NCAA Tournament 2014: Updated Bracket and Predictions for Elite 8

And then there were eight. One of these teams will cut down the nets at the end of it all, but that means seven of them will experience the anguish of coming so close and ending the season with a loss. There is plenty of insanity on tap for the remainder of the NCAA tournament with four fascinating Elite Eight matchups in store complete with personalities, storylines and great basketball.

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South: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 11 Dayton

Bleacher Report

Everyone outside of Florida has to be pulling for the Dayton Flyers as they attempt to shove their big feet into that dainty glass slipper and continue their Cinderella run. What better team to upset than the No. 1 overall seed?

The Flyers have surprised every step of the way, but they’ve been here before. Just a very long time ago:

John Bazemore

With four players averaging over 9.5 points per game and a rotation that can go 11-deep (nine Flyers logged double-digit minutes in the Sweet 16 win over Stanford), Dayton is not merely a fluke.

Dayton’s ball movement, depth and balanced offense have caused problems for three relatively good defenses so far in the tournament:

But the task at hand is a daunting one. The Gators haven’t lost since Dec. 2 and have won all three of their tournament games handily, with their closest game being their latest 11-point win over UCLA.

Head coach Billy Donovan’s rotation may not be as deep as Dayton’s, but Florida has an exceptionally deep and talented roster with plenty of experience. That experience isn’t purely in terms of games played but games that actually matter—like the one they’re about to play.

Patric Young, Will Yeguete, Casey Prather and Scottie Wilbekin are playing in their fourth-straight Elite Eight game, so the magnitude of the moment won’t be overwhelming for them.

Florida’s defense is its calling card, but it also has a go-to scorer in Wilbekin who can take over games at the end.

Opponent	Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking	Dayton Points Scored	Dayton Assists	Dayton FGM
Ohio State	3rd	60	12	22
Syracuse	12th	55	12	19
Stanford	43rd	82	19	28
Florida	2nd	?	?	?

You may not be very impressed by his 13 points against the Bruins, but eight of those points came in the last 6:15 of the ball game and helped the Gators stave off a comeback attempt from UCLA. As Gary Parrish of CBSSports relays, Wilbekin isn’t afraid of the moment:

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I like [having the ball in my hands in the final minutes]. Those are the times when the game's on the line, and it's funnest to play in those types of [situations].

"

But while the Gators have been in this spot before, their season has ended here in the last three seasons. If the game remains close, it will be interesting to see whether Florida—who has looked so calm in the face of adversity this year—starts to tense up against a Dayton team with no expectations and no pressure.

Prediction: Florida Finally Gets to the Final Four

There is too much talent on the Florida roster for the team to go home so early. As we’ve witnessed this year, anything can happen on the court, but the defense will win out. The Gators have held opponents under 40 percent from the floor so far in the tournament, and they’ve shown the ability to focus and play stifling stretches of defense to blow games wide open.

Interestingly enough, the Gators haven’t been so dominant against the remaining teams in the tournament:

John Bazemore

They may have the chance to make up for those losses depending on what happens elsewhere in the bracket.

East: No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 7 UConn

The Spartans were the trendy pick to come out of the East Region, and they’ve rewarded everyone’s faith in them by looking like a favorite to win the whole thing.

With one of the best coaches in the business and the super-talented trio of Gary Harris, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling, Michigan State is finally healthy and saved their best basketball for when the stakes are highest.

But the underrated player spurring their success is Branden Dawson, as explained by USA TODAY’s Scott Gleeson:

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Branden Dawson has been the difference-maker. Since he's returned from injury, Michigan State has looked like the best team in the country. It took a while to get the chemistry right once the injury-riddled Spartans were finally healthy, but they're playing their best at the perfect time.

"

Standing in their way is a UConn team looking to continue their track record of success at Madison Square Garden.

The Huskies are fueled by the stellar play of Shabazz Napier (who is averaging 17.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists this year) but have the potential to beat anybody if Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels can play supporting roles and knock down some shots.

Elsa/Getty Images

Daniels was the unlikely Sweet 16 hero against Iowa State, dropping 27 points and 10 boards, and he’ll need to continue to play well against a well-rounded Michigan State team with a physical frontcourt.

