2014 NCAA Tournament Projections: Predictions for Top Teams and Bracket Outlook
With the bracket for the 2014 NCAA tournament finally set, we can rejoice in the process of filling it out—before screaming in anguish as your predicted national champion fails to make the Sweet 16. That said, the selection committee doles out seeds for a reason, so here are predictions for the top teams and their paths to the championship game.
History says that one of the top seeds will cut down the nets at the end of it all. Louisville’s victory last year marked the 18th time since 1985 that a No. 1 seed was a national champion and six of the last seven winners have been No. 1 seeds. Keeping that in mind, you wouldn’t be unwise to pick a No. 1 seed to celebrate in North Texas. But which one? That’s what we’re here to find out.
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Note: All records and RPI stats are courtesy of ESPN.com.
Florida, No. 1 seed in South Region
Record: 31-2 (18-0 in SEC); AP Rank: 1; RPI Rank: 1
The Florida Gators have been to three straight Elite Eights, and they look very likely to repeat that at worst this year. There is so much to like about this Florida team, but let’s start with how they play defense.
They have top-notch athletes all over the court, and head coach Billy Donovan has his team competing on the defensive end each and every possession. The result? The fifth-best defense in the nation, according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced rankings.
It’s really tough to score on this team, and it’s nearly impossible to mount a comeback against that defense.
The offense isn’t explosive, but the roster is packed with high-fliers who can make plays in transition and transition from defense to offense in a heartbeat.
Moreover, the Gators have tremendous depth and arguably the best seven-man rotation in country. They don’t have a go-to scorer—which some may consider a flaw—but that means that it’s hard for defenses to key in on any one player.
Scottie Wilbekin is the primary ball-handler and playmaker, but with Casey Prather and Michael Frazier getting it done from outside and Patric Young dominating the paint, it’s tough to stop the Florida offense.
Path to the Final Four
At first glance, there are some storied programs in Florida’s way to the Final Four. Upon further inspection, however, the South Region is actually better than it looks for the Gators.
No. 2 seed Kansas has struggled without Joel Embiid, going 2-3 without the 7-footer manning the middle. That lack of interior defense means there is a legitimate chance that the Jayhawks don’t even get past No. 7 New Mexico and its big-man duo of Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow.
In addition, No. 3 Syracuse has lost three of its last four and is slumping at the wrong time. No. 4-seeded UCLA may just be Florida’s toughest competition, but that’s a true matchup of offense vs. defense—and defense (meaning Florida) usually wins that contest.
It’s a tough road to be sure, but Florida is playing its best basketball right now which is more than you can say about some of its opponents in the region.
Tournament Outlook
Many, like Jeff Borzello of CBSSports.com, feel that the Gators are the favorite to win it all:
"Florida might be the title favorite. The Gators haven't lost since Dec. 2, and they are unbeaten with their current roster at full strength. They are a complete team in terms of balance, experience and consistency at both ends. And as one coach mentioned, the biggest thing is the way they handle adversity.
Teams don't go on 13-0 and 15-0 runs against them. There will be adversity in the NCAA Tournament—and the Gators have shown they can handle it effectively. This could be Billy Donovan's third national championship team.
"
Looking at its roster, resume and the man steering the ship (Billy Donovan), there isn’t a noticeable weakness on this team. Florida should definitely be considered the favorite to get the job done.
Arizona, No. 1 seed in West Region
Record: 30-4 (15-3 in Pac-12); AP Rank: 4; RPI Rank: 2
If you love Florida (and you should), you also have to love the Arizona Wildcats for basically the same reasons. They have the best defense in all the land, according to Pomeroy, and boast the most athletic team in the nation with Aaron Gordon, Nick Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson playing big minutes for Sean Miller’s club.
More importantly, every one of their players compete on defense and with Kaleb Tarczewski (rim-protector) and T.J. McConnell (Aaron Craft-like on the perimeter) rounding out the starting five, it is impossible to score on this defense in the half court.
The Wildcats are coming off a loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but you better believe that it will only serve as motivation for them moving forward.
Nick Johnson leads the team in scoring, but Arizona doesn’t really have a terrific offense—instead relying on the defense to win ballgames. If there is one weakness on this team, it’s definitely when it has the ball in its hands.
If the Wildcats come up against another stout defensive team, they may have trouble putting enough points on the board. Toss in the fact that they’re one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the field (65.5 percent) and there is a little cause for concern—although this is definitely nitpicking.
Path to the Final Four
The Wildcats may face a test as soon as the round of 32 if they have to face Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have enough offensive firepower and athleticism to challenge Arizona if they can make it a fast-paced game.
With potential matchups against an underrated San Diego State team and an intriguing date with Wisconsin in the Elite Eight, it means that it will be no stroll in the park for Arizona to make it out of the West Region.
Tournament Outlook
The Wildcats are right up there with Florida in basically every respect. They have depth, play outstanding defense and have an excellent coach (who is due a Final Four trip). They fall a little behind Florida on offense, and it will be interesting to see where they go for critical buckets if they need them.
