NCAA Brackets 2014: Definitive Guide to Hedging Your Bets When Playing Multiple

If you're in multiple pools or can enter multiple brackets within one pool, you're going to have to hedge your picks. What this means is knowing that you're playing some losing brackets, but you also give yourself a chance to win first or third in a given pool, depending on the points.

The one kicker is that there's no odds attached to your bracket. A chalky bracket is, say, 6-1 to win. One with more long shots is 20-1. It'd be nice to be able to play $50 on the 6-1 and $15 on the 20-1 to net the same gains. 

Does anyone do this? Calculate the odds of the bracket filled and assign an odds based on the input? Then allow the bracket filler to bet a sum based on the odds? Sounds awesome. Dibs!

No matter. Whatever the entry is for your pool, it's likely the same: $5 per bracket, $10, your middle child, wife swaps, what have you. In the next few slides you'll find holes in the bracket where you may want to hedge thus covering your bases. You can win whatever it is you're wagering, but it's more about bragging rights.

Just like The Joker says, "It's not about money, it's about sending a message." You want to send a message, don't you?

Before you read this slideshow know that I am not a professional sports handicapper. I, like many of you, love to fill out brackets at this time of year. Good luck!

Pick Your 'A' Bracket

Kiichiro Sato/Associated Press

This will be the bracket you feel most confident in, the non-risky one. Sure, there will be some spots where you'll need to take shots, but you can save some of those for your "B", "C" and "D" brackets.

In your "A" bracket, you may have Virginia reaching the Elite Eight, or you may have them losing to Michigan State in the the Sweet 16. Whichever one you feel most confident with, keep that in your "A" bracket. Make a note of it for your increasingly risky brackets as you go forward. 

Chalk tends to win, so make sure you have a chalky, boring bracket in your arsenal.

Seek out Vulnerable No. 3 Seeds

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Thanks to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, he's provided some great numbers over the past 29 years that can steer you toward some risky—and beneficial—picks.

For example, he suggests picking a No. 3 seed to lose in the second round. Only once in 29 years has every No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16. The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are almost a lock, so look at the No. 3 seeds. 

They are Duke, Iowa State, Syracuse and Creighton. Nothing about these four schools screams Sweet 16.

You may even want to go a step farther and axe one of these teams in the first round. Choosing one? Syracuse seems particularly vulnerable given the way it finished the season. In the second round, UMass could beat Duke. 

Be careful with Duke. The Blue Devils play their first two games in Raleigh, N.C., in a virtual home game.

It also helps that two of the four here are big names. Lots of people will pick them on name alone. In the early rounds, the No. 3 seeds are a great way to find ways to hedge and take calculated risks. 

What to Do with the Shockers?

Bill Boyce/Associated Press

Wichita State will be the fulcrum from which many brackets will swing. People are going to have them losing early and going late. It's better to have them advancing far and checking out early in your brackets.

Heading to the Final Four, you're going to want to jettison two or three No. 1 seeds. Looking at it another way: You're going to want to pick one or two No. 1s. The No. 1 seeds are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia and Arizona. If you had to pick two to drop out before the Final Four, who would they be?

Juggle the No. 1 seeds around if you're unsure and spread them among a few brackets in the Final Four. Advance Florida and Arizona in one and Wichita State and Virginia in another. The idea is to look to history and pick accordingly.

Find a No. 12 Seed and Keep It Moving

Elijah Van Benschoten/Associated Press

The 12-5 matchup is a bizarre one. You're dealing with a No. 5 seed that ranks 17th-20th in the land and a No. 12 seed ranking 45th-48th, yet No. 12 seeds have won at least one game in the first round in 23 of 25 years.

Who are you going to pick, because it's going to happen to at least one of these games:

• No. 5 VCU v. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
• No. 5 Cincinnati v. No. 12 Harvard
• No. 5 Oklahoma v. No. 12 North Dakota State
• No. 5 Saint Louis v. No. 12 NC State or Xavier

Once you have one or two of these set, you're going to want to advance one into the Sweet 16 because "12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round 2," according to Pregame.com.

NDSU appears to be the one No. 12 seed that can possibly break into the Sweet 16. From that same piece by RJ Bell, a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 27 of 29 years. Find the ones you like and find ways to spread them out.

Do You Slam on the Brakes?

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Is there any point while filling out your "A" bracket that you come to a full halt and question yourself and *gulp* think? Do you take the eraser and make a change? These are those fulcrum games where you should hedge. 

In Round 3, if No. 12 North Dakota State and No. 4 San Diego State meet up, who do you pick? When Wichita State plays Kentucky in Round 3 (assuming both reach Round 3), who do you pick? What about Iowa State and Villanova in the Sweet 16? These are brake-tappers. 

Here's where you can begin making more maneuvers and get crafty. 

The key in your main bracket is to not outthink yourself. Go with your gut, but as you find those ambiguities, that's a great time to consider more brackets.

But Don't Juggle Too Many

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

There's a reason chainsaw jugglers only juggle three at a time: too many is too dangerous and just down-right impossible. Same can be said for playing too many brackets.

At some point you can be rooting for too many at once. You may not even be able to keep track. When the horn sounds in one game, you don't know whether to cheer or to hang your head in resignation.

So what if you had Louisiana Lafayette beating Creighton in the first round. You also had Florida in the title game and it lost to UCLA in the Sweet 16. Fail.

Strike a balance of covering your greatest apprehensions on your brackets and then let these great athletes do their thing. You've done all the hard work. Now enjoy some hoops.