Is Each Top MLB Free Agent Being Overpriced or Underpriced This Winter?
Few things in professional sports can anger, annoy and befuddle fans like the inflating salaries in Major League Baseball's free-agent market. On a yearly basis, lucrative, long-term contracts are awarded to players, guaranteeing millions of dollars over exorbitant pacts.
Despite the vitriol at owners, agents and players, the game of baseball is healthy with revenue from ticket sales, television contracts and advanced media. When the supply and demand of talent is on the open market, contract figures can inflate.
On the other hand, even if $50 million deals seem gigantic, some players can be underpriced due to concerns about age, durability and the number of suitors in the mix for a certain player.
Thus far, two of Yahoo! Sports' best 10 free agents are off the board. In a scene that has become all too familiar for Major League Baseball fans, both are headed to the New York Yankees. When Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury agreed, respectively, to join the Bronx Bombers, the top of the market lost two big stars.
For the remaining eight, their markets are constantly evolving. Here's a look at if each is being under or overpriced by the market, agents and free-spending general managers looking to make a big splash.
Robinson Cano
1 of 8
The top free agent on the open market, possibly weeks away from garnering the biggest contract of the winter, is currently undervalued in Major League Baseball.
Yes, folks, Robinson Cano is currently underpriced.
Before screaming about the millions of dollars he poised to receive, consider this: Over the last five years, no position player in baseball has posted a higher WAR than the 34.2 Cano has provided the New York Yankees, per Baseball-Reference.
That number is higher than Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun or Andrew McCutchen.
When evaluating the cost of greatness, Cano and his agents have a right to ask for one of the highest contracts in the history of baseball. It doesn't mean they'll actually garner a deal over $200 million, but it's a bit shocking to see the New York Yankees hold a firm line at $170 million, per Andy McCullough of The Star-Ledger.
Prior to the start of the offseason, I thought a deal in the range of $185 million would be fair for a player of Cano's caliber, but unless the ownership in Seattle is willing to jump into the $200 million range, per George A. King III of the New York Post, Cano will continue to be a great player without an earth-shattering offer.
Market Value: Underpriced
Masahiro Tanaka
2 of 8
Due to a delay in the posting process from Japan, the market for Masahiro Tanaka hasn't totally formed yet, but expect a frenzy when it finally commences this winter.
If a system is ratified that puts a cap on the top bid a team can post, anywhere from 10-20 teams could make a realistic run at Tanaka in free agency. Of course, if it gets to that point, only a few teams could realistically go over the top for an unknown commodity.
At this point, Tanaka is trending to becoming an overpriced and overhyped pitcher for two reasons: Yu Darvish and the underwhelming class of well-known starting pitching free agents.
Over the last few years, Darvish has dominated the American League West, making Texas look brilliant for investing over $100 million, between the posting fee and contract, for his services. Although Tanaka may be one tier below Darvish, the prospect of finding the next great Japanese ace is too tantalizing for some clubs to pass up.
Furthermore, the idea of paying free agents like Matt Garza, Ervin Santana or Ublado Jimenez major dollars is worrisome. All are good, but all come with flaws. Their warts, along with the $49 million garnered by Ricky Nolasco in Minnesota, are conspiring to make Tanaka look even better.
Market Value: Overpriced
Shin-Soo Choo
3 of 8
The basic tenant of successful offensive baseball is to avoid making outs. Thus, as made famous by Moneyball, on-base percentage is the most important statistic and measurement of an offensive player.
With that established, the market should be exploding for free-agent outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Over the last six years, Choo has posted a .392 on-base percentage for Cleveland and Cincinnati. During that time frame, he's scored 468 runs.
After Jacoby Ellsbury's seven-year, $153 million deal with the New York Yankees, it's fair to wonder if Choo will garner close to that amount. According to SportsNet New York's MetsBlog, Choo is seeking a $100 million deal.
Even if the market boosts Choo closer to $120 million, he's an undervalued offensive asset to any club seeking a difference maker at the top of the lineup.
Since the start of the 2008 season, Choo has bested Ellsbury in games played (788-682), home runs (101-62), WAR (22.8-22.4) and on-base percentage (.392-.349), per Fangraphs.
Unless Choo's market explodes into the Ellsbury range, the 31-year-old outfielder is undervalued at $100 million.
Market Value: Underpriced
.png?w=256)
Carlos Beltran
4 of 8
According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free-agent outfielder Carlos Beltran has a three-year, $48 million offer on the table, likely from the Kansas City Royals.
If those numbers are accurate, the market has gravitated to what Beltran has accomplished in his career and far from what he has left in the tank.
Beltran, despite another big October, reputation for clutch hitting and borderline Hall of Fame credentials, is in decline. Committing three years and nearly $50 million to an outfielder that will need at-bats at designated hitter, days off to rest brittle knees and the forum of October baseball to provide peak value is a very, very risky proposition.
