What Can We Expect from David Wright?

For all the talk of the demise of David Ortiz and the struggles of Geovany Soto, after Saturday’s games they find themselves just one home run behind David Wright, a clear-cut first round draft choice.

After sitting between 26 and 33 home runs for the past four seasons, Wright’s power has seemingly disappeared, with just 3 HR in his first 197 AB (53 games).

This isn’t the first time that owners have endured a power outage from Wright.  Remember two years ago when he failed to hit a home run in April?  He still finished the season with 30 long balls, but this appears to be different.

Do you want to blame it on the new ballpark, with Wright altering his approach to maximize his output?  That’s possible, but I’m not buying it.

Do you want to blame it on something else or has the power just all but disappeared?  First, let’s look at the numbers (through Saturday):

197 At Bats
.340 Batting Average (67 Hits)
3 Home Runs
33 RBI
35 Runs
13 Stolen Bases
.440 On Base Percentage
.492 Slugging Percentage
.457 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Outside of the power outage (which we’ll get to shortly), the first thing that jumps out is the unbelievable BABIP.  Does anyone actually believe that he can maintain that type of number for much longer?

Of course not, but there are other things to look at that may provide him the potential to keep the average as high as it is.  His strikeout rate right now is a miserable 27.4%.  Over the previous four seasons he was at:

• 2005 - 19.7 percent
  
• 2006 - 19.4 percent
  
• 2007 - 19.0 percent
  
• 2008 - 18.8 percent
  

That’s the model of consistency, far from what he has looked like this season.  Are we supposed to just ignore what he’s proven he is time and time again, simply believing he has regressed this far at 26-years old?  I’m just not buying it. 

His strikeout rate is bound to come down, which will allow him to maintain a higher average even when his luck turns.

It is also nice to see him showing some speed once again, though he needs to learn to pick his spots a little bit better.  After stealing 15 bases last season, the 13 so far are nice, though he has been caught eight times.  There’s aggressiveness and there’s going a little bit too far. 

The Mets may reel him in slightly (there was talk on the telecast that Jerry Manuel spoke to him and Carlos Beltran about being slightly less aggressive on the bases), which could lead to a decline.  Something to at least keep in mind.

Now, onto the power, which I know is in the forefront of everyone’s mind.  It’s not the flyball rate that is costing him.  Look at how his numbers compare over the past few years:

• 2007 - 37.5 percent
  
• 2008 - 38.2 percent
  
• 2009 - 38.9 percent
  

It’s just that the power seems to have completely disappeared.  The past two seasons he’s had HR/FB rates of 16.1 percent and 16.7 percent, but this year he is sitting at a measly 5.4 percent.  Obviously, a number like that is not going to bring about a significant home run total.

He has been getting other extra base hits (15 doubles and three triples), so it is not like there aren’t signs of potential growth. 

I said earlier, but it bears repeating.  Wright has shown too much power in the past to see it all but disappear so suddenly.  He has the potential to maintain his average and it is not like we haven’t seen this type of struggles from him in the past.  Do not give up on him this quickly; you are going to come to regret it.

What does everyone else think?  Do you think Wright will come around in the power department?

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