March Madness 2014 Brackets: Favorites, Sleepers, Cinderellas and More Advice
The 2014 NCAA tournament will be underway soon enough, and that means it's that time of year to fill out March Madness brackets.
Anyone from fanatics who watch college hoops throughout the season to basketball illiterates who pick teams based on colors can win their office pools—in which no money is wagered, of course. Dishing out advice for brackets is therefore a tricky task.
TOP NEWS
Cavs May Make Major Changes
Absurd price for potential Knicks NBA Finals tickets
.png?w=256)
Landing Spots For NBA Free Agents ✈️
There's really no analogy for it—believe me, I sat here for a good while and tried to scrounge up something clever—because almost no other counseling on the planet is destined to steer someone so horribly awry. So it goes with March Madness, the equalizing three-point line and the dangers of foul trouble.
While every individual can find his or her own method to the madness, what we can do here is discern who the big favorites are, break down some sleeper candidates that could battle their way to the Final Four and examine the upstart Cinderellas that have the potential to make shocking runs.
Prepare for yours truly to provide the best bracketology possible. Or, of course, disregard all the information that follows and use good old-fashioned intuition. It may lead to better fortune, but reading on at least sheds some light on what to expect in what should be yet another zany, thrilling basketball epoch.
The Favorites
Florida
A core of four seniors has given the Gators a big edge, and a 23-game winning streak to end the 2013-14 regular season gave them an unprecedented, perfect 18-0 record in the SEC. That is enough to suggest Florida is the best team in the country and the No. 1 favorite ahead of the NCAA tournament.
Patric Young headlines the group of seniors in the frontcourt with his athleticism in defending the paint and his improved offensive game, and Casey Prather leads the squad with 14.6 points per game.
Sharpshooting sophomore guard Michael Frazier II, Prather and Scottie Wilbekin are a trio of Gator stars who can knock down shots from downtown. The late addition of highly touted freshman DeVon Walker gives Florida an extra lift off the bench, along with senior Will Yeguete, Dorian Finney-Smith and Kasey Hill to round out a deep rotation.
ESPN's Jeff Goodman provided a fitting assessment of this loaded squad:
Watch out for the Gators, whose coach Billy Donovan has led national championship teams before and could very well pull it off again this time around. With three straight trips to the Elite Eight, this Florida nucleus is on the cusp of pushing on to further greatness.
Some teams are led by freshman phenoms, which is fine, but it helps a lot that the Gators are well-acquainted with the pressure of March Madness.
Arizona
The Wildcats have a suffocating defense and can compete with anyone in the nation as a result. KenPom.com's rankings have Arizona No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, yielding 87.3 points per 100 possessions. Coach Sean Miller has instilled a hard-nosed philosophy after having success at Xavier and continues to boost Arizona back to prominence after several years of instability in the post-Lute Olson era.
Quality wins versus Duke on a neutral floor and at Michigan prove that this team is capable of knocking off elite opponents, which they won't really encounter until the Sweet 16.
Leading scorer Nick Johnson is a streaky player, and the Wildcats struggle with consistency on that end of the floor. However, he is the Pac-12 Player of the Year, and the team did well with Aaron Gordon and Miller taking home conference accolades, per ESPN's official college basketball Twitter account:
With Gabe York as the only big contributor who can hit three-pointers at 40 percent, Arizona could find itself in trouble if an opponent gets hot from the perimeter. No matter how great the Wildcats may be defensively, any team can heat up from beyond the arc and give them a scare.
But with the way the Wildcats have crushed the competition this season and overcome the loss of star Brandon Ashley for the season with a foot injury, this is an adversity-tested bunch and a legitimate national title contender.
Wichita State
Say what you will about the strength of the Shockers' schedule, but the reigning national semifinalists backed up last year's surprising run with a perfect 34-0 record to date. That is enough to make them favorites by any measure.
