effort to give quarterback Marc Bulger more time in the pocket to set his feet and progress through his reads.
With Bulger back in the saddle and running back Steven Jackson healthy and ready to go, Avery should find some decent success this year now that Holt has signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He may not crack the top 15, but his value on draft day should be very nice.
11. John Carlson: Tight End, Seattle Seahawks
We liked Carlson heading into 2008 and love him even more entering 2009 now that quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is healthy and the Seahawks added wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
Carlson quietly cracked the top 10 in scoring among fantasy tight ends last year, catching 55 passes for 627 yards and five touchdowns. Six games against the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals, as well as an improved wide receiving unit to force defenders to the outside, should pave the way for Carlson to post another healthy stat line in 2009.
He may not be flashy, but the kid is definitely effective.
12. Matt Hasselbeck: Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks
Speaking of Seattle, look for a comeback year from former Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.
Hass is coming off an injury-plagued 2008 season that saw him miss nine games, and the fact that he turns 34 this season is sure to drive his value even lower…making him an excellent sleeper pick. Remember, Hasselbeck is just two years removed from a 3,966-yard, 28-touchdown season. He’s got an improved wide receiving unit that features new addition Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson and the finally healthy Deion Branch.
Don’t be fooled by all the talk about how new head coach Jim Mora Jr. is going to turn the Seahawks into a run-oriented football team. This may not be the same west coast system as it was under Mike Holmgren, but Seattle didn’t go out and pay Houshmandzadeh over $40 million just so they could hand the ball to Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett all day.
AP: Don't be surprised if Harrison wins the starting job in Cleveland.
13. Jerome Harrison: Running Back, Cleveland Browns
Never heard of him? Don’t worry, you will. Harrison is a speedy, dual-threat rusher who is currently listed as the No. 2 running back on the Cleveland depth chart. But you didn’t come to the National Football Post to read about a backup, did you? Our sources close to the situation in Cleveland have indicated there’s a good chance the Browns could cut starting running back Jamal Lewis before the start of the season, opening the door for Harrison to step into the spotlight.
New head coach Eric Mangini is going to turn the Browns into more of a run-oriented team in 2009, meaning the touches will be there. Harrison may not explode onto the scene, but the fact that he’s an unknown is sure to keep his stock low on draft day, making him an excellent value pick in the middle to late rounds.
14. New England Patriots: Defense/Special Teams
The return of quarterback Tom Brady does more than just improve this offense, it makes life a hell of a lot simpler for the defense as well.
Think of it this way: The Patriots were one of the top-ranked fantasy defenses at the end of the 2007 season. Why? Not so much because they had the best talent, but because the offense got them such a big lead they KNEW opposing offenses were going to be throwing all game. This meant they could sit back in nickel and dime coverage during the second half and make plays all over the field (19 interceptions in 2007, tied for sixth in the NFL).
With reigning defensive rookie of the year Jerod Mayo at linebacker and emerging safety Brandon Meriweather making plays in the box, look for this unit to post some respectable numbers in 2009.
They may not be a top-five defense at the end of the year, but you’ll get some good production out of them for a very cheap price.
AP: Expect Flacco to improve on a respectable rookie season.
15. Joe Flacco: Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens
This is arguably the “deepest” sleeper on our 2009 list, but we like Flacco’s chances for success in 2009. Quarterbacks entering their second year under center almost always show improvement, and now that Flacco has a full offseason of work under his belt, look for offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to take the training wheels off the Ravens’ passing game and let his quarterback get down to business.
Flacco threw only five interceptions in his final 11 games and posted eight outings in which he completed 65 percent or more of his passes (fellow rookie Matt Ryan also had eight games in which he completed 65 percent or more of his passes). He may not be the starting quarterback you can depend on week in and week out, but Flacco should prove to be a nice QB2 who can function as a serviceable starter when needed.
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