Don't Overpay Strasburg

As expected, the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg with the first pick, and the Mariners took North Carolina 1B man Dustin Ackley with the second.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: There’s no way the Nationals should pay Strasburg more than $15 million to sign a contract.  No amatuer player, even Stephen Strasburg, is worth more than that under any circumstances.

After losing eighth pick Aaron Crow last year, there’s pressure on the Nats to get Strasburg signed, but if Strasburg doesn’t want to play baseball enough to sign a $15 million contract, let him go play in the Independent A leagues like Crow did.  Frankly, Strasburg won’t get a better offer next year, no matter what.  His value is at a peak right now and can only go down.

Aaron Crow is a perfect example.  He was drafted eighth last year, didn’t get the $4 million he wanted, so he went and pitched for the Fort Worth Cats in the independant A level American Association for parts of two seasons.  He pitched well, but suffered a minor injury before this year’s draft and fell to the 12th pick, where he was selected by the Royals.

Now the Royals have Crow at their mercy, because Crow really can’t go play in an independent A league again and not have his value plummet by next year’s draft.  In 2010, he’ll be two years older than any of the other pitchers coming out of college, and he will have wasted two years pitching a handful of games in an independant A league, where he won’t meaningfully develop at all.

The problem for Crow is that once he’s drafted, he stops pitching against live competition.  He didn’t pitch until late August of last year, and he stopped pitching for the Forth Worth Cats this year around the beginning of June.  He won’t pitch another professional game until the August 17 signing deadline, for fear that he might hurt himself and get nothing.

In fact, Crow would have been better served going back to college this last year and getting 15 college starts, as compared to the half dozen games he pitched for the Cats.

Last year’s 12th pick Jemile Weeks signed with the A’s for a $1.91 million signing bonus.  If the Royals hold the line at $2.1 million or $2.2 million on Crow this year, I don’t see that Crow has any leverage at all.  No matter what, I don’t see Crow getting more than the $3.5 million bonus Justin Smoak, the 11th pick last year, got from the Rangers.

When one of these greedy, dumb kids goes to play in an independant A league instead of signing a contract with a major league organization, the only person that really benefits is the player’s agent.  If one of Scott Boras’ clients refuses to sign and goes to an independent A league, it gives Boras leverage with respect to all the amatuer players he’ll represent in the future.  It’s a conflict of interest built into the system.

The most likely result for Stephen Strasburg if he refuses to sign a contract with the Nats, is that he won’t become a free agent and make the really big money until a year later than he would if he signs this year.