The stars from the squad that made a Cinderella run of sorts in the 2013 NCAA tournament returned to put together a magnificent followup act under Gregg Marshall. The head coach is feeding off the team's detractors and found it "humorous" that some don't believe the Shockers are worthy of a top seed, per CBSSports.com's Jon Rothstein:
"It's humorous. I think that would be the word. Everybody has got an opinion. In this world with blogs and writers and all the different so called experts, everyone has an opinion. You can't please everyone all the time and it's really just the world that we live in. But those detractors out there, they only fuel our fire. We appreciate the detractors for that very reason.
"
Among the very best teams, Wichita State has the best combination of offensive efficiency and ability to crash the glass, which complements a capable quartet of three-point shooters led by Fred VanVleet (44.7 percent).
An argument could be made for Kansas to be among the trio of favorites, but star big man Joel Embiid has a back injury that will likely keep him out for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman, putting even more pressure on blue-chip freshman Andrew Wiggins to carry the Jayhawks.
The Shockers have been fortunate in that injuries haven't derailed their bid for a perfect season, as Ken Pomeroy highlights:
Even an uptick in the caliber of teams Wichita State will face in March shouldn't stop it from returning to the Final Four.
Sleepers
Oklahoma State
It's been a trying season for the Cowboys, who returned a trio of stars in Marcus Smart, Le'Bryan Nash and Markel Brown. Sophomore Phil Forte III has improved markedly since last year, too, and is a lethal outside shooter.
That gives Oklahoma State four legitimate scoring options, but there are red flags. Considering the greatness gracing this roster, it's a shock the Cowboys weren't better, with the lowlight being a seven-game losing streak toward the end of the 2013-14 campaign.
After that tough stretch, though, the team rattled off four wins in a row, including a critical triumph over Kansas to bolster Oklahoma State's resume. Only a buzzer-beater by Iowa State's Nez Long sent the Cowboys' finale into overtime, where they eventually lost 85-81:
But such an outcome just goes to show how one shot, one mistake or one flash of brilliance can change a team's fortunes. Better for the Cowboys to lose in heartbreaking fashion then than in the NCAA tournament.
One case against Oklahoma State is not only the inconsistency throughout the regular season, but also the lack of assets beyond their four surefire studs. While depth matters for some teams, the Cowboys foursome is strong enough carry them to the Elite Eight or further if it's clicking.
Arizona State
Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jordan Bachynski will deny opponents anything at the rim. At 7'2" and 248 pounds, he is a force who averages a ridiculous 4.2 blocks per game, so he can thwart pesky guards attempting to penetrate in the lane.
The Sun Devils also beat rival Arizona earlier in the season, and their two top scorers in Jahii Carson and Jermaine Marshall combine to shoot threes at better than 40 percent. That type of balance on the inside and outside makes Arizona State a tough matchup for anyone.
Recent struggles prompted concerns from some as to whether the Sun Devils would even make the NCAA tournament, but ESPN's Joe Lunardi believed there was no need to fret in Tempe, per AZCentral.com's Doug Haller:
Two crushing losses to Oregon and Oregon State to cap off the regular season hurt the Sun Devils' stock a bit, but they are capable of getting hot and of knocking off a top seed in the round of 32 or even in the Sweet 16.
There are a lot of factors to weigh here, and it all depends on how the draw plays out. This is the type of team that could be bounced early—even in the first game. However, with dynamic guard play and arguably the best paint enforcer in all of college basketball in Bachynski, it would be unwise to dismiss the Sun Devils, one of the tournament's biggest wild cards.
Ohio State
Thad Matta has had the Buckeyes in position to succeed for years, but it has yet to culminate in a national championship. This has been a rebuilding year of sorts in Columbus, with senior point guard Aaron Craft setting the tone as one of the best defenders in the country.
Defense has been what's kept Ohio State afloat as it has been unable to score the ball well, ranking second only to Arizona in the aforementioned KenPom.com rankings for adjusted defensive efficiency.
