NFL Week 14 Odds, Lines, Spreads for Each Game

From a 9-5 record in sunny Mexico to under .500 and some type of flu, these Week 14 NFL picks against the spread are all about finding reality.

For instance, it's going to be cold now. It's December. It doesn't matter where you live; it's hoodie time.

It's also the time we sort out the real contenders from those that are just hanging around. Can any team from the NFC North step up? Is there any reason to invite the AFC South to the party?

It's time to find out.

Last Week's Record: 6-9-1

Six Week Challenge: 15-14-1

Season Record: 78-107-7

All spreads sourced from FootballLocks.com. All advanced metrics and rankings courtesy of Pro Football Focus. 

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

I'm a writer. Thus, I'm prone to bouts of hyperbole.

But I have to say it: The Jacksonville Jaguars are merely below average.

They're not horrible!

I get it. Just because they trail only the Panthers and Seahawks in wins the past four weeks is no reason to start lavishing high praise on Gus Bradley's bunch.

But they almost look like they know what they're doing. It's exciting. And last week's come-from-in-front-and-then-behind win demonstrated poise and resilience.

The Houston Texans have lost 10 in a row and are giving points on the road. Don't overthink it.

Pick: Jacksonville +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Washington Redskins

Rob Carr/Getty Images

I considered taking the Washington Redskins at six points. At 3.5, I laughed.

The quarterback, who was acquired for a king's ransom, is lost.

Sometimes he looks like the old Robert Griffin III. Other times, he can't decide what he should do on a particular play. The result is some mediocre effort that more often than not aids the opponent.

Touchdown or higher, or I can back the sinking Shanahans. 

Plus, the Kansas City Chiefs aren't the type of team to lose four in a row. They haven't put together a complete game in a month. But there's too much balanced talent and competencies at the key positions to continue dropping games. 

Pick: Kansas City -3.5

Minnesota Vikings (+7) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

There's a theory that after teams play the Seahawks or 49ers, they're beat up and will struggle the next week. It's safe to assume we can add playing in the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry to that hypothesis. 

Those clashes always bring a certain level of intensity that has to drain the players, regardless of what they say during the week. And that effect is only amplified by the fact that it's Week 14. 

So give me the seven points and the luckless Minnesota Vikings. The Ravens won't be sharp enough to justify such an expensive selection. 

Pick: Minnesota +7

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots (-11.5)

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

My first instinct, which I often follow this early in the week, is to take all of those points. It's a heaping pile of security in a crazy, parity-driven world. 

But I can't do it. Not when Brandon Weeden is involved. 

The Cleveland Browns defense continues to cause problems for opposing offenses. Unfortunately, Cleveland's offense can rarely do anything other than throw it to Josh Gordon. While that's a good strategy, you have to have at least one other option to keep teams honest. The Browns don't.

Plus, the Patriots are too powerful offensively to miss on two straight covers against bad teams. I have to believe that Tom Brady can put up two more touchdowns than Weeden.

Pick: New England -11.5

Oakland Raiders (+3) vs. New York Jets

Jason O. Watson/Getty Images

In this week's Tough Times conference championship, the New York Jets play host to the Oakland Raiders.

On one side, the Raiders let opponents put up college-like stat lines, like Nick Foles' seven-touchdown, 406-yard performance a month ago.

The other? The Jets can't even figure out how to throw a touchdown pass of its own. Their quarterbacks have thrown a grand total of two touchdowns in the past seven weeks. 

There's no way you can lay points with those quarterbacks. A good game by the defensive front can be wasted pretty easily when your offense is incapable of scoring. 

Pick: Oakland +3

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

The Cincinnati Bengals are quickly rising up my frustration power rankings. In fact, they're only one spot removed from the dreaded San Diego Chargers.

In case you haven't been following along, it has nothing to do with anything legitimate. I can't peg when the Bengals or Chargers will show up, which has cost me picks in each of the last four weeks at least.

But don't discount the Indianapolis Colts in these rankings. They love to beat the San Francisco 49ers in convincing style one week and then get their doors blown off by a fringe team the next. 

You see where this is going right? I'm closing my eyes and taking the points, because there is no rhyme or reason to how these two teams will play.

Pick: Indianapolis +5.5

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-4)

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Dear "flex schedulers," what are you waiting for? Nobody wants to watch Atlanta take on Green Bay on Sunday night. Well, except for my girlfriend, since that matchup would significantly up the odds of a movie night.

As for the game itself, we're going to learn a lot about the Carolina Panthers. We already know they are a very good team, but marching into the Super Dome is an entirely different animal.

That's why I have to back the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints getting destroyed in Seattle hammered home what a great home crowd can do. And if the 12th Man can do that to Drew Brees and Sean Payton, I'm not ready to take that big of a leap of faith in Cam Newton and Riverboat Ron Rivera. 

Pick: New Orleans -4

Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Here's your runner-up to flex-game status. And, in case you haven't picked up on it yet, I really don't want to watch the Packers and Falcons. Gross.

