Shin-Soo Choo Merits a Closer Look

Those who have been reading www.rotoprofessor.comall year long know that I wasn’t as high on Shin-Soo Choo heading into the season as some other people were. 

I didn’t give a full prediction for him, but I said, “It looks like I’m pegging him as a player who will hit under 20 HR, hit .280-.290 and steal a handful of bases.” (Click here to go back and read my full preseason thoughts on him from December ‘08)

So, how close was I?  Let’s look at his numbers through Friday:

198 At-bats
.303 batting average (60 hits)
7 home runs
32 RBI
32 runs
9 stolen bases
.413 on base percentage
.465 slugging percentage
.366 batting average on balls in play

He’s outperformed the average I thought thus far, but do we believe he’s going to maintain that high of a BABIP? I know he was at .373 in 370 AB last season, but of those who had enough AB to qualify for the batting title there were only six hitters who maintained a BABIP of .361 or better. 

I still don’t see Choo as being a good enough hitter to maintain this type of average and think a regression is in order. He’s striking out 23.2 percent of the time, right along the lines of his career mark of 25.9 percent, so if his luck slows down the average is going to go with it.

I don’t think a major drop-off is coming, but I would hold my preseason projection of the .280-.290 range.

The power is also right around where I’d have expected and there’s no reason to think he’s not going to continue. He’s posting a FB% of 33.1 percent and a HR/FB rate of 13.7 percent. Both are very realistic numbers. 

He’s not going to blow up and suddenly start raking his way to being a 30 HR hitter. His numbers don’t suggest that and they never have. It’s just going to be more of the same, which is extremely usable.

Where I was off was the speed. He had only four SB last season and while he had shown speed in the minor leagues it had never translated to the majors. He had just 9 career stolen bases heading into the season, but has already matched that mark and appears to be well on his way to a potential 20/20 campaign.

He’s also been doing a great job producing runs, taking advantage of injuries and inability to grab a spot in the middle of the Indians lineup. Travis Hafner missed a lot of time with injury, though he is now back into the mix. Jhonny Peralta has not quite gotten going yet either. 

Put those two together and Choo has seen 130 AB in the clean-up spot.

While there, he has hit .315 with three HR, 21 RBI, 17 R and six SB. That’s a great line, but it’s not your prototypical power stroke for that spot in the order. As people get healthy and right the ship, I don’t see him staying in this spot. 

Maybe he’ll settle into the No. 2 spot, or maybe No. 5 or No. 6, but either way the potential is still going to be there to both drive in runs and score runs.

I still do not see him as a great outfielder and he wouldn’t be my top choice in shallower formats that require just three outfielders, but he is clearly usable. In deeper formats where you have to have five outfielders, however, he is a very good option.

Any player who has the potential to go 20/20 is going to have value. I don’t think my preseason prediction is going to be that far off, but with the speed he’s showing, he’s clearly putting things together.

What do you think? Is Choo a player you believe in? Am I being too critical?

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