Additionally, the key players on the roster aren’t as battle-tested as the Gators bunch which could play a role when they inevitably face adversity at some point in the tourney.
Wichita State, No. 1 seed in Midwest Region
Record: 34-0 (18-0 in MVC); AP Rank: 2; RPI Rank: 4
This team is undoubtedly talented enough to win it all. Perhaps the more dangerous trait for other teams is that the Shockers not only “play angry,” but they also play with a serious chip on their shoulder—even with a No. 1 seed.
Here’s what associate head coach Chris Jans told Eric Prisbell of USA TODAY about the team’s motivation to win:
"Thanks for all those who have helped us along the way. But a special thanks to the haters because you have motivated us even more. Our kids were either overlooked, weren't rated very high, had to go to junior college or transferred.
Long roads. And we love it. It works well with our personalities. They have a little chip on their shoulder. They are hungry. Hungry.
"
They are the only team to crack the top 10 of Pomeroy’s national rankings in both offense and defense, and Gregg Marshall is the best coach in the country whom nobody’s talking about.
You can hate on their conference and strength of schedule as much as you want, but remember two things before you do so. Firstly, there is something to be said for not losing to inferior opponents. Some of the top teams can’t say it with the likes of Duke losing to Wake Forest, Wisconsin losing to Northwestern and Michigan losing to Charlotte.
Secondly, there’s a reason Kansas coach Bill Self doesn’t want to schedule a home-and-home with Wichita State.
With Cleanthony Early as a walking mismatch, Ron Baker as the sharpshooter and all-around glue guy and Fred VanVleet running the show with more poise than anybody else in college, this team won’t give up and won’t be an easy out for anybody.
Path to the Final Four
Ouch. Wichita State has been the subject of discussion for the second half of the season as it rolled to an undefeated season, as analysts and talking heads debated whether or not its spotless record outweighed its less-than-spotless strength of schedule.
The Shockers will get the chance to prove the doubters wrong as they attempt to navigate the hazardous waters of the Midwest Region—which contains three of last year’s Final Four teams.
A matchup with preseason No. 1 Kentucky—a team finding its groove—looms in the round of 32 and then a game against the reigning champions, Louisville, in the Sweet 16.
If they make it that far, they’ll probably have to best Duke or Michigan in the Elite Eight to make it out of the region.
Yes, you just read that right. It is a treacherous region, and that is the only reason to doubt the Shockers.
Tournament Outlook
It’s certainly going to be tough, but the Shockers have as good a chance—if not better—than anybody else in their region to make it out alive. And if Marshall’s club comes out of the region, beating teams like Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan and/or Duke, would you want to play them in Final Four?
This team has been stoic in the face of pressure all season long and don’t expect that to change in the tournament. Compared to the other No. 1 seeds, Wichita State definitely has the hardest road to the Final Four, but that’s the only reason not to pick it as your eventual champion.
Virginia, No. 1 seed in East region
Record: 27-6 (16-2 in ACC); AP Rank: 6; RPI Rank: 10
The other three No. 1 seeds were locked up before the conference tournaments, but the last one was up for grabs. Thanks to Virginia’s win over Duke (and Michigan’s loss to Michigan State), the Cavaliers snatched the last No. 1 seed.
Malcolm Brogdon and Joe Harris are big-time scorers with the ability to get clutch buckets late in games when called upon. Harris’ shooting in particular poses problems for opposing defenses and provides floor spacing for the rest of the offense.
But Virginia made it this far, thanks to their stifling defense which allowed the fewest points per game (55.1) in the country during the regular season. Part of it is due to terrific team defense and the brilliance and versatility of players like Akil Mitchell, but it’s also due to its tortoise-like pace.
Only six teams played at a slower pace, according to Pomeroy, and while that helps its defensive philosophy, it may end up hurting the team. The Cavaliers play games slow and close, and while they rarely get blown out, they also let teams hang around in games.
There are no holes on the roster, but eventually that knack for playing close games may come back to haunt them as they face the top competition in the tournament.
Path to the Final Four
Virginia’s toughest test will come in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State. The Spartans are finally healthy and playing their best basketball, which makes them a realistic pick to win the entire tournament.
If the Cavaliers can get past the Spartans, they may have to face a difficult Iowa State team led by DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim or a trigger-happy Villanova team that can beat anybody if the three-pointers are falling.
Michigan State may be the favorite to make it out of the region, and Virginia just aren’t as good as the rest of the No. 1 seeds.
Tournament Outlook
The Cavaliers are better than anybody gives them credit for, but there are three teams that are clearly ahead of pack (the other No. 1 seeds). Virginia is capable of winning the entire tournament, but its lack of prime-time experience is a concern.
Eventually, Virginia is going to play a team that can play defense just as well (like Michigan State), and the Cavaliers' hopes will rest on whether they can score the ball.
Ultimately, Virginia isn’t as good a bet as the other No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four, so you will probably be better served to pick one of the other top seeds to win your bracket.
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