Strikeforce: Lawler Vs. Shields Tips

Hey, welcome to tips/predictions for Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields.

The odds are what return you would get from betting €1.00/$1.00/£1.00 on any fighter.

Example: Arlovski is 1.20, meaning that if 1.00 is put on him, you win win 0.20, along with your original 1.00.

Rogers is 4.00, meaning that if 1.00 is put on him, 3.00 is won, along with your original 1.00. Simple right?

Kevin 'The Monster' Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead
(205lbs/86kg)


Kevin Randleman
17-12-0

USA

+Good wrestling; NCAA title in 1997
+Strength still intact
+Still possesses punching power

-Bad on the ground
-Weak chin
-Does not use combinations and throws power hooks
-Second fight after recovering from staph





Notable Wins:
Mirko Filipovic(2004)
Renato Sobral(2002)



Mike Whitehead
23-6-0

USA

+ADCC qualifier
+Three time All American wrestler

-Lacking quality striking













Analysis

Randleman was a NCAA Division I champion back in 1997, but this is 2009, and Randleman is in the downward stage of his career. Following his 2006 first round submission loss to Shogun Rua, Randleman developed a severe staph infection, and only returned in an unconvincing decision win over Ryo Kawamura in 2008. His stand up still probably packs a punch, but does not use combos or anything other than power punches. He does not have a good chin, and sub-defense is nothing special.

Mike Whitehead was never a top tier fighter, but he at least has some ground skills and a wrestling base, but with limited striking—Babalu should not be able to outstrike any upper echelon light heavyweight. Whitehead is a lower tier fighter, with well roundedness, but without prominent skills in any area.

My Take

While miles is past his prime, Randleman shouldn't have trouble out-wrestling Whitehead and getting the decision. But he is unpredictable and a Monster. He might end up diving into a submission.

Both Randleman and Whitehead enter at €1.87, so of course I advise betting on Randleman.


Phil 'The New York Badass' Baroni vs. Joe 'Diesel' Riggs
(170lbs/77kg)


Phil Baroni
13-10-0

USA

+Decent boxing/kickboxing
+Punching power still there, for the most part

-Still no submission game
-Lax defense













Joe Riggs
29-10-0-1

USA

+Former All American wrestler
+Knows how to punch

-Bad ground game
-Wrestling skill not on par with his credentials -Questionable chin









Analysis

Phil Baroni, while past his best, possesses decent boxing, and still has decent punching power. Baroni, really, was never an evolved MMA fighter, without good ground skills and a record of 13-10.

He was and is a one dimensional striker, which is why they matched him up with Joe Riggs, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blue belt. This is going to be a stand up affair, with large likelihood of fireworks.

Riggs had a better record, 29-10, but never beat anyone of note—except for Nick Diaz in 2004. Riggs really does not have as much going for him as Baroni does as a fighter.

My Take

I'll take Baroni by KO, similar to Misaki. I think Riggs is too slow to wrestle with Baroni, and I give Baroni an edge in striking. Baroni enters at €1.91, while Riggs enters at €1.83.


Nick 'Bad Boy' Diaz vs. Scott 'Hands of Steel' Smith
(179lbs/81kg)


Nick Diaz
19-7-0

USA

+Great heart
+Great chin
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good boxer

-Tendency to smoke weed may lead to unpredictable side effects—and lead to "Wins" being turned into "No Contests."
-Defensively he is bad—he is conent to block punches with his face.
-Not skilled in wrestling





Scott Smith
16-5-0

USA

+Good striking power
+Decent overall striking

-Holes in defense
-Weak on the ground










Analysis

Nick Diaz is a solid boxer with an awesome chin, who doesn't possess one punch KO power, but 100 punch KO power; i.e., he's content to pepper at his opponents until they fall down. Added to this, he is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie, and has submitted Takanori Gomi using a gogoplata, while having a broken orbital and being high on marijuana.

Scott Smith is a KO puncher, with 13 of his 15 wins coming by (T)KO, but came up woefully short against Robbie Lawler last summer and has had zero relevant wins. Smith is one dimensional brawler for the most part, with losses to James Irvin and Patrick Coté not reassuring.

