Not Another Ortiz Lament: The Real Problem With The Red Sox Line-Up

I've noticed in puttering around on ESPN's baseball stats pages that the four teams (Tampa, Boston, Cleveland, and New York) that have drawn the most walks in the American League have also scored the most runs.

Conversely, Toronto leads the league with 559 hits, but they're sixth in the league in runs.

The notion that on-base percentage rules is not a novelty. Anyone who has watched a game on NESN over the last few years has heard Don Orsillo regularly express his admiration for the Red Sox's "patience at the plate." Rarely has Orsillo's faith been more richly rewarded, nor his point more thoroughly illustrated, than when Boston posted six runs on only six hits (with no HRs) and nine walks in Thursday's victory in Detroit.

Of course, five walks and all six runs came from squeezing Dontrelle Willis' unfortunate meltdown for all it was worth, but it takes discipline to hold off of bad pitches, and it's that sort of discipline, combined with a generally well-balanced lineup, that have kept the Sox offense in business this year.

Kevin Youkilis leads the AL and the majors with a pretty ridiculous .483 on-base percentage (OBP). Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay are both in the top 10 in the AL, with OBPs over .400. Despite his .253 batting average, J.D. Drew has a .374 OBP, which should get up closer to 400 when he starts hitting better (his career OBP is .391, and his career batting average is .283).

Despite lower on-base numbers toward the bottom of the order, Varitek and Lowell are both slugging over .500 and Lowell and Ellsbury are hitting above .300. Boston has five guys who are on pace to hit at least 25 HRs, and four guys hitting over .300.

Other than the sad state of Ortiz's hitting, my only concern offensively is with the poor production of Julio Lugo and Nick Green on the base path. Both of them are getting on base okay(.341 and .352, respectively), but they each have only one steal and have combined to score only 24 runs.

It would be one thing to complain about low batting averages, since they split time and therefore have trouble getting in a consistent hitting rhythm. But I can't see how the same could be said for base-stealing. Lugo is supposed to be a 20-30 base stealer, but in 25 games has only attempted to steal one bag. Green looks pretty fit, but in four attempts he's been caught three times.

I'm not sorry the Sox have had Beckett and Lowell, but considering the oft-mentioned "shortstop carousel" of the last five seasons, I dream about how perfect the line-up would look if Hanley Ramirez were covering short.

Maybe we can buy out his current contract after the season?

When it comes to big bucks and long-term deals, the Marlins always seem to have preferred cash and prospects.

But back to reality. Jed Lowrie is coming back. SoxProspects credits him with "above average speed on the base path." In college, however, Lowrie never stole more than six bases in a season, and in 86 games with the Red Sox he has one steal on one attempt.

Obviously, just because the steroid era is ending and Manny Ramirez is gone, doesn't mean I should expect the Red Sox to dirty up their uniforms and start stealing bases like it was 1979 in the National League. After all, I did already mention that the Sox are one of the the AL's top four run-scoring teams. But 24 runs scored and one steal by all Red Sox shortstops, including Lowrie and Velasquez, seems pretty weak, considering the relative strength of the top of the order and the base-stealing numbers that other teams' nine hitters have put up.

Yes, with batters like Pedroia, Youkilis, and Drew/Ellsbury coming up, there's an imperative to keep the inning going and not risk cheap outs, but look at the production from other number nine hitters on good hitting teams.

Brett Gardner has 24 steals and 25 runs scored. Ben Francisco has nine steals and 26 runs scored (Asdrubal Cabrera was moved up to the two spot). Elvis Andrus, similarly, has nine steals and 24 runs to his credit.

These three guys, each of whom usually bat ninth, have individually scored more runs than the combined output of Lugo, Green, Lowrie and Velasquez. Each also has more than four times the number of steals.

What is to be done?

Jack Wilson strikes me as a less than ideal option, because of his low batting average, OBP, and steals. Either he or Jason Donald would be defensive upgrades, and Donald can steal bases, but then again, shouldn't Lugo be stealing bases already?

Though it's always boring to stick with what you've got with the trade deadline on the horizon, perhaps impressing upon Lugo the need to run the bases even if he's not the clear starter is the best option out there. It's not as if the Sox are going to go out and grab Chase Utley, Ramirez, or Ian Kinsler in the next two months.

We may not have steak at home, but Boston's current options look slightly more appetizing than the dollar menu burgers on the market. We may be stuck with Lowrie and the grumbling Lugo.