As for the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, taking the points would be fool's gold. Sure, the Lions' third-ranked rush defense can give NFL second-leading rusher LeSean McCoy fits, but the Eagles are well equpped to put up large numbers on Detroit.

The way to attack Detroit is with short and intermediate passes that get the ball into the hands of your playmakers quickly. This will exploit a huge mismatch since the Lions have nobody in the secondary who can tackle consistently.

Factor in the inevitable turnover or four from the Lions offense and you have your pick.

Pick: Philadelphia -3

Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Last week was a not-so-harsh reminder that trusting the Pittsburgh Steelers giving points is still putting your faith (and money) in a team with a losing record. Had it not been for head coach Mike Tomlin's "inadvertent" move, the game would have certainly ended as a loss.

Regardless, the lesson has been learned without a blemish to the record. I won't be making that mistake again. 

I can understand your hesitancy to back the Miami Dolphins. They haven't exactly marched through this season after starting 3-0, but they defend the pass well, which is all you need to stop the Steelers. 

Pick: Miami +3

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Has everybody forgotten that the Buffalo Bills are 4-8? I understand that they have some nice building blocks, but at some point, losing two-thirds of your games is a problem.

True, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers already have nine losses, but they have a different feel. The Bucs have at least strung together a few wins and they come at a discounted home-field rate since it's usually three points.

Plus, I'm coming around to Mike Glennon. I've had the non-pleasure of watching him against the Lions—he might be good. He stands tall in the pocket and makes the right read more often than not, which is impressive for any rookie.

Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos (-12)

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans put themselves on the outside looking in for a playoff spot when they blew a home game to the formerly winless Jaguars. Sure, Jacksonville is no longer in the completely incompetent pile, but playoff teams don't lost to Jacksonville. At home.

And non-playoffs team don't beat Peyton Manning.

That's all the analysis you really need.

Nobody is within 10 touchdowns of this year's MVP. He's been shredding defenses all year and now has the division title and home-field advantage within his sights. How do you think he'll play this week?

Pick: Denver -12

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

The St. Louis Rams aren't good, right? Can we officially call them dead for 2013?

Because I'm a little bit worried. The Rams still have a couple defensive ends who can harass an offense into mistakes (remember Carson Palmer?) and Tavon Austin has finally been fed the ball more often.

But then I remember that Kellen Clemens will be staring into the teeth of that Arizona Cardinals defense with the crowd jumping all over him. There's probably a reason or two that he hasn't made it as a starter. Here's betting one might get exposed in this situation.

How bad could Palmer mess that up?

Ugh. I'm suddenly not feeling so well.

Pick: Arizona -6.5

New York Giants (+3) vs. San Diego Chargers

Elsa/Getty Images

Welcome to this week's installment of "Why I Hate the San Diego Chargers."

This week's featured guest is offensive tackle D.J. Fluker. And, to be fair, I only hate the Chargers and him this week because I didn't see him giving up seven hurries to the Bengals. I should have seen that coming. 

Regardless, the season-long miscalculation continues with the Chargers, who have yet to win a single bet for me all season. At least, that's how it feels, meaning it's probably accurate.

As for the New York Giants, except for a slip against the Raiders, we've been making sweet covers for weeks. That's honestly all I need.

Stay incredibly hard to predict, San Diego. 

Pick: New York +3

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers are the middle child of the NFL. They're not getting nearly enough attention despite all of their achievements.

Don't believe me?

They're 8-4, and all four of those losses have come to teams that are leading their respective divisions. Sure, one of them was a shellacking at home, but the Colts seemed to be doing that to everyone during that span. It was a weird time. Like the '80s.

The Niners have also put together the fourth-highest point differential and are getting healthy at the right time. I can't say the same for Seahawks, even if the young, unheralded guys keep making plays. I'd rather put my cash on Michael Crabtree than Jermaine Kearse.

Pick: San Francisco -3

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (off)

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

If you've been reading along and didn't just skip to this slide (not that I blame you if you did), then you know how big of a "fan" I am of this game. So let's get this over with.

Aaron Rodgers continues to be a question mark. The latest reports go back and forth between his affirmation that he will play and the team's need to be careful with their franchise quarterback. 

Obviously, if he does play, the line will skyrocket in favor of the Green Bay Packers, but that's one of the few advantages to doing your picks so early in the week.

So I'm going to take the Packers and hope that I'm not subjected to any more of this game than the highlights. Hopefully, Rodgers plays; if not, Matt Flynn will perform better than last week since the Atlanta Falcons pass rush falls somewhere between nonexistent and dormant.

And do you really think Atlanta can win two road games in a row?

Pick: Green Bay OFF

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears (PK)

Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

What's the benefit of picking the Dallas Cowboys?

They've been notably mediocre for almost the last two decades. Now I'm supposed to bet on them to go three games over .500?

And have you seen that defense? There's no way the Cowboys figure out how to stop the two-headed beast of a wide receiving corps that is Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall.

Lastly, they aren't getting any points in a road game.

So I ask again: What's the benefit?

Pick: Chicago Pick 'Em