My Take

I see Diaz losing the stand up, taking some punishment, then giving some, then winning the stand up, and then winning the fight by TKO. But with Diaz at €1.31, and Smith at €3.50, it's way too risky to bet on Diaz, especially since its not that hard to hit his jaw, and since Smith is a hard hitter.

I'd advise betting on Smith.


Andrei 'The Pitbull' Arlovski vs. Brett 'The Grim' Rogers
(265lbs/120kg)

Andrei Arlovski
15-6-0

Belarus

+World class technical boxing technique; trains in one of the best boxing camps on earth
+Fast hands packing lethal knockout power
+Good kickboxing to complement
+Excellent sprawl
+International Master of Sports at Sport Sambo; won silver medal in World Sambo Championship and a silver medal in the Sambo World Cup in about 1999

-Questionable chin
-Psychological aspect may be an issue
-Can be overaggressive

Notable Wins
Roy Nelson(2008)
Ben Rothwell(2008)
Tim Sylvia(2005)




Brett Rogers
9-0-0

USA

+KO power in hands
+Size advantage; 6'5 and 265lbs

-Striking rough and unclean, consists of little more than hooks
-Bad sprawl
-No submission game

Analysis

Arlovski is a heavy favorite here and rightly so; he is one of the best boxers in MMA, and Rogers is nothing special as far as striking goes, and even less regarding the rest of his game.

Arlovski trains with Freddy Roach, a boxing trainer who trains/trained with the likes of Oscar de la Hoya, Manny Pacquiao, Mike Tyson, and Wladimir Klitschko; and his standup seems a fluid and as explosive as ever. But one has to keep in mind how he reacted after his TKO loss to Tim Sylvia, in which he lost his killer instinct completely, and it wasn't until his demolition of Ben Rothwell in 2008 that he unleashed on his opponent without timidity.

My Take

Only way Rogers takes this is by an extremely unlikely power shot to Arlovski's jaw. He may have the power to KO the Belorussian, but Arlovski's jaw, while not steel, isn't crystal. Rogers will need to land something significant to take him out.

It won't come to that in all likelihood. Arlovski by boxing clinic, KO, Round 1. Arlovski is at €1.20, while Rogers is a massive underdog at €4.00. There is such an incredible difference in their striking—not to mention ground games—that I am still more drawn towards Arlovski than Rogers.


'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields
(185lbs/84kg)

Robbie Lawler
16-4-0

USA

+Hard hitter
+Good striker; strings good Muay Thai combinations together
+Very good finisher with damaging ground and pound

-Can get extremely wild when striking
-Sprawl is not top level
-Poor ground game






Jake Shields
22-4-1

USA

+Very good wrestler
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt; came 3rd in ADCC 77kg in 2005.
+Never submitted

-Average standup
-Can be passive in dominant positions









Analysis

Lawler is a hard hitter, and 15 of his 18 wins have come by (T)KO. Jake Shields is a good wrestler riding an 11 fight win streak, and has some great sub defense, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but is not an exciting fighter, and can be timid enough when in dominant position. But he is very good at not letting people up, so I think Lawler may be in trouble.

Lawler is a versatile kickboxer, and this all depends on his sprawl. If it stays standing, Lawler is good, but that will be crucial. Shields does have good wrestling credentials, qualifying for the US in the Fila Nationals and World Team Trials in the junior as well as University Men's Division's, and finishing second in the Amateur Athletic Union Freestyle Championships. He also has a bronze medal from ADCC 2005 in the 77kg class.

My Take

Lawler's sub loss to Miller was not that long ago, in 2006, and Shields is more than capable of doing the same, but I would expect a decision before a submission, in that case.

I would still give Lawler the edge, since his striking is so much better than Shields, and he has a size advantage, but it is a dangerous matchup for Lawler in terms of "style vs. style."

Lawler comes in at €1.83 and Shields at €1.91, so betting on Lawler makes sense.