There's No Telling What the Jazz Will Do with Their Draft Pick

I love predictions.  More exactly, I love second guessing others' predictions.  Don't we all?

I don't mean mundane predictions like proffering that Blake Griffin will be the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.  I like the guys who have the guts to predict who will be taken by the Lakers and the Cavaliers with the 29th and 30th picks.  I mean seriously, you just won the NBA title you have no glaring needs that can be adequately addressed by a draft pick.  Good luck predicting what a team will do with a pick in that situation.

The interesting picks are 10 through 20.  This is where teams who have legitimate needs have to play the "Best Available Player vs. Fill Our Need" game.

Welcome to where the Utah Jazz have spent most draft days for the past 20-plus years.

With the exception of the No. 3 pick that brought Deron Williams to Salt Lake, for the past two decades the Jazz have been good enough to avoid the lottery, but bad enough to still have significant needs come draft time.

What do the Jazz do with the 20th pick this year?

If you subscribe to most expert opinions the Jazz will take University of North Carolina super-stud Tyler "Psycho-T" Hansbrough. 

As a devoted Jazz follower since their arrival in Utah in 1979 I can tell you one thing for certain:  You cannot predict what the Jazz will do with their draft picks.  Jazz fans can pray for mid-tier draft-pick magic similar to what happened with John Stockton (16th pick) in 1984 and Karl Malone (12th pick) in 1985. 

Don't hold your breath Jazz faithful.  This draft class is being regarded as one of the weakest in quite some time.

Where does that leave the Jazz and their No. 20 pick this year?

Hansbrough looks like a solid fit for the Jazz.  His tenacity, work ethic, and physical style of play certainly look like a match for Jerry Sloan's team.  Under different circumstances it would make perfect sense, but there is more to it.

The Jazz are on the borders of luxury-tax land.  For years the Jazz insisted that was territory they wouldn't even consider entering.  New owner Greg Miller has softened that stance, but you can still count on the Jazz to be fiscally responsible.

The Jazz have nine free agents.  Some are almost certain not to return (read: Carlos Boozer).  Others will likely be back—with bigger contracts (Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur).  Still others, like Kyle Korver, are up in the air.  What is known is that none of the free agents are going to take a pay cut to re-sign with the Jazz.

The Jazz have plenty of project players in development.  Youngsters like Krylo Fesenko, Kosta Koufos, and Morris Almond have spent plenty of time in the NBDL.  Even CJ Miles, who is barely 21 years old, is considered to still be developing.  All that development requires playing time.

And let's not forget that Jerry Sloan has never been a fan of rookies.

So, what do you do with pick No. 20 in the 2009 NBA Draft?

You unload it.  Package it with a player in a trade (Boozer?) or swap it for a future draft pick. 

Or, you select an international player who has no intention of joining the NBA for at least a year or two.  The Jazz already have two second-round picks floating around the international scene.  There is no indication of when or if they will ever come to the American game and that is okay with the Jazz.  The Jazz own the player's rights.  The players continue to develop and the Jazz don't have to pay them a dime.

The items on the Jazz' shopping list this offseason are not available with pick No. 20 in this year's draft and the Jazz can't afford to spend the money on projects, possibilities, or experiments.