NFL Playoff Scenarios: Examining the Divisional Week's Storylines, Possibilities

Eric MackJan 5, 2014

Peyton Manning likely doesn't care who his Denver Broncos will face in the divisional playoffs, but he should breathe a sigh of relief he won't have to face Andrew Luck...at least not yet.

Can you imagine the indignity for Manning's legacy if the prodigy that replaced him in Indianapolis went up to Denver and eliminated him and his Broncos in the greatest statistical year for a quarterback ever?

The catcalls for Manning being a regular-season stat monger and not a "true winner"—whatever that means—would be unbearable. Those arguments always disgust me as trite and childish.

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That is not to say it wouldn't be tremendous theater. Popcorn-worthy stuff.

Manning has already endured enough criticism for having won just one Super Bowl, so let's not get too crazy after Luck finally won his first playoff game in his second try.

Indianapolis Colts defensive back Darius Butler, impressed with Manning's replacement, told the Boston Globe's Christopher L. Gasper:

"
It seems like half the games since I've been here have been some kind of second-half comeback or fourth-quarter drive or something, so you kind of get that feeling that Andrew Luck never lost a game. Time only ran out. You have faith in that guy and that offense.
"

The San Diego Chargers' victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday robbed us of a Manning showdown against Luck, but maybe only for one week. The Denver Broncos will now play the Chargers instead of the Colts, who will travel to New England to face the Patriots.

So, we won't get Luck vs. Manning, but we do get to see what Luck can pull off against someone by the name of Tom Brady.

The Luck Legend Grows

Luck's Colts stayed alive only with a miraculous 28-point rally that stands as the second-largest comeback victory in NFL playoff history. He has won quickly and impressively, while Manning's rise in Indy was famously more gradual...and painful.

Remember, Jim Mora's famed "Playoffs?!" tirade was near the beginning of the Manning era. Mora's mantra became legend, even as he ripped a young Manning—without naming him by name—for his error-prone ways.

Adam Vinatieri knows about how a quick-rising quarterback phenomenon can take over. Vinatieri was a part of the Brady legacy with the Patriots. Vinatieri is now a bridge to the Luck legacy as a Colts teammate.

Vinatieri told the Globe's Gasper:

"
[Luck] is a special guy. He's the type of guy that doesn't come around very often. There are a lot of great quarterbacks in the league that can do all the throws and can manage a game, but he has got that competitive edge.
It's just fun to watch him work because you know that when he has got the ball, and we've got some time, amazing things are going to happen. He's got that 'it' factor. It's hard to put your finger on it, but he's got it, for sure.
"

Luck's offensive fumble recovery for a touchdown Saturday night is likely to go down as a signature play that will illustrate his career. Vinatieri marveled to the Globe's Gasper:

"
I just told [Luck], I said, 'All your touchdown passes and all that great stuff [Saturday]. That was one of the best plays I've ever seen in my life. That was so awesome. ... It was pretty special.
"

No. 1 Seed More Curse Than Blessing

Regardless of Manning dodging that potential lose-lose situation against Luck, his Broncos cannot feel too comfortable against the Chargers next Sunday.

We spend most of the regular-season playoff race debating and analyzing how teams can clinch the coveted home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but it hasn't been much help this past decade, especially in the AFC. No AFC No. 1 seed has won the Super Bowl since the New England Patriots in 2003.

"Since the NFL adopted the 12-team playoff format in 1990, only 21 of the 46 (45.7 percent) No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl, with nine No. 1 seeds being crowned champions (19.6 percent)," according to the NFL media notes.

YEAR	AFC NO. 1	RESULT	NFC NO. 1	RESULT
1990	Buffalo	Lost Super Bowl XXV	San Francisco	Lost NFC Championship
1991	Buffalo	Lost Super Bowl XXVI	Washington	Won Super Bowl XXVI
1992	Pittsburgh	Lost Divisional	San Francisco	Lost NFC Championship
1993	Buffalo	Lost Super Bowl XXVIII	Dallas	Won Super Bowl XXVIII
1994	Pittsburgh	Lost AFC Championship	San Francisco	Won Super Bowl XXIX
1995	Kansas City	Lost Divisional	Dallas	Won Super Bowl XXX
1996	Denver	Lost Divisional	Green Bay	Won Super Bowl XXXI
1997	Kansas City	Lost Divisional	San Francisco	Lost NFC Championship
1998	Denver	Won Super Bowl XXXIII	Minnesota	Lost NFC Championship
1999	Jacksonville	Lost AFC Championship	St. Louis	Won Super Bowl XXXIV
2000	Tennessee	Lost Divisional	New York Giants	Lost Super Bowl XXXV
2001	Pittsburgh	Lost AFC Championship	St. Louis	Lost Super Bowl XXXVI
2002	Oakland	Lost Super Bowl XXXVII	Philadelphia	Lost NFC Championship
2003	New England	Won Super Bowl XXXVIII	Philadelphia	Lost NFC Championship
2004	Pittsburgh	Lost AFC Championship	Philadelphia	Lost Super Bowl XXXIX
2005	Indianapolis	Lost Divisional	Seattle	Lost Super Bowl XL
2006	San Diego	Lost Divisional	Chicago	Lost Super Bowl XLI
2007	New England	Lost Super Bowl XLII	Dallas	Lost Divisional
2008	Tennessee	Lost Divisional	New York Giants	Lost Divisional
2009	Indianapolis	Lost Super Bowl XLIV	New Orleans	Won Super Bowl XLIV
2010	New England	Lost Divisional	Atlanta	Lost Divisional
2011	New England	Lost Super Bowl XLVI	Green Bay	Lost Divisional
2012	Denver	Lost Divisional	Atlanta	Lost NFC Championship
2013	Denver	TBD	Seattle	TBD

Only two AFC No. 1 seeds in the modern era have gone on to win the Super Bowl, the 1998 Broncos and 2003 Patriots. Only two No. 1 seeds in either conference have won the Super Bowl this century.

That bye week might be needed to heal up from the rigors of the 17-week NFL season, but it sure has meant more to rust than rest.

Chargers Have Hope

You can be sure Chargers fans are taking the above historical results to heart. It gives them hope of beating Manning in Denver in the divisional round. Heck, all three of the AFC's other remaining teams have a victory over the AFC's No. 1 seed, as NFL insider Adam Schefter points out in a tweet:

Remarkable.

The losses to the Patriots and Colts came on the road. The Chargers have already stolen one in Denver, on a Thursday night of Week 15 (Dec. 12). The two teams play a month later for the right to face Luck or Brady in the AFC Championship.

Since 2005, No. 6 seeds are 6-2 against No. 1 seeds in the divisional playoffs. H/T to Schefter again for that pearl of wisdom:

You can bet Manning knows this all too well, though. The Pittsburgh Steelers' January 2006 upset of Manning's Colts started that run. That year, the NFC's top-seeded Seattle Seahawks beat the sixth-seeded Washington Redskins only to succumb to those Steelers in the Super Bowl, by the way.

The only other No. 1 seed to beat a No. 6 since 2005? Manning's Colts eliminating the Baltimore Ravens in 2009.

Another No. 1 vs. No. 6 Rematch

The NFC's No. 6 seed, the New Orleans Saints, has also already played its divisional playoff opponent this season The Saints lost at the Seattle Seahawks resoundingly 34-7 on Dec. 2.

The Saints and Chargers are the only playoff teams assured to have to play on the road in the Conference Championship week. Even the 49ers and Colts can host a Conference Championship Game if the cards fall in their favor.

Remaining NFC Scenarios

No. 1 Seattle Seahawks: Play host to either Carolina or San Francisco
No. 2 Carolina Panthers: Travel to Seattle or play host to New Orleans
No. 5 San Francisco 49ers: Travel to Seattle or play host to New Orleans
No. 6 New Orleans Saints: Travel to Carolina or San Francisco

Remaining AFC Scenarios

No. 1 Denver Broncos: Play host to either New England or Indianapolis
No. 2 New England Patriots: Travel to Denver or play host to San Diego
No. 4 Indianapolis Colts: Travel to Denver or play host to San Diego
No. 6 San Diego Chargers: Travel to Indianapolis or New England

Speaking of Quarterbacks Winning Early...

The Seahawks' Russell Wilson has won 24 games in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era, according to NFLmedia.com. Luck is tied for second with Ben Roethlisberger with 22 victories.

Beyond Wilson and Luck, only seven other quarterbacks in NFL history have started playoff games in each of their first two seasons.

QUARTERBACK	SEASONS	TEAM
Dan Marino	1983-84	Miami Dolphins
Bernie Kosar	1985-86	Cleveland Browns
Shaun King	1999-2000	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Roethlisberger	2004-05	Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Flacco	2008-09	Baltimore Ravens
Mark Sanchez	2009-10	New York Jets
Andy Dalton	2011-12	Cincinnati Bengals
Andrew Luck	2012-13	Indianapolis Colts
Russell Wilson*	2012-13	Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco's Super Encore?

The defending champion Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs this year, leaving just the San Francisco 49ers alive to return to the Super Bowl. The 49ers then survived the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers and the famed "frozen tundra" Sunday.

San Francisco is the 14th Super Bowl runner-up to make the postseason since 1990. None of them won the Super Bowl. In fact, no team has even returned to the Super Bowl after losing it since the Buffalo Bills of the early 1990s.

Until last January, no Super Bowl runner-up had even made it to the Conference Championship the following season. The New England Patriots did that last year, only to fall to the Ravens.

Here are the results of the Super Bowl runners-up in the postseason since 1990:

YEAR	TEAM	RECORD	RESULT
1991	Buffalo	13-3	Won division; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVI
1992	Buffalo	11-5	Wild Card; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVII
1993	Buffalo	12-4	Won division; Advanced to Super Bowl XXVIII
1995	San Diego	9-7	Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
1996	Pittsburgh	10-6	Won division; Advanced to Divisional
1997	New England	10-6	Won division; Advanced to Divisional
1998	Green Bay	11-5	Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
2000	Tennessee	13-3	Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2006	Seattle	9-7	Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2009	Arizona	10-6	Won division; Advanced to Divisional
2010	Indianapolis	10-6	Won division; Advanced to Wild Card
2011	Pittsburgh	12-4	Wild Card; Advanced to Wild Card
2012	New England	12-4	Won division; Advanced to AFC Championship
2013	San Francisco	12-4	Wild Card; TBD