Craft establishes this attitude and will want to end his career in style. Seth Davis of CBS Sports noted all the strong qualities Craft brings to the squad:
This is an athletic Buckeyes bunch on the perimeter, whose top scorer in LaQuinton Ross is a swingman who can guard multiple positions. The only big presence the Buckeyes have is center Amir Williams, who averages just 23.5 minutes and 5.8 rebounds per contest.
Although the Buckeyes' inability to rebound the ball may be their undoing, they are a dangerous force not to be taken lightly. If Ross and Lenzelle Smith Jr. are on point on offense and Craft and Co. take care of the ball, Ohio State will be a tough out.
Cinderella Candidates
Harvard
Coach Tommy Amaker led Harvard to an upset victory in last year's NCAA tournament over New Mexico, who many picked to make a deep March run. A lot of members from that squad are still with the Crimson, so it stands to reason that there's another run in one of the premier academic schools in the world.
It's been a phenomenal job on Amaker's part to build a respectable program amid the gaudy expectations Harvard has in the classroom, where the first part of the term "student-athlete" is taken more seriously than at most institutions.
A 70-58 victory over Yale won the Ivy League for the Crimson and saw them become the first team to secure an NCAA tournament berth. Thus, they have been able to focus on the task at hand—improving and building upon last year's performance.
Even entertaining the notion of a run to the Sweet 16 seems ridiculous, but Harvard was just one step away from that stage last year. Five players average in double figures, led by returning starter Wesley Saunders. CBSSports.com's Jon Rothstein sang Saunders' praises in February, suggesting the junior is poised for a big NCAA tourney:
The Crimson shoot 38.7 percent from downtown as a team and 72.6 percent from the charity stripe—a recipe for success in the craziness of March Madness. Any team squaring off against Harvard in an opening-bracket fixture should be very afraid, for this team is on an eight-game winning streak and has enough depth to hang with even the best teams in America.
George Washington
Similar to Harvard in that five players score in double figures, the Colonials play in a better conference in the Atlantic 10 and have thus encountered sterner tests. They lost 75-68 to Saint Louis before rattling off three victories ahead of the conference tournament.
One big Cinderella story to come from the A-10 in recent years is VCU, now a top-25 team in the AP poll. The Colonials beat the Rams 76-66 on Jan. 14, adding to a stellar resume that features a win over Creighton, too.
As the team's official Twitter account alluded to, Isaiah Armwood and Patricio Garino both garnered all-conference defensive team honors, while Kevin Larsen was named the most improved player:
And that's not even to mention Maurice Creek, who leads George Washington in averaging 14.6 points but is the only surefire three-point shooter. Second-leading scorer Kethan Savage returned for the A-10 tournament, so that gives the Colonials an added spark ahead of their NCAA tournament voyage.
With Savage back in the fold, there's no telling how high George Washington could ascend. A solid third-place A-10 finish without such a critical piece of the puzzle in Savage shows the Colonials can overcome obstacles and should translate to a strong showing the rest of the way.
Bottom Line
There is a lot of parity in college basketball. A skewed balance of teetering power has been complicated by many of the best programs losing players to the NBA after one year, while other mid-majors have built teams filled with experienced players and can therefore challenge college basketball's titans.
But the Florida Gators have a combination of exceptional talent and experience working in their favor, along with the vengeance factor after falling just short of the Final Four in each of the past three years. It's hard to look past them in terms of selecting a national champion—regardless of how difficult their region turns out to be.
Wichita State does have the concern of facing a weaker schedule than even some of the middle-of-the-pack teams from power conferences, but should still make a strong run. Count them out at your own peril.
Otherwise, all bets are off as usual when selecting teams in brackets. The win-or-go-home format lends to crazy upsets and unfathomable developments, so hopefully this at least provides a baseline for bracket enthusiasts before taking the leap of shaky faith and putting their predictions in ink.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Ranking Every Team's Farm System 📊")
.jpg?w=600 "NFL star fakes injury at Savannah Bananas game")