If the offers for Beltran had stayed within the two-year, $32 million range, the length and amount would have made sense for a player far removed from the ability to carry a lineup through the rigors of a 162-game season.
In baseball, reputation can supersede future production. For Beltran, it has priced him out of range for any logical front office.
Market Value: Overpriced
Ubaldo Jimenez
5 of 8
As Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer explained in his detailed free-agent profile of Jimenez, the 29-year-old has set himself up for a contract in excess of $15-17 million per season. Despite an inconsistent career, Jimenez turned it on in the second half of the 2013 season by pitching to a 1.82 ERA, per Baseball-Reference.
When Jimenez, guided by his agents, declined Cleveland's one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer, it sent a signal to baseball: $15-17 million, over a long-term deal, is more than a realistic goal for the right-handed starter.
Thus far, the pursuit of Jimenez has been quiet. A team or two will emerge, most likely during the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla., but many teams could be scared off by a pitcher who posted a 5.03 ERA during the 2011 and 2012 campaigns.
Supply and demand, along with Cleveland's willingness to offer Jimenez over $14 million for one season, dictate the type of offer noted above, but that doesn't make it a good value for Jimenez's next team.
Market Value: Overpriced
Hiroki Kuroda
6 of 8
Hiroki Kuroda, months removed from an excellent season with the New York Yankees, is a free agent and available to the highest bidder.
Considering the lack of activity, aside from a one-year offer, per Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York, made by Yankees general manager Brian Cashman to bring him back to the Bronx for 2014, little talk generates around the veteran Japanese pitching star.
To be fair, most of that centers around the perception, per Newsday, that Kuroda will only pitch in New York, return for a last dance in Japan or retire. Even if that is true, it would behoove any big-market, pitching-hungry team to at least make an offer.
On a one-year pact, even for more than $16 million, Kuroda is one of the surest bets in Major League Baseball. Since arriving in Los Angeles for the 2008 season, the now 38-year-old righty has pitched to an ERA of 3.76 or below in every single season. Over the last two years, pitching in Yankee Stadium and the American League East, Kuroda has posted an ERA+ of 125.
Kuroda flies under the radar during the winter but shines every summer. If he stays in Major League Baseball, he'll help anchor a rotation in 2014.
Market Value: Underpriced
Mike Napoli
7 of 8
Last winter, Mike Napoli agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. After concerns about lingering hip issues voided the deal, the team and player agreed to a one-year, $5 million settlement for 2013, per the Boston Globe.
Now, one year later, Napoli is back on the market, a World Series champion and with a year of health under his belt. Also, as it pertains to his free-agent profile this offseason, Napoli transitioned from catcher to first base without a hitch.
Solid defense at first base, combined with a big, powerful bat, would seem destined to break the bank in free agency. As Alex Speier of WEEI.com astutely pointed out, only 27 hitters in baseball last season produced at least 20 home runs and an on-base percentage of .350.
Two of those players, Robinson Cano and Shin-Soo Choo, may be undervalued, but they are virtually locks to earn over $100 million this winter. Thus far, those types of big offers haven't rolled in for Napoli.
Outside of Cano, Napoli has the ability to best any free-agent hitter on the market over the next couple of seasons. It's likely that he'll do it at a fraction of the cost of Ellsbury and Choo.
Market Value: Underpriced
Ervin Santana
8 of 8
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Ervin Santana is seeking a contract in excess of $100 million this winter. Normally, free-agent sticker prices are taken with a grain of salt, but Santana's asking price, when viewed the prism of his mediocre career, is startling.
To be fair, Santana had a very nice campaign in 2013 for the Kansas City Royals. In 211 innings, the 30-year-old right-handed pitcher sported a 3.24 ERA, 3.16 SO/BB and 127 ERA+.
Of course, $100 million deals shouldn't be awarded based on one season. While 2013 was a tremendous campaign for Santana, he's the owner of three separate seasons with an ERA over 5.00. In nine big league campaigns, Santana has been a really poor pitcher one third of the time.
Since debuting in 2005 as a 22-year-old for the Los Angeles Angels, Santana has pitched to an ERA+ of 100 in nearly 1,700 innings. That is more than enough of a sample size to establish how average Santana is as a major league pitcher. He clearly deserves a long-term deal, but $100 million is mind-boggling.
Over the last nine years, sorting by pitchers with at least 1,000 innings during that frame, 45 pitchers have posted a better ERA than Santana, per Baseball-Reference. Some names above him on that list: Aaron Harang, Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano.
If you can find the $100 million contract awarded to pitchers of that caliber, let me know.
Market Value: Overpriced
.png?w=480)