Prediction: Spartans Fight On

Michigan State has demonstrated its versatility by outgunning its first two tournament foes (scoring 93 against Delaware and 80 against Harvard) and grinding it out against Virginia (61-59). The Spartans have the perimeter defense to contain the UConn guards, and they’ll be able to outlast the pesky Huskies.

With the win, Tom Izzo will continue his impressive streak of sending every fourth-year Spartan to a Final Four.

West: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Wisconsin

Elsa/Getty Images

The only 1-2 matchup of the Elite Eight pits Wisconsin’s highly efficient offense against Arizona’s relentless defense.

Jae C. Hong

In those matchups, defense usually comes out on top—which doesn’t bode well for the Badgers.

There is some reason for optimism, however. The Wildcats have shown a tendency to experience droughts on the offensive end, especially when they’re not forcing turnovers.

Moreover, while this Wisconsin team is more offensively minded than its predecessors, the Badgers still play with the toughness and defensive intelligence instilled in them by head coach Bo Ryan.

	Adjusted Efficiency (Points per 100 Possessions)	National Rank
Wisconsin's Offense	120.3	4th
Arizona's Defense	88.4	1st

Speaking of Bo Ryan, he’ll be trying to improve his record in big games, which hasn’t been good to this point:

Under Ryan, Wisconsin has never beaten a top-four seed and is 1-7 as the lower-seeded team.

Likewise, Arizona head coach Sean Miller is trying to reach his first Final Four and has one of the most talented rosters in the country at his disposal.

Prediction: Bo Ryan Ends His Drought

This will probably be the best game of the Elite Eight, and it’s a toss-up as to which team will come out victorious.

As Chris Dufresne of the Los Angeles Times notes, “the Badgers are masters at getting a better shot with one more pass and suckering opponents into fouls.”

With such a crafty offense built around one of the most unique scorers in the country, center Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin could pose problems for the Arizona defense.

Furthermore, the Badgers don’t beat themselves—turning it over only 8.1 times per game, which was the lowest in the country. That has been a problem for Arizona this year, as you can see from the four teams they lost to during the season:

Mark J. Terrill

Wisconsin will be able to hold onto the ball and keep the Wildcats in the half court, which plays to its advantage.

Midwest: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 8 Kentucky

Opponent	Turnovers per Game
California	10.2
Arizona State	11.5
Oregon	11.7
UCLA	10.5

While the Arizona-Wisconsin matchup looks like the best matchup on paper, the Midwest Regional final is the most intriguing one.

In one corner is a Michigan team looking to get back to the NCAA tournament final in one of head coach John Beilein’s best coaching performances:

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

His offense has been explosive and uncontainable for the most part, relying on a barrage of three-pointers to demoralize opponents, like they did against Tennessee before a late-game collapse almost cost the Wolverines a spot in the Elite Eight.

In the other corner is arguably the most talent-laden team in the country that seems to be putting it all together. Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post breaks down Kentucky’s rise brilliantly:

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First, there was a relatively comfortable win over a tough Kansas State team, a quiet statement of tournament readiness. Then there was the epic win over No. 1 seed Wichita State, the fantastic finish against a veteran team more used to close games with high-stakes than the Harrison brothers or Julius Randle.

By Saturday night, there was no doubt: the Wildcats rallied from seven points down with four minutes to go, tournament rookies overtaking the defending National Champions and holding them off down the stretch.

Seeding-wise, they’re not the favorites against the Wolverines, but you may be hard pressed to find many outside Ann Arbor willing to bet against Calipari’s kids now.

"

Moreover, let’s not forget just how tremendous the freshmen have been this year, bringing back some memories of the Fab Five:

Will it be the more experienced Wolverines that come through or the young Wildcats that continue to play wiser than their years?

Prediction: Fabulous Freshmen Continue to be the Storyline

Michigan has been deadly from beyond the arc recently, as Jay Bilas notes:

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

But Kentucky has the length and athleticism to close out on shooters and prevent Michigan from taking over the game with the three.

The Wildcats have grown up rapidly over the last few weeks and look poised and in control at the end of games.

Furthermore, Kentucky is playing tremendous defense in this stretch, and that will carry it to a Final